At edge of an ancient lava flow where jagged black rocks meet Pacific, small off--grid homes overlook calm blue waters of Papa Bay on Hawaii’s Big Island — tourists or hotels in sight. Here, one of islands’ most abundant and vibrant coral reefs thrives just below surface. Yet even this remote shoreline far from impacts of chemical sunscreen, trampling feet and industrial wastewater is showing early signs of what’s expected to be a catastrophic season for coral in Hawaii.

Reason for bleached corals

Just four years after a major marine heatwave killed nearly half of this coastline’s coral, federal researchers are predicting ar round of hot water will cause some of worst coral bleachings region has ever seen. “In 2015, we hit temperatures that we’ve never recorded ever in Hawaii,” said Jamison Gove, an oceagrapher with National Oceanic and Atmospheric ministration. “What is really important — or alarming, probably more appropriately — about this event is that we’ve been tracking above where we were at this time in 2015.” 

Researchers using high-tech equipment to monitor Hawaii’s reefs are seeing early signs of bleaching in Papa Bay and elsewhere caused by a marine heatwave that has sent temperatures soaring to record highs for months. June, July, and parts of August all experienced hottest ocean temperatures ever recorded around Hawaiian Islands. So far in September, oceanic temperatures are below only those seen in 2015. Forecasters expect high temperatures in rth Pacific will continue to pump heat into Hawaii’s waters well into October.

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Rising oceanic temperatures

“Temperatures have been warm for quite a long time,” Gove said. “It’s t just how hot it is — it’s how long those ocean temperatures stay warm.” Ocean temperatures are t uniformly warm across state, Gove ted. Local wind patterns, currents and even features on land can create hot spots in water. “You have things like two giant volcaes on Big Island blocking predominant tre winds,” making island’s west coast, where Papa Bay sits, one of hottest parts of state, Gove said. He said he expects “severe” coral bleaching in those places. “This is widespre, 100% bleaching of most corals,” Gove said. And many of those corals are still recovering from 2015 bleaching event, meaning y are more susceptible to rmal stress.

According to AA, heat wave’s causes include a persistent low-pressure wear pattern between Hawaii and Alaska that has weakened winds that orwise might mix and cool surface waters across much of rth Pacific. What’s causing that is unclear: It might reflect atmosphere’s usual chaotic motion, or it could be related to warming of oceans and or effects of human-me climate change. Beyond this event, oceanic temperatures will continue to rise in coming years, Gove said. “re’s question that global climate change is contributing to what we’re experiencing,” he said. For coral, hot water means stress, and prolonged stress kills se creatures and can leave reefs in shambles.

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