What is Pentagon documents leak that has rattled Biden admin; what is in the docs?

The Biden administration is rushing to evaluate and manage the repercussions of a significant disclosure of confidential Pentagon records that has unsettled American officials, lawmakers and crucial allies in recent times. 

The Justice Department is examining how a vast collection of extremely delicate documents, encompassing information on the US' surveillance activities on allies and adversaries, along with intelligence on the Ukrainian conflict, was leaked on social media platforms. 

Nonetheless, there is currently scant information about the identity of those accountable for the breach or how some of the country's most secure secrets were made available on social media sites.

What is in the leaked Pentagon documents?

The documents, believed to have been generated from mid-February to early March, comprise an extensive array of top-secret data, presenting a rare glimpse into the US' surveillance methods for both friendly nations and foes to the United States.

Several of these documents, which American officials affirm to be genuine, uncover the magnitude of US monitoring on significant allies such as South Korea, Israel, and Ukraine. Meanwhile, others unveil the extent to which the US has infiltrated the Russian Ministry of Defense and Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary organisation, mainly through intercepted communications and human informants, who could potentially be jeopardised or disconnected from the US.

Additionally, some documents expose significant vulnerabilities in Ukrainian arms, air defence, battalion capacity, and preparedness during a crucial phase of the war, as Ukrainian troops prepare to initiate a counterattack against the Russian Army. This comes at a time when the US and Ukraine are improving their intelligence-sharing relationship, and the revelations could jeopardise the newfound mutual trust.

One of the documents uncovered in the leak discloses that the US has been conducting surveillance on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. While this revelation does not come as a surprise to a source close to Zelensky, Ukrainian officials are distressed by the leak. 

The US intelligence report indicates that in late February, Zelensky proposed the use of unmanned aerial vehicles to strike Russian deployment sites in Rostov Oblast, Russia, since Ukraine lacks long-range weapons that can reach that distance. 

Signals intelligence pertains to information derived from electronic signals and systems used by foreign targets, such as communications systems, radars, and weaponry.

One of the documents suggested that Egypt planned to secretly produce and ship nearly 40,000 rockets to Russia. 

Another document provides a detailed conversation between two senior South Korean national security officials regarding concerns raised by the National Security Council over a request from the US for ammunition. 

The officials were apprehensive that providing the ammunition, which would then be sent to Ukraine, would be in violation of South Korea's policy of not providing lethal aid to countries involved in wars. As per the document, one of the officials suggested a way to circumvent this policy without changing it, which is to sell the ammunition to Poland instead. 

The document has caused controversy in Seoul, with South Korean officials intending to address the matter with Washington.

Moreover, an intelligence report about Israel has caused outrage in Jerusalem. The CIA-produced report, based on signals intelligence, alleges that Israel's primary intelligence agency, the Mossad, has been advocating for protests against the country's new government, including several explicit calls to action.

One of the documents suggested that Egypt planned to secretly produce and ship nearly 40,000 rockets to Russia.

What has the global reaction been?

Following the leak, US allies are conducting damage assessments and striving to determine if any of their own sources and methods have been compromised.

“We expect the US to share a damage assessment with us in the coming days, but we cannot wait for their assessment. Right now we are doing our own,” an official from a country that is part of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing arrangement with the US, which includes Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom told CNN.

“We are pouring over these documents to figure out if any of the intelligence originated from our collection,” the official said. A second Five Eyes nation official expressed concern about the leaked Ukraine war information handicapping the country on the battlefield.

The official also pointed out that it was alarming to see one of the documents from February titled “Russia-Ukraine: Battle for the Donbas Region Likely Heading for a Stalemate Throughout 2023”. The document notes the challenges with assessing the “endurance of Ukraine’s operations”.

“Gains for Ukraine will be hard to accomplish, but it does not help to have the private US assessment pointing to a likely yearlong stalemate revealed publicly,” the official said.

On Friday, Mykhailo Podolyak, the adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, expressed on his Telegram channel that he believes the documents that have been disseminated are not genuine, have "no correlation to Ukraine's real plans" and are grounded in "a substantial amount of fabricated information" spread by Russia. Nevertheless, a source in close proximity to Zelenskyy has confirmed that Ukraine has already revised some of its military strategies as a result of the leak.

US government officials “are engaging with allies and partners at high levels over this including to reassure them of our commitment to safeguarding intelligence and the fidelity of securing our partnerships” following the leak, State Department principal deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel said on Monday.

According to a US official familiar with the issue, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman has been selected to head the diplomatic response at the State Department. However, Patel declined to reveal which nations the US has been in contact with, indicating that "that work is ongoing".

As of Monday, two Five Eyes diplomats have revealed that key allies belonging to the intelligence-sharing arrangement, including Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, have not been informed by the US about their position on the damage assessment or attempts to pinpoint the source of the leak. According to one of the diplomats, they anticipate a briefing from US officials in the upcoming days, noting that discussions had been hindered in recent days due to the Easter holiday.