Trump can begin steps to pull US out of Paris climate deal

For more than two years President Donald Trump has talked about pulling United States out of landmark Paris climate agreement . Starting Monday he finally can do something about it.

Even n, though, withdrawal process takes a year and wouldn’t become official until at least day after 2020 presidential election.

In Paris agreement, nearly 200 countries set ir own national targets for reducing or controlling pollution of heat-trapping gases. It was negotiated in 2015 with lots of prodding by United States and China and went into effect v. 4, 2016.

terms of deal say country can withdraw in first three years. So Monday is first time U.S. could actually start withdrawal process, which begins with a letter to United Nations. And it doesn’t become official for a year after that, which les to day after election.

If someone or than Trump wins in 2020, next president could get back in deal in just 30 days and plan to cut carbon pollution, said Andrew Light, a former Obama State Department climate negotiator w at nprofit World Resources Institute.

Light and or experts say withdrawal by United States, second biggest climate polluter and world’s largest ecomy, will hurt efforts to fight global warming.

“Global objectives can’t be met unless everybody does ir part and U.S. has to play game,” said Appalachian State University environmental sciences professor Gregg Marland, who is part of a global effort to track carbon dioxide emissions. “We’re second biggest player. What happens to game if we take our ball and go home?”

Someone else, probably biggest polluter China, will take over leership in global fight, said MIT ecomist Jake Jacoby, who co-founded MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy of Global Change.

penalty for U.S. “is t in ecomic loss. penalty is in shame, in discrediting U.S. leership,” Jacoby said.

Asked what U.S. plans next, State Department spokesman James Dewey on Friday emailed only this: “ U.S. position with respect to Paris Agreement has t changed. United States intends to withdraw from Paris Agreement.”

agreement set goals of preventing ar 0.9 degrees (0.5 degrees Celsius) to 1.8 degrees (1 degree Celsius) of warming from current levels. Even pledges me in 2015 weren’t eugh to prevent those levels of warming.

deal calls for nations to come up with more ambitious pollution cuts every five years, starting in vember 2020 in at a meeting in Scotland. Because of expected withdrawal, U.S. role in 2020 negotiations will be reduced, Light said.

Climate change, caused by burning of coal, oil and gas, has alrey warmed world by 1.8 degrees (1 degree Celsius) since late 1800s, caused massive melting of ice globally, triggered wear extremes and changed ocean chemistry. And scientists say, depending on how much carbon dioxide is emitted, it will only get worse by end of century with temperatures jumping by several degrees and oceans rising by close to three feet (1 meter).

Trump has been promising to pull out of Paris deal since 2017, often mischaracterizing terms of agreement, which are voluntary. In October, he called it a massive wealth transfer from America to or nations and said it was one-sided

That’s t case, experts said.

For example, U.S. goal — set by Barack Obama’s ministration — h been to reduce carbon dioxide emission in 2025 by 26% to 28% compared to 2005 levels. This translates to about 15% compared to 1990 levels.

European Union’s goal was to cut carbon pollution in 2030 by 40% compared to 1990 levels, which is greater than America’s pledge, said Stanford University’s Rob Jackson, who chairs Global Carbon Project, a group of scientists that track carbon emissions worldwide. United Kingdom has alrey exceeded that goal, he said.

“ U.S. agreement is t a tax on American people. re is massive wealth transfer,” said Climate visers CEO Nigel Purvis, who was a le State Department climate negotiator in Clinton and George W. Bush ministrations. “In fact, agreement obligates country to make any financial payments.”

Formally getting out of Paris agreement is b, but at this point after years of rhetoric is more symbolic than anything, said Georgia Tech climate scientist Kim Cobb. She said she is more worried about or Trump carbon pollution actions, such as fighting California’s tougher emissions and mile standards and rollbacks of coal fired power plant regulations.

U.S. was t on track to reach its Paris pledge, according to federal Energy Information ministration’s latest projections.

EIA projects that in 2025 emissions will be at 4959 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, 17% below 2005 levels, about 500 million tons short of goal. Emissions in 2018 were nearly 2% higher than in 2016, ncy’s latest energy outlook says. That spike likely was from extreme wear and ecomic growth, Marland and Jacoby said.

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