California: America's UP, but Not the Political Powerhouse It Seems

US Elections Results 2024: A spokesperson for U.S. envoy Eric Garcetti said “California is Uttar Pradesh to the USA.” Uttar Pradesh (UP) and California share similarities—both hubs of innovation, culture, and economic power. Yet, there is one crucial distinction: their political influence.

In India, the road to power in Delhi often runs through Uttar Pradesh. With 80 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, UP is the most consequential state in the national political arena. The party that wins big in UP usually has the upper hand in forming the government at the Centre, ultimately deciding who will be India’s Prime Minister.

In contrast, while California holds a dominant position in the United States due to its sheer size and economic clout, its political significance is far less fluid. California, with 54 electoral votes—the most of any U.S. state—has long been a stronghold of the Democratic Party. While its vote is crucial, it is not a battleground state that could swing the outcome of a presidential election.

California's Predictable Democratic Leaning

In the 2024 U.S. election, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is expected to easily carry California, just as Joe Biden did in 2020, securing 64% of the vote to Donald Trump 's 35%. The state’s overwhelming support for Democratic candidates means that California’s 54 electoral votes are more of a given than a decisive swing.

This predictable loyalty has led to California's position as a "safe" state for Democrats, leaving little room for surprise. In addition to its electoral votes, California also holds a strong Democratic presence in both U.S. Senate seats, the majority of U.S. House seats, and the governorship, alongside supermajorities in its state legislature.

Uttar Pradesh: The Political Kingmaker

Unlike California, Uttar Pradesh (UP) plays an entirely different role in India's political landscape. The state’s 80 Lok Sabha seats make it a key battleground in India’s general elections. As the most populous state in the country, UP holds significant sway in deciding which party will control Parliament, and by extension, who will become the Prime Minister.

The electoral volatility in UP ensures that it remains a crucial prize in national elections. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, Uttar Pradesh’s results are expected to be pivotal. The BJP ’s 2019 landslide victory, where they secured 62 out of 80 seats, stands in stark contrast to their underwhelming performance in 2024, where they clinched only 36 seats. That shift in fortunes dramatically impacted India's political balance, highlighting UP’s importance in national elections.

Not only does UP decide the course of national politics through its Lok Sabha seats, but it also holds symbolic weight as the birthplace of several former Prime Ministers, from Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi to more recent leaders like VP Singh and Chandra Shekhar.

In the U.S., the presidential election outcome is decided by the Electoral College, where each state is awarded a certain number of electoral votes based on its population. California’s 54 votes are significant, but because the state’s allegiance to the Democratic Party is well established, the outcome of California’s vote is rarely in question. 

As a result, while California plays a key role in cementing Democratic victories, its predictability diminishes its power to shift the balance of the entire nation’s political direction. Even if California’s voters overwhelmingly back a candidate, their vote is often a foregone conclusion, a component of the overall tally, but not necessarily a game-changer.

California: The UP of the U.S.?

While both California and Uttar Pradesh are vital to their respective countries' economies, cultures, and electorates, California lacks the political unpredictability and strategic significance that UP holds in India. In Indian politics, UP’s volatile nature ensures it can alter the entire national landscape, making it the cornerstone of electoral strategies for all major political parties. In the U.S., however, California’s solid Democratic support makes it a dependable, though not pivotal, state in the presidential race.

In the U.S. presidential race, swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan ultimately hold the power to decide the winner. California, for all its size and importance, doesn’t have that same role. In the game of politics, UP remains the true kingmaker, while California is a reliable, though non-decisive, player.