Trump or Harris: Who'll Win? Hear it from Historian Who Predicted Almost Every Election Since '84

In the 2024 presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, historian Allan Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” formula currently favors Harris. 

Lichtman, renowned for his accurate predictions of almost all presidential elections since 1984, uses a unique set of 13 true-or-false questions to forecast election outcomes.

How does Lichtman predict who'll win?

Lichtman's formula evaluates various factors to predict the likely winner. Each factor, or "key," is assigned based on whether conditions favor one candidate or the other. If a candidate receives six or more keys, they are projected to win.

Currently, the Democrats, with Harris as the likely nominee, hold six out of the 13 keys. These include the primary contest, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandal, and no challenger charisma.

The Republicans hold three keys: winning the House majority in the 2022 midterms, the current incumbent not seeking re-election, and the current incumbent lacking charisma.

Four keys remain undecided: the influence of a third-party candidate, social unrest, foreign military failure, and foreign military success. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could impact the third-party factor.

“A lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose,” says Lichtman 

Lichtman noted that if Democrats lose three more keys, they would be projected as the losers. Despite this, he told News Nation that "a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose."

Lichtman, who accurately predicted Trump’s win in 2016 and Biden’s win in 2020, will make his final prediction after the Democratic National Convention in August, once the party officially selects its nominee.