Russia could invade Ukraine within a month, US intel says after dramatic cyber attack

Ukraine on Friday, January 14 witnessed a dramatic nationwide cyberattack that sabotaged the government servers and key state websites, including the homepage for the Foreign Ministry with a message "be afraid and expect the worst,” which Kyiv blamed on the Russian government. Ukrainian officials braced themselves for a military offensive second-guessing Moscow’s immediate next move as they deemed this high-level cyberattack a certain signal for war.

While the US President Joe Biden was briefed on the Ukrainian governmental disruptions, the United States-based Intelligence agencies monitoring Russian cyber operations speculated that Moscow is prepared to invade Ukraine in just next 30 days, reiterating the intel’s early timelines that predicted full scale multi-front military offensive by end of January 2022 or February.

 “The gap in perceptions is so broad that a new and dangerous escalation could be necessary to make the parties open up their imagination and search for agreements,” Fyodor Lukyanov, the head of the Moscow-based Council for Foreign and Defense Policies, observed in a commentary to AP. 

Russian tanks T-72B3 take part in drills at the Kadamovskiy firing range in the Rostov region in southern Russia. [Credit: AP]

Biden administration had earlier clarified that if Russia launches an incursion of Kyiv, there will be unprecedented, crippling economic sanctions but Washington sending its own troops to Kyiv to fight the Russians “is not on the cards.” A senior US official, though, on condition of anonymity told NBC that the Biden administration may be considering arming Ukrainian insurgents in essence to fight a guerrilla war against Russian forces, should Putin invades Kyiv. With more than 100,000 armed troops deployed on the contentious Kyiv border, Putin has left the West and the alliance guessing about Moscow's next move.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attends his annual news conference in Moscow, Russia. [Credit: AP]

Is US training Ukrainian soldiers?

The diplomatic Strategic Stability Dialogue, involving the NATO-Russia Council, and the OSCE that were held this week on the security guarantees demanded by Moscow in its draft treaties, have yielded no outcome. United States national security advisor Jake Sullivan told a White House briefing that Biden administration is adhering to the core premise of “reciprocity.”

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, right, welcomes Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko, center, and Russia's Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin prior to the NATO-Russia Council at NATO headquarters, in Brussels. [Credit: AP]

As the prospects of the full-scale Russian invasion are looming large, explosive reports emerged that the CIA has been overseeing a secret intensive training program in an undisclosed location in the South for elite Ukrainian special operations forces and other intelligence personnel to tackle the Russian insurgency.

At least five former intelligence and national security officials familiar with the initiative, spoke on condition of anonymity with American news agencies, stressing that the initiative that started in 2015, may play a key role for Kyiv in defending the eastern border, where Russian troops have massed.

The covert US-Kyiv operation is run by paramilitaries working for the CIA’s Ground Branch officially known as Ground Department and was established during the Obama administration to train Ukrainian soldiers during Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014. The CIA operation involves “very specific training on skills that would enhance” the Ukrainians’ “ability to push back against the Russians,” a former senior intelligence official reportedly said. In a more upfront statement, a former CIA official said, “The United States is training an insurgency,” adding that the program has taught the Ukrainians how “to kill Russians.”