Analysis: Trump wants a 2016 repeat in a very different year

In summer of 2016, Donald Trump was trailing in polls. With time running out, he changed up his campaign leadership team, though t his own mercurial behaviour.

Four years later, and in midst of ar summer slump, Trump is hoping a similar campaign shakeup will help put him on path to ar come-from-behind victory in vember, this time against Democrat Joe Biden.

But re are multiple reasons why 2020 is a very different campaign year for Trump.

Chief among m is Trump’s own positioning. Trump ran in 2016 as an outsider, someone who could shake up Washington and bring a businessman’s acumen to federal government. w, he’s chief executive in Washington at a time of extraordinary national crises and facing overwhelmingly negative reviews from Americans for his handling of COVID-19 pandemic and for his response to a national reckoning over race.

issue that needs to be addressed, according to some Republicans, isn’t how Trump’s campaign is run. It’s Trump himself.

“This campaign’s problem is president is alienating so many people that ir pool of potential voters is getting dangerously too small to win,” said Brendan Buck, a Republican who advised former House Speaker Paul Ryan. “Until that changes, good campaign manment is going to be insufficient.”

Indeed, Trump has often appeared to be out of step with most Americans in recent months. He all but declared victory over coronavirus pandemic as infections were starting to surge in new pockets across country, including in states like Florida, Texas and Arizona where he’s enjoyed strong support. He’s shown little concrete interest in police reform following deaths of Black Americans and has instead focused much of his energy on defending prominent displays of Confederate monuments.

president and his campaign advisers say y’ve been here before, fighting against what y see as establishment forces that don’t reflect scope of Trump’s self-proclaimed “silent majority” of supporters. y repeatedly point to polling from 2016 that showed Trump on track to lose to his Democratic challenger, Hillary Clinton.

But privately, Trump’s campaign and outside advisers ackwledge that president’s situation is dire and showing signs of improvement. campaign is worried about its support with moderate Republicans and independents, suburban woman and older white voters — all groups that could find a comfortable home with Biden, who was among most centrist Democrats in 2020 race.

Wednesday’s ouster of campaign manr Brad Parscale was campaign’s clearest ackwledgement that Trump’s reelection effort is in need of a course correction. Parscale, whose role had already been diminished, was replaced by Bill Stepien, an experienced GOP operative.

Some Republicans welcomed change but said it would only matter if it signalled start of a revamped campaign.

“Resets are important in campaigns as long as you take full advant of fresh start,” said Scott Reed, a senior political strategist at U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He said campaign was in need of both a “new and improved level of mess discipline that includes White House staff,” and a robust battleground state strategy.

Trump’s 2020 campaign apparatus was initially supposed to be major advant he didn’t have four years ago when he set out to run for president with a small, inexperienced clutch of advisers. He set up his reelection campaign quickly after his inauguration, drawing in more experienced Republican hands and amassing a formidable bank account for advertising and field operations.

Those resources were supposed to be used to sell strong ecomy Trump planned to run on in vember. Instead, campaign is urging voters to stick with Trump through downturn that has accompanied pandemic. campaign is also leaning hard into barely coded racial rhetoric Trump has used following nationwide protests over police brutality against Black Americans, warning of violence in cities with large mirity populations.

campaign has also struggled to launch a formidable assault on Biden, who is familiar to many Americans after his eight years as vice president and is more well-liked than Clinton. After spending months trying to cast Biden as “sleepy” and past his prime, advisers have been urging Trump to level two main attacks: accusing Biden of being soft on China and painting former vice president as a puppet for liberal Democrats, despite his more moderate record.

Trump’s weakened state has indeed been cheered by Democrats, who view his handling of pandemic in particular as an “I told you so” moment for a president y’ve long contended is out of his depth in Oval Office. Yet many in party say y are still scarred from Trump’s upset win four years ago and wary of over-reading current political state of play.

With few high-profile campaign events this year because of pandemic restrictions, Biden’s campaign is well aware that three debates this fall will likely take on outsize importance.

And Priorities USA, a super PAC backing Biden, projected this week that a single-digit drop in Biden’s support among white working-class voters or a small drop in turut among mirity voters in vember could swing race back in president’s favour.

“While numbers certainly have been encouraging for Democrats, we are t done and we still have more work to do to maintain, to retain gains that we’ve made,” said Guy Cecil, chair of Priorities USA.

one intangible that is giving Democrats confidence? likelihood that Trump himself won’t change, even if chess pieces around him do.

“Observing his behaviour, I have concluded he is like man who refuses to ask for directions,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said.