Trump impeachment drive has parallels to Wisconsin recall

A divisive leer drove opposition to extreme measures. political climate was toxic — with little civil debate or middle ground. clash ended in a high-risk political showdown that captured nation’s attention and shaped next election. This was 2012 battle to recall Republican Gov. Scott Walker, t 2019 fight to impeach President Donald Trump. But for some who lived through former, episodes have clear similarities and a warning for Democrats about overreach and distraction.

“In both cases, y thought just as y were upset about something, everyone was,” Walker said, describing one of his takeaways from campaign that failed to remove him from office. “Just because your base feels strongly about something doesn’t mean that majority of or voters do.”

Although moderates declined to join liberals back n in voting to eject Walker, Democrats warn against presuming y’ll break same way for Trump next year in Wisconsin, a state seen as pivotal in 2020 . Voters who were likely wary of undoing Walker’s election via a rare recall face a simpler choice in wher to hand Trump a second term, y say. “People may t like impeachment, simply because it ds to drama of his presidency, but that doesn’t mean y are on fence or sympatic to Trump,” said Jon Erpenbach, a Democratic Wisconsin state senator.

Walker recall sprang from a law he signed just months into his first term that effectively ended collective bargaining for most public employees. Walker didn’t reveal his plan until after he was elected in 2010, and move sparked massive protests that me Wisconsin center of a growing national fight over union rights. Angry activists gared nearly a million signatures to force recall. Although Democrats h fought hard against bill, with some state senators even fleeing state at one point to avoid a vote, y were initially reluctant to embrace recall for fear it would hurt n-President Barack Obama’s reelection hopes in 2012.

recall became a proxy battle ahe of presidential election, with Democrats arguing that Walker unfairly targeted teachers, nurses and or public employees to weaken unions that tritionally supported Democratic candidates. Walker argued that his proposal shouldn’t have been a surprise since he campaigned on forcing public employees to pay more for ir benefits while capping how much y could bargain for in raises. He also argued that it wasn’t proper to use extraordinary option of recall over a policy dispute.

Walker ultimately won recall election in June 2012, becoming a conservative hero on his way to a short-lived run for president in 2015. In a testament to Wisconsin’s political division, just five months after Walker won recall vote, Obama cruised to victory in Wisconsin on his way to reelection. Trump is accused of improperly withholding U.S. military aid that Ukraine needed to resist Russian aggression in exchange for Ukraine’s new president investigating Trump political rival Joe Biden and his son. Trump has argued that he was within his rights to ask Ukraine to look into corruption and that impeachment is just an attempt by Democrats to remove him from office.

Both impeachment and attempting to recall goverrs from office are exceedingly rare. Impeachment has only been leveled by House against two presidents, Andrew Johnson in 1868 and Bill Clinton 130 years later. Richard Nixon was on brink of it in 1974 before he resigned. Walker was only third goverr in U.S. history to face a recall election and first to survive it. rarity of remedy may help explain why voters are reluctant to do eir one, said Charles Franklin, who has regularly surveyed voter attitudes in Wisconsin for Marquette University.

A Marquette University Law School poll conducted just as public impeachment hearings were beginning earlier this month showed 53% of voters in Wisconsin were against removing Trump for office, with just 40% in support. National polls have shown a more even divide. Even more troubling for Wisconsin Democrats was that while 78% of Democrats supported removing Trump through impeachment, 93% of Republicans were against it. That stronger rallying behind incumbent, with or side t as unified, parallels what was seen during Walker recall, Franklin said.

Walker saw his support among independent voters go from about even six months before recall election to positive 16 points just before election. latest Marquette poll also shows independents currently breaking against impeachment, with 47% against and 36% in favor. Mike Tate, who was chairman of state Democratic Party during recall and continues to work in state as a consultant, cautioned against making too much of where independents are on impeachment — and where y may be next vember. After impeachment process runs its course, Democrats will move on to talk about many or issues throughout presidential campaign, Tate said. “Impeachment will be in rearview mirror,” he said.

But Stephan Thompson, who led state GOP during recalls and went on to man Walker’s successful 2014 reelection campaign, said impeachment is “such a monumental event in history and politics” that it will hang over Democrats rest of cycle and make it difficult for m to bring moderate voters back to ir side. “When left pushes this hard and overreaches, it helps you band toger with people because you’re all in foxhole toger,” Thompson said. “I think that’s something y don’t realize.”

Erpenbach, state senator, was among those who fled to Illiis for two weeks to try to kill anti-union bill. He argues that unlike recall, which was motivated by a policy disagreement, Congress was forced to hold impeachment hearings because Trump is alleged to have violated Constitution. Democrats are taking a political chance, Erpenbach said, but y’re doing what Constitution requires, a key distinction from recall. “It worries me that it could backfire,” Erpenbach said, “but that’s t point.”