Trump and Harris Battle for Pennsylvania: The New Key to the White House

In the 2000 presidential election, Florida was the focus. For the 2024 election, the focus is on Pennsylvania. 

Both the Trump and Harris campaigns are treating Pennsylvania as the key battleground state, similar to how Ohio and Florida were seen in previous elections. The state is seen as a critical determinant of who will win the White House.

According to an Axios analysis of AdImpact data, the Trump and Harris campaigns are set to spend more than double on advertising in Pennsylvania than in any of the other six swing states. This intense focus could influence Vice President Kamala Harris to choose Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate, with an announcement expected in the coming days.

Here is what you need to know

The Harris and Trump campaigns are projected to spend a combined total of $210.9 million on TV, digital, and radio ads in Pennsylvania in the eight months leading up to Election Day. Harris's team, including outside Super PACs, is outspending Trump in every swing state except Pennsylvania, where the spending is nearly even — $109.2 million from Harris’s side compared to $101.7 million from Trump's team. 

Additionally, the Democrats spent an extra $9 million in Pennsylvania during the Republican primary. It appears both campaigns believe that whoever wins Pennsylvania, is more likely to win the race to the White House. 

Michigan follows Pennsylvania in terms of total expected ad spending, with $98.6 million projected. Harris's team plans to spend $80.9 million in Michigan, while Trump's team will allocate $17.7 million there. After Pennsylvania, Trump's next largest investment is in Georgia, with $28.6 million earmarked for advertising.

What is the bottom line?

The bottom line is that both campaigns might adjust their strategies in the coming months, especially with Harris now leading the Democratic ticket instead of President Biden. The Trump team sees Pennsylvania as a crucial opportunity to penetrate the "Blue Wall" states in the Midwest, including Michigan and Wisconsin, which Biden relied on for victory. Recently, Trump's campaign also started significant ad spending in North Carolina and Nevada, where polls had previously indicated comfortable leads.

As the campaigns intensify their focus on Pennsylvania, the state is poised to play a pivotal role in deciding the next President of the United States.