Biden's ambitious energy plan faces headwinds, but can move the US forward

President-elect Joe Biden calls climate change an existential threat to America’s environment, health, national security and ecomy, and has promised a clean energy revolution to counter it. Biden has pledged that on his first day in office he will bring U.S. back into Paris Climate Agreement . He also is expected to restore numerous environmental protections that Trump ministration has weakened or revoked, and to cancel oil and gas leasing in Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

Beyond dam repair, Biden has big plans for American energy . In my view, t all of m are realistic. Yet ir actual purpose may be as starting points for negotiation. Based on my experience analyzing U.S. energy industry, I see three factors that will influence what his ministration can achieve.

First, election did t produce a “green wave” of support, so Biden does t have a clear mandate for sweeping change in this sector. Second, Biden is progressive firebrand, and it is unclear how hard he will fight for all his energy policy goals. Third, depending on outcome of Georgia Senate ruffs in January , Democrats may t control Senate. But it is important to te that a Republican Senate would t necessarily spell doom for progress on energy.

Policies and politics

centerpiece of Biden’s energy and climate proposals is a call for investing US$1.7 trillion over 10 years to promote a portfolio of clean energy techlogies . It would support vancing electric vehicles, building a national vehicle charging network, accelerating smart grid and battery stor, scaling up tax credits for renewable techlogies and nurturing next-generation energy sources like hydrogen and vanced nuclear power plants.

Or key plans involve upgring millions of public and commercial buildings to make m more energy efficient; providing public transport options for every American city with 100,000 or more residents; and hiring up to 250,000 workers to locate, plug and reclaim tens of thousands of abandoned oil, gas, coal and hard rock mines in dozens of states.

This partial list shows how bro and diverse Biden’s nda is. While Biden insists it is t based on Green New Deal , it embraces some clear progressive elements, such as achieving zero-carbon power generation in 15 years and installing 500 million solar panels by 2025 .

How will Congress respond? As one indicator, Senate is currently considering a large energy bill that focuses on efficiency and energy research and development, including renewables and nuclear power. Sponsored by Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, and Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., S.2657 involves less investment and a smaller government role than Biden favors, but has received a muted reception.

Even a bill to make national electric grid more secure and reliable, which would seem like a win for both parties, is likely to be a battleground. Experience since early 2010s shows that GOP will resist any infrastructure legislation with provisions for dealing with climate change , which includes grid modernization.

Or opposition could come from a number of 31 Republican-controlled state legislatures, which have significant influence over infrastructure projects within ir borders. Biden also could face challenges from progressive Democrats who don’t want to compromise with Republicans.

If this nda were divided into a number of smaller bills, parts of it might find traction with GOP. Continued tax credits for solar and wind installations, and possibly for purchases of electric vehicles, could draw support from legislators representing states like Texas, Iowa and Neva where se industries are big employers. Energy R&D partnerships with private firms would also stand a reasonable chance.

Yet such measures will t achieve big goals Biden has in mind. Major progress may require winning Senate in 2022 and retaining Democratic control of House of Representatives, as well as bridging divisions among Democrats .

What Biden can do without Congress

Biden also can do a lot with executive orders . To begin with, he can rescind Trump’s orders promoting fossil fuels ; tighten limits on fugitive methane emissions from oil and gas wells, refineries and or sources; and raise fuel ecomy standards for motor vehicles.

Or potential targets include new energy efficiency standards for consumer goods and industrial equipment; new electric vehicle purchase requirements for government fleets; and directives for federal ncies to reduce ir greenhouse gas emissions and promote electricity from ncarbon sources. Biden has me clear that he will also require federal ncies to dress environmental and energy justice matters, such as increased pollution burdens and higher energy costs in areas where poorer families and people of color live.

Biden served for 36 years in Senate, and has said that he expects to compromise on his goals and hopes that respect from GOP colleagues will allow for give on or side. He also kws that energy is a key national security issue and that exports of oil and natural gas give U.S. an important degree of geopolitical sway.

I expect that, given his pragmatism, Biden will be reluctant to join progressives in demonizing oil industry, which supplies nearly all fuel for U.S. military. r does he likely believe, as he shouldn’t, that over 50% of country’s power generation can be switched from natural gas (39%) and coal (20%) to ncarbon sources in 15 years. This of timeline is useful to show what’s needed to avoid worst climate impacts. But as a realist and seasoned negotiator, Biden likely views such a schedule as a starting point.

All things considered, Biden ministration should be able to make progress on lowering greenhouse gas emissions and vancing ncarbon energy. Movement is likely to be incremental at first, but with garing momentum. This will please some and enr ors.

It would be wrong to underestimate eir Biden’s experience or difficulties he faces. One point in his favor is that pandemic has me public more receptive to government spending at high levels. Ar is that Americans – including a majority of Republicans – increasingly support government action on climate change . Harnessing this consensus could help Biden vance his energy goals.