Kremlin relishes US pullback from Syria, turmoil in Ukraine

From Syria, where U.S. pulled back in face of a Turkish offensive, to Ukraine, where newly elected president saw his im dented by a U.S. impeachment inquiry, new fault lines and tensions offer Kremlin fresh opportunities to expand its clout and vance its interests.

In Syria, U.S. military withdrawal leaves Russia as ultimate power broker, allowing it to help negotiate a potential agreement between Syrian President Bashar Ass and Kurds who were abandoned by Washington. And in Ukraine, where Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a comedian turned president, has found himself drawn into U.S. political battles, Russia may use volatility to push for a deal that would secure its lever over its western neighbor.

Turkish troops’ offensive in rrn Syria followed President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw U.S. forces from area, cold shouldering Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, key U.S. ally in fight against Islamic State group.

Washington’s abrupt decision to ditch Kurds contrasted sharply with Moscow’s unwavering support for its ally Ass, which helped his government reclaim bulk of country’s territory in a devastating civil war. Along with military power, Russian President Vlimir Putin has relied on diplomacy to achieve his goals in Syria, reaching out to regional powers — from Iran to Saudi Arabia, Israel and Turkey.

NATO member Turkey has become a particularly important partner for Russia. Even though two countries have backed opposite sides in Syrian conflict, y have pooled efforts to negotiate a de-escalation zone in Syrian province of Idlib and co-sponsor talks on forming a committee that would draft a new Syrian constitution.

Russia-Turkey rapprochement came as Ankara’s relations with Washington grew increasingly chilly and were furr strained over Turkey’s recent purchase of Russian air defense missiles.

Turkey’s offensive in Syria, which has drawn harsh criticism from U.S. and European Union, may w push Moscow and Ankara even closer.

“Russia wants to benefit from that operation, and one of gains could be strengning of ties with Turkey,” said Kirill Semev of Russian International Affairs Council. “ harsh response from Washington, EU reaction, threat of sanctions against Turkey all play into Moscow’s hands by making Moscow and Ankara even closer.”

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called Putin just before unleashing air strikes and an artillery barr on Kurdish-controlled areas in Syria. Ankara charges that Kurdish fighters in Syria are allied with outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, which has led an insurgency against Turkey for 35 years.

While Russia has ted need to respect Syria’s territorial integrity, it also has emphasized Turkey’s right to ensure its security — a benevolent stance contrasting with harsh Western criticism of Turkish offensive. Russia has long urged U.S.-allied Kurdish fighters in Syria to come back to Damascus’ fold, an offer y may need to take more seriously w.

“We heard that both Syrian officials and representatives of Kurdish organizations expressed interest in Russia using its good relations with all parties to process in arranging such talks,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters on Thursday. “We will see what we can do.”

Lavrov also pointed at ar Moscow goal — brokering a dialogue between Turkey and Ass’s government, something Ankara has strongly rejected in past.

“It would be good for Russia to bring Ankara and Damascus to table and have Ankara ackwledge legitimacy of regime in Damascus, if t Ass himself,” Semev said.

In ar power game, Russia hopes to see major gains in its long-running effort to retain lever over its neighbor Ukraine, a former Soviet republic looking to align itself with West. In 2014, Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and threw its support behind a separatist insurgency in eastern Ukraine following ouster of Ukraine’s Moscow-friendly leer, moves that triggered bruising Western sanctions.

Zelenskiy, who was elected by a landslide in April, has vowed to end fighting, which has killed more than 13,000. Early this month, Ukraine, Russia and rebels signed a tentative agreement to hold local elections in east, a deal Zelenskiy insists conforms to a 2015 peace accord that was brokered by France and Germany.

agreement, however, has been criticized by some in Ukraine as “capitulation” to Moscow. On Monday, far-right and nationalist groups are staging a major rally in Kyiv to protest Zelenskiy’s peace plan.

Ukrainian president’s standing has been weakened by political furor in United States, where Democrats in Congress are conducting an impeachment inquiry triggered by his telephone conversation with Trump. In July 25 call, Trump pushed him to open a corruption investigation into Democratic rival Joe Biden and his son. In days before call, Trump ordered a freeze on hundreds of millions of dollars in bly needed U.S. military aid.

Zelenskiy has denied being pressured by Trump, but this past week he encourd U.S. and Ukrainian prosecutors to discuss investigating a gas company linked to Biden’s son, although one has produced evidence of criminal wrongdoing by eir Biden.

White House’s publication of a rough transcript of call was embarrassing for 41-year-old Ukrainian president because it showed him er to please Trump and dismissive of European partners whose support he needs to end conflict in east. While Zelenskiy sought to play it down, it could help Russia by eroding support for Ukraine in Germany and France.

“France and Germany have grown tired of Ukraine and are too busy with ir own problems, and ir only goal is to close issue of war in east by any means,” said Vim Karasev, he of Institute of Global Strategies, an independent Kyiv-based think tank. “If Russia offers a compromise, Berlin and Paris will heave a sigh of relief. By publicly kicking (German Chancellor Angela) Merkel and (French President Emmanuel) Macron, Zelenskiy untied ir hands and re is more talk about ir ‘friendly support.’”

In June, France helped Russia’s delegation restore its credentials at Parliamentary Assembly of Council of Europe, five years after it was stripped of voting rights following annexation of Crimea. Macron has also spoken about prospect of Russia’s eventual return to Group of Seven, from which it was purged after annexing Crimea.

“Russia is main beneficiary of that situation,” Karasev said. “Putin longer has to prove that Ukraine is dangerous and toxic — Ukrainian and U.S. politicians have done job for him. Kremlin w just needs to wait until Ukrainian apple falls into its lap, as U.S., Germany and France all have got ir share of toxic Ukrainian gifts and got poisoned.”