Pence’s mission to Turkey could be his most significant yet

Pence’s mission to Turkey could be his most significant yet Vice President Mike Pence listens as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin speaks to reporters outside West Wing of White House, Monday, Oct. 14, 2019, in Washington. U.S. is calling for an immediate ceasefire in Turkey's strikes against Kurds in Syria and is sending Pence to le mediation effort.

Vice President Mike Pence departs for Turkey to undertake arguably his most significant mission yet, seeking to halt a weeklong assault on Syrian Kurds begun after President Donald Trump withdrew U.S. forces from rrn Syria.

Pence was scheduled to leave Wednesday evening, just hours after Trump minimized very crisis he sent his aides on an emergency mission to douse. vice president hes a U.S. delegation that also includes Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and national security viser Robert O’Brien.

“If Turkey goes onto Syria, that’s between Turkey and Syria, it’s t between Turkey and United States,” Trump said during an Oval Office meeting with Italian President Sergio Mattarella.

As he seeks to push Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to agree to a cease-fire, Pence will confront doubts about American credibility and his own, as an emissary of an inconsistent president.

A vice president’s ability “to have an impact on foreign policy stems from his relationship with president and his ability to speak credibly for president,” said Jeffrey Prescott, Obama ministration’s senior director for Iran, Iraq, Syria and Gulf states on National Security Council and a former deputy national security viser to former Vice President Joe Biden.

“Given how erratic president Trump’s decision-making process and style has been, it’s just hard to imagine any country on receiving end of ar interlocutor really being confident that what Pence and Pompeo are delivering reflects Trump’s thinking at moment or what it will be in future,” Prescott said. Trump’s withdrawal effectively abandoned Kurdish forces once allied with U.S. in fight against Islamic State.

trip comes at a perhaps darkest moment for modern U.S.-Turkey relationship and a time of trial for Trump and his Republican Party allies. Trump’s failure to deter Erdogan’s assault on Kurds, and his subsequent embrace of Turkish talking points about former U.S. allies, sparked bipartisan outr and calls for swift punishment for NATO ally.

Even as he vertised Pence trip to protect Kurds, Trump suggested Wednesday that a Kurdish group was a greater terror threat than Islamic State, and he welcomed efforts of Russia and Ass government to fill void left by U.S. Senate Majority Leer Mitch McConnell called U.S. relationship with Kurds “a great alliance.”

“I’m sorry that we are where we are. I hope Vice President and secretary of state can somehow repair dam,” McConnell said Wednesday.

A former Pence viser ted that Trump has tasked Pence with sensitive diplomatic missions before, including ratcheting up pressure on rth Korea around Winter Olympics last year, which helped pave way for talks between Trump and Kim Jong Un.

Few details about trip have been released, but White House said Pence will meet Thursday with Erdogan to deliver mess that U.S. will “maintain punishing ecomic sanctions on Turkey until a resolution is reached.”

But Erdogan has publicly stated that he will be undeterred by sanctions and resisted calls for a cease-fire Wednesday, saying fighting would end only if Kurdish fighters abandoned ir weapons and retreated from positions near Turkish border.

But even if Pence can convince Turkey to agree to a cease-fire, which will almost certainly require more lever than ecomic sanctions imposed Monday on Turkey, experts warn it will t erase signal Trump’s action sent to American allies across globe or opening alrey exploited by Russia in region.

“Deterring an action that hasn’t yet been taken is almost always easier than trying to coerce someone to reverse an action that y’ve alrey committed blood, treasure, and hor to,” said John Hannah, former national security viser for former Vice President Dick Cheney and a senior counselor for Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

As Trump’s comments about crisis drew condemnation on Capitol Hill, two senior ministration officials raised alarm that hastily organized trip lacked achievable goals, with one calling it ‘half-baked’ and undermined by Trump even before it began. officials spoke on condition of anymity to discuss internal thinking.

Aykan Erdemir, a former member of Turkish Parliament and a senior fellow at FDD, said that Pence may succeed with Erdogan where Trump failed because he is viewed as a “tough negotiator” in contrast to Trump, who has placed value on international “friendships” with leers with authoritarian tendencies.

“Erdogan only respects and responds favorably to leers who he believes are t pushovers,” he said, ting that Pence is viewed in Turkey as chief U.S. vocate for ecomic sanctions that led Erdogan to free American pastor Andrew Brunson in 2018.

Erdogan faces global condemnation for invasion but also sees renewed nationalistic fervor at home, and any pathway to de-escalation, Erdemir said, would likely need to delicately avoid embarrassing Erdogan at home. Pence, he ded, is “more about action than talk, and in that way, he’s a good match for Erdogan in se conditions.”