Road to 270: Biden has options, Trump walks narrow path

President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden each has a path to 270 Electoral College votes needed to win White House. Biden's is appreciably wider. former vice president is competitive in all battleground states Trump carried in 2016 and has put a handful of traditional Republican states, including Georgia and Arizona, in play. That has Trump scrambling to defend a wide swath of territory and putting incumbent's hopes for reelection on two of most populous swing states, Florida and Pennsylvania.

A look at most likely roads to victory:

BIDEN TRUE RTH

Biden can win an electoral majority most simply by carrying three states where Trump stunned Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.Those states were carried by Democrats for decades before 2016. y would give Biden 279 electoral votes, as long as he wins all or states in Clinton's column. Under this scenario, Biden would t need to win any or states Trump won in 2016. three rrn industrial states have been Biden’s sharpest target for advertising dollars. He spent almost $150 million — 30% of his total national ad spending since June — in three, according to Kantar/CMAG's review for Associated Press.

fiercest struggle among three is in Pennsylvania. Biden has had a slight advant in most polls, while some suggest Trump remains within striking distance. Biden, who was born in Scranton, claims some favorite-son status in state. Trump's hopes have been boosted by Biden's recent call for phasing out fossil fuels, though Biden has said he would t ban fracking.

SOUTH BY SOUTHWEST

If Biden loses Pennsylvania, it would require him to find 11 electoral votes elsewhere.Once reliably Republican Arizona, offering exactly 11, and rth Carolina, with 15, are states Trump won four years ago that are well within Biden's reach.Democrats are particularly bullish about Arizona, last carried by a Democrat in 1996. Trump won state in 2016 by 3.5 percent points, smallest margin in 20 years, and this year, Democrats' Senate candidate, former astronaut Mark Kelly, is running a strong race. Arizona alternative supposes, as most of Biden's paths do, that he also wins Nevada, last carried by a Republican in 2004. Trump has campaigned in state, though Democrats say y are comfortable with ir prospects re.

race for rth Carolina appears tighter, but re is recent precedent for a Democrat carrying state. In 2008, Barack Obama was first Democrat to take it in 32 years. Although he narrowly lost re in 2012, as did Clinton in 2016, waves of college-educated newcomers are swelling its booming suburbs, a boost to Biden's chances.

REST IS EXTRA

re's ar scenario for Biden: a more comfortable Electoral College victory.Should Biden win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and eir Arizona and rth Carolina, he would capture at least 290 electoral votes.He's also competing for Ohio, which Trump won by 8 percent points in 2016; Iowa, which Trump won by nearly 10 percent points; and Georgia, which Trump carried by 5 percent points. Victories in those states would boost Biden's electoral total above 300.

Biden made two stops in Georgia this past this week and on Friday had his first fall campaign visit to Iowa. He's spent almost $5 million but hasn't visited Iowa since state's caucuses in February. Biden has campaigned lightly in Ohio but has spent almost $7 million in advertising. Surveys and operatives in both parties said two states were very close heading into campaign's final weekend.

Oh, and remember Florida? perennial battleground offers 29 electoral votes and is, per usual, exceedingly close.re's one more big prize on table: Texas. Democrats have been eyeing state for years, but this is first year in decades where it may really be within reach for party.

state's new battleground status highlights t just Trump's struggles in suburbs, which are booming outside Texas' major cities, but also his weaknesses in nearly every state with a diverse electorate.“Biden has more of an opportunity to win by a larger electoral number than Trump does,” said Republican pollster Glen Bolger, who is surveying in several battleground states but t for Trump’s campaign. “It doesn’t mean Trump can’t win.”

TRUMP FLORIDA OR BUST

Trump almost certainly cant reach 270 electoral votes without carrying Florida, where polls show a tight race. Some have suggested a slight Biden advant.Trump's rally Thursday in Florida was his third campaign trip to state this month, underscoring why Florida is so important to his reelection. He plans to return before Tuesday's election.

His stop Thursday was in swing-voting Hillsborough County, where Clinton beat him by about 41,000 votes. Hillsborough is next to — and shares a media market with — Pinellas County, most populous county in state to flip from Democratic in 2012 to Republican in 2016.

Trump won some counties in surrounding area by more than 60% of vote, and his campaign hopes it can furr run up score with first-time and less regular voters in se places.Trump planned to accompany first lady Melania Trump when she votes Tuesday near Palm Beach County. Trumps moved ir residence from reliably Democratic New York to Florida last year.

PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE

Even if Trump nets Florida and holds battlegrounds he won in South and Southwest, he would still be short of 270 electoral votes. president is wring much on Pennsylvania as best chance of moving within striking distance of that threshold. After a trio of rallies this past week, Trump was set to hold four more in state on Saturday.He's been making stops across Pennsylvania, from counties outside Philadelphia, largest metro area, to rural rthwest corner of state.

Among his upcoming stops: Bucks County. It was once Philadelphia's most GOP-heavy suburb but has been trending Democratic and is an example of obstacles Trump is facing. He lost county by less than 2 percent points in 2016 and has seen his standing in suburbs steadily erode since n.Trump's argument to Pennsylvania voters was recharged after Biden, during ir Oct. 22 debate, called for phasing out fossil fuels. That created an opportunity for Trump in a state with a robust natural gas industry.

“Biden’s plan to abolish entire U.S. oil industry — you saw that?” Trump ted at a rally last week in Lansing, Michigan, recalling Biden's call for phasing renewable fuels in and fossil fuels out over time. “Will cripple our nation and send us into an absolute deep depression.”

(Im Credit: AP) 

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