Coronavirus' spread in GOP territory, explained in 6 charts

Coronavirus first spread in United States as a mostly coastal and big-city scourge, sparing many rural areas, small towns and even small cities. Translated into U.S. political geography: virus hit Democratic areas first.

more. An Associated Press analysis of coronavirus case data shows virus has moved — and is spreading quickly — into Republican areas, a new path with broad potential political ramifications.

States that President Donald Trump won in 2016 election account for about 75% of new cases, a trend that has accelerated since end of May. Counties that voted for Trump in 2016 have seen cases and deaths rising — w seeing an impact nearly even with counties that voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton.

virus's spread into red America could scramble partisan divisions over disease. In first phase, virus was an undeniable reality for many Democrats, and it largely fell to Democratic goverrs and mayors to issue strictest stay-at-home orders that helped slow ecomy to a crawl.

Trump’s base, meanwhile, wasn’t so directly affected. His supporters have been

Already latest surge is forcing

New York’s Democratic goverr, Andrew Cuomo, last week pulled punches in seeking some vindication for himself and or Democrats who battled virus first and faced skepticism from Trump and or Republicans.

“You played politics with this virus, and you lost,” he said on CNN, indirectly addressing Republicans who downplayed virus. “You told people of this state, you told people of this country, White House: ‘Don’t worry about it. Go about your business. This is all Democratic hyperbole.’”

“It was never politics,” Cuomo said. “It was always science.”

Counties won by Trump are seeing new cases in last week at almost same rate as those counties that Trump lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016. To be clear, cases are increasing in both groups. But that follows Clinton counties having a declining share of new cases for much of spring after imposing initial rounds of social distancing guidelines and restrictions on business and public garings.

As with COVID-19 cases, distribution of deaths has leveled off as well. initial surge in March and early April occurred in Democratic counties. But those counties n saw a sharp drop in deaths per million residents. Trump counties, meanwhile, moved urd, stabilized and n started falling, but at a lower clip than Democratic counties. w, re's a much narrower gap between two groups.

Perhaps most marked reversal when measuring coronavirus trends by political geography comes when looking at cases on a state-by-state basis. Those that Clinton won in 2016 accounted for considerable majorities of earliest cases. Well into March, those states diagsed four out of five new cases. But since n, trend lines have taken opposite trajectories. States Trump won account for about three out of four of newest cases.

COVID-19 deaths broken down by states' presidential vote yields similar conclusions. Initial measures showed spikes in Clinton's 2016 territory, with Trump's states lagging. But trend lines through spring brought parity, and Trump states have on occasion surpassed Clinton states in rates of new deaths.

One clear pattern: a state's goverr seems to matter. New cases in states with Republican goverrs, regardless of how those states voted in 2016, w considerably outpace those in states run by Democrats. That circumstance comes after months of trending away from initial analysis, when Democratic states were hotspots. That trend roughly reflects how two parties' goverrs have approached pandemic. GOP goverrs generally have leaned more heavily in favor of lighter government restrictions on social garings and business operations. Democratic goverrs, on aver, have embraced stricter restrictions and more forcefully advocated for caution.

pattern is repeated when looking at deaths. States with Republican goverrs have seen an increase as an overall share of national measure. Democratic-run states, meanwhile, have dropped over time. In recent weeks, re's been rough parity and smaller spikes and drops between two groups of states. But it's ar table correlation between public health outcomes and policies goverrs have chosen.