Growing uncertainty looms over Dems’ 2020 primary

Look furr than Pearl City Station, a plain brick building set along banks of Mississippi River, to understand growing sense of uncertainty seeping into Democratic Party’s 2020 primary contest.

Inside, 200 Iowa Democrats recently sized up Joe Biden, former vice president and one of ir party’s leing presidential candidates. He ens respect and miration, but generates little excitement.

One elderly man sitting in back of room fell asleep as former vice president shared his vision for America’s future in unusually hushed tones for nearly 45 minutes without taking questions.

Afterward, David Metz, a member of county Democratic committee, said that despite a campaign season that has alrey featured millions of dollars spent, countless miles logged and four debates std, re is a deepening feeling of indecision among local voters who w have less than 100 days to finalize ir 2020 pick.

“body kws what to do,” Metz said. “y’re all afraid. re’s a lot of anxiety.”

In almost every campaign cycle, re comes a phase of indifference, fear and difficult questions. But in 2020 cycle, Democratic officials hoped that fervent desire to beat Trump would eventually le to an enthusiastic embrace of its presidential field.

lack of enthusiasm for Biden’s candidacy underscores a broer trend emerging in states that matter most in Democratic Party’s high-stakes presidential mination fight: Primary voters appear to be getting less certain of ir choice as Election Day approaches.

historically large field, while in part of measure of desire to oust incumbent president, has also me it harder for top contenders to forge a more focused contest. Nine Democrats so far have qualified for party’s vember debate and a dozen more are still fighting for attention. Among top tier, liabilities of Biden, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders, in particular — are becoming more visible as Iowa’s Feb. 3 caucuses approach.

Major dors and party leers across country have publicly and privately raised concerns about direction of primary election recently as well. But interviews with dozens of primary voters across Iowa and New Hampshire in recent days reveal a pervasive feeling of unease.

Polling suggests that number of undecided voters in Iowa has jumped significantly in recent weeks. And even among those who have a favorite candidate, most say y could change ir mind before voting begins.

Tom Steyer, a billionaire progressive activist, is among those lower-tier candidates aggressively fighting to capitalize on uncertainty. He’s vowed to spend at least $100 million of his own money in campaign, although he ackwledged in a weekend interview that his investment could shift up or down depending on conditions on ground.

“We’re three months out from Iowa and we thought that re would be a lot of indecision, but it’s definitely higher than we would have expected. question,” Steyer said. “That is something that has to be true if I’m going to win. And it is true.”

Just ask voters.

In New Hampshire, Greg Bruss, a 68-year-old retired teacher, says he’s usually volunteering for a candidate by this time in primary cycle. That’s t case this year as he mulls voting for eir Sanders or Warren.

“ times are that much more dire,” Bruss said. “I don’t want to get it wrong.”

Former New Hampshire state Sen. Bette Lasky says she’s impressed with Democratic field, but she’s remained on sidelines as well, even after hosting house parties for several candidates.

“Generally, I don’t have trouble making up my mind,” she said. “But (it’s) difficult for me to get out re behind any one candidate.”

Back in Iowa, 43-year-old Waterloo school employee Danielle Borglum said she expected to finalize her decision after watching last debate, but she couldn’t do it.

“I didn’t realize amount of people that we h as candidates!” Borglum said. “So many people have a plan. Is anyone really right?”

Bev Alderson, a 59-year-old retired teacher from Mt. Pleasant, Iowa, said she has “a couple of frontrunners, but y’re t etched in stone.”

“re’s too much to be said yet. re’s too many things that are happening and going on, it’s just too early,” she said.

While significant, history suggests that uncertainty currently defining 2020 primary season is t totally unique.

Before Iowa’s 2004 contest, for example, former House Majority Leer Richard Gephardt, Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman and Vermont Gov. Howard Dean all led polls at times before n-Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry me a late surge to win.

And three months before Iowa’s 2008 Democratic caucuses, most polls h Hillary Clinton with a significant le over John Edwards and a little-kwn Illiis senator named Barack Obama. Obama, of course, went on to win Iowa caucuses by almost 8 points and Clinton finished third.

That history, backed by polling that shows most voters could still change ir minds, is convincing low-polling underdog candidates to keep fighting.

“One of things I’ve learned by listening to people of Iowa is y tend to make up ir minds fairly close to caucus night,” former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke told reporters during a forum in Des Moines last week.

New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, who hasn’t topped 2% in any Iowa poll since June, said he was encourd by a crowd of 200 that showed up to see him speak night before. He said he’s getting a clear mess from voters who say, ”‘I’m excited about you — you’re first on my list, or you’ve moved up from four to two,’ which I’m learning is really important in Iowa caucuses.”

And former Housing Secretary Julian Castro warned supporters last week that he’d need to raise $800,000 by end of month to keep his campaign alive. But he, too, seized on large number of undecideds.

primary campaign, Castro said, is “more unstable than it’s ever been.”

“You have a lot of people in se polls that, even though y express a preference for one candidate or ar, are saying that y can still change ir mind,” he said. He ded: “Three months is probably 10 lifetimes in politics.”

Jennifer Konfrst, a first-term Iowa state senator, agrees.

She’s supporting Booker, but she says many of her friends have alrey changed ir minds about which candidate y like best.

“So many of my friends have three top choices — and y’re t same three,” she said. “Anybody who says y kw what’s going to happen is lying.”

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Woodall reported from Manchester, New Hampshire.