For Florida, just a handful of miles may make a huge difference in Hurricane Dorian’s slow dance with coast. National Hurricane Center forecasts Dorian to be 40 to 50 miles off Florida coast on September 03 and 04, with hurricane-force wind speeds extending about 35 miles to west. When y make a forecast, meteorologists have a general idea where monstrous storm is going but y n have to choose a point on map inste of a general place, making it seem more specific than it really is. And much of Florida coast is inside that cone.

“This thing is perilously close to state. I think we should all hope and pray for best, but we have to prepare that this could have major impacts on state of Florida,” said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. “If you look at National Hurricane Center’s current track, I think it ends up within 30 miles of coast of Florida. Well, guess what? You do just a touch of a bump one way or ar, and you have a dramatic difference all of a sudden.”

Center Director Ken Graham is telling residents don’t bet on safety just because his office-specific forecast track has storm just a bit offshore.

“ cone is so important,” Graham said.

And making matters more touch-and-go is that with every new forecast, “we keep nudging (Dorian’s track) a little bit to left,” which is closer to Florida coast, he said.

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Hurricane Dorian: Small yet powerful

Dorian is a powerful but small hurricane with hurricane-force winds Sunday only extending 29 miles to west, but y are expecting to grow a bit. That makes forecasting storm’s path along coast — eir just off coast, skirting it or moving inland with a direct hit — delicate and difficult. Just a few miles west or east makes difference between devastation and b but t horrible dam, meteorologists said.

“Where it doesn’t directly hit, it’s t going to be a huge problem,” Coloro State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach said.

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Florida under serious threat

With a big, sloppy hurricane — say 50% larger in size — all of Florida would be under a serious threat, but that’s t case, said University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian Mcldy. This is what makes this a nightmare for forecasters, Mcldy said. It’s a combination of small size, close-in track, like Matw in 2016, and weak steering currents. That means just a smidge of a movement days ahe of time, while Dorian is in Bahamas, can reverberate and mean a direct hit or t, said private meteorologist Ryan Maue. That can happen just because of timing of when Dorian’s eyewall collapses and is replaced, which happens rmally in storms.

ding to that problem is Dorian’s slow, almost snail-like pace. What initially looked like a Labor Day storm for U.S. is w approaching Tuesday and Wednesday. “People are getting impatient with this,” Mcldy said. Because threat seems to keep sticking around, it could be a problem getting right mess across, he said. Klotzbach said he thinks U.S. East Coast will get “scraped,” but Dorian will stay just offshore, something Maue agrees with.

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Maue warns, however, that two days of high waves and heavy storm surge — hurricane center is predicting 4 to 7 feet from West Palm Beach rth to Cocoa Beach area — could severely dam Florida’s beaches. Residents along Florida’s coast are relieved that forecast, for w, doesn’t have Dorian making landfall in Florida, but are still preparing for worst. Kevin Browning in Vero Beach has put up hurricane shutters, bought a generator and is stocked with supplies.

“I’m thanking God, w, that it’s turned a little bit towards east, but that’s a forecast, and we never kw. I’m just praying and trying to make sure that everybody’s safe. I feel for Bahamas and I’m praying for m, and I thank God it’s t coming directly to us right w.”

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