Here's why did the power grid failed in Texas and beyond

power outs tormenting Texas in uncharacteristically Arctic temperatures are exposing weaknesses in an electricity system designed when wear's seasonal shifts were more consistent and predictable — conditions that most experts believe longer exist.

This isn't just happening in Texas, of course. Utilities from Minnesota to Mississippi have imposed rolling blackouts to ease strain on electrical grids buckling under high demand during past few days. And power outs have become a rite of summer and autumn in California, partly to reduce chances of deadly wildfires.

But fact more than 3 million bone-chilled Texans have lost ir electricity in a state that takes pride in its energy independence underscores gravity of a problem that is occurring in U.S. with increasing frequency.

WHAT HAPPENED IN TEXAS?

Plunging temperatures caused Texans to turn up ir heaters, including many inefficient electric ones. Demand spiked to levels rmally seen only on hottest summer days, when millions of air conditioners run at full tilt.

state has a generating capacity of about 67,000 megawatts in winter compared with a peak capacity of about 86,000 megawatts in summer. gap between winter and summer supply reflects power plants going offline for maintenance during months when demand typically is less intense and re's t as much energy coming from wind and solar sources.

But planning for this winter didn’t imagine temperatures cold eugh to freeze natural gas supply lines and stop wind turbines from spinning. By Wednesday, 46,000 megawatts of power were offline statewide — 28,000 from natural gas, coal and nuclear plants and 18,000 from wind and solar, according to Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which operates state’s power grid.

“Every one of our sources of power supply underperformed," Daniel Cohan, an associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at Rice University in Houston, tweeted . “Every one of m is vulnerable to extreme wear and climate events in different ways. ne of m were adequately wearized or prepared for a full realm of wear and conditions."

staggering imbalance between Texas' energy supply and demand also caused prices to skyrocket from roughly $20 per megawatt hour to $9,000 per megawatt hour in state's freewheeling wholesale power market.

That raised questions wher some power generators who buy in wholesale market may have had a profit motive to avoid buying more natural gas and simply shut down instead.

“We can’t speculate on people’s motivations in that way,” said Bill Magness, CEO of ERCOT. He added he had been told by generators that y were doing everything possible to provide power.

WHY WASN'T STATE PREPARED?

Gas-fired plants and wind turbines can be protected against winter wear — it’s done routinely in colder, rrn states. issue arose in Texas after a 2011 freeze that also led to power-plant shutdowns and blackouts. A national electric-industry group developed winterization guidelines for operators to follow, but y are strictly voluntary and also require expensive investments in equipment and or necessary measures.

An ERCOT official, Dan Woodfin, said plant upgrades after 2011 limited shutdowns during a similar cold snap in 2018, but this week’s wear was “more extreme.”

Ed Hirs, an energy fellow at University of Houston, rejected ERCOT’s claim that this week’s freeze was unforeseeable.

“That’s nsense,” he said. “Every eight to 10 years we have really bad winters. This is t a surprise.”

In California, regulators last week ordered state’s three major utilities to increase ir power supply and potentially make plant improvements to avoid ar supply short like one that cropped up in California six months ago and resulted in rolling blackouts affecting about 500,000 people for a few hours at a time.

“One big difference is that leadership in California recognizes that climate change is happening, but that doesn’t seem to be case in Texas,” said Severin Borenstein, a professor of business administration and public policy at University of California, Berkeley who has been studying power supply issues for more than 20 years.

WHY NEED FOR ROLLING BLACKOUTS?

Grid operators say rolling blackouts are a last resort when power demand overwhelms supply and threatens to create a wider collapse of whole power system. Texas can’t bring in much power from or states because its grid — by design — is largely isolated, with only limited interconnections to ors.

Usually, utilities black out certain blocks or zones before cutting off power to ar area, n ar. By rolling blackouts, neighborhoods are supposed to go an unfairly long period of time without power, but that was t always case this week in Texas. Some areas never lost power, while ors were blacked out for 12 hours or longer as temperatures dipped into single digits.

Often areas with hospitals, fire stations, water-treatment plants and or key facilities are spared.

WHEN DO Y OCCUR?

Rolling blackouts are usually triggered when reserves fall below a certain level. In Texas, as in California last August, grid operators tell utilities to reduce load on entire system, and it is up to utilities to decide how to do that.

In Texas this week, grid operators and utilities knew about dire wear forecast for at least a week. Last weekend y issued appeals for power conservation, and ERCOT tweeted that residents should “unplug fancy new appliances you bought during pandemic and only used once."

ligharted attempts at humor were lost on residents, few if any of whom were told in advance when ir homes would lose power. Once outs started, some utilities were unable to provide information about how long y might last.

WHAT CAN BE DONE TO REDUCE ROLLING BLACKOUTS?

Start with obvious steps: When power companies or grid operators warn about trouble coming, turn down your rmostat and avoid using major appliances.

Those steps are sometimes easier said than done. When record-breaking cold descended on Texas, residents turned up inefficient electric heaters to stay warm, straining supplies just as a chunk of state's natural gas and wind power generators were kcked offline by freeze.

Like in or places, Texans might be more willing to adjust ir rmostats a few more tches if regulators imposed a system that required households to pay higher prices during periods of peak demand and lower rates at or times.

“People turn up ir furnaces w because re isn't a financial incentive for m t to do it," Borenstein said.

Experts also say more fundamental — and costly — changes must be made. Generators must insulate pipelines and or equipment. Investments in electricity stor and distribution would help. Tougher building codes would make homes in places like Texas better insulated against cold.

Texas, which has a grid largely disconnected from ors to avoid federal regulation, may have to rethink go-it-alone strategy. re could be pressure for state to require power generators to keep more plants in reserve for times of peak demand, a step it has so far resisted.

“ system as we built it is t performing to standards we would like to see,” said Joshua Rhodes, an energy researcher at University of Texas in Austin. “We need to do a better job. If that involves paying more for energy to have more reliability, that’s a conversation we’re going to have to have.”

(Im credit: AP)