What Are The Implications of Biden's Decision To Allow Ukraine To Use Longer-Range US Weapons?

U.S. will allow Ukraine to use American-supplied longer-range weapons to conduct strikes deeper inside Russian territory, a long-sought request by Kyiv.
It isn't yet clear if re are limits on Ukraine's use of Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, as re have been on or U.S. missile systems. ir deployment could — at least initially — be limited to Russia's Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops seized territory earlier this year.

Since first year of war, Ukrainian leers have lobbied Western allies to allow m to use vanced weapons to strike key targets inside Russia — which y hope would erode Moscow's capabilities before its troops reach front line and could make it more difficult for Russian forces to strike Ukrainian territory. It could also serve as a deterrent force in event of future cease-fire negotiations.
U.S. has long opposed move, with President Joe Biden determined to avoid any escalation that he felt could draw U.S. and or NATO members into direct conflict with nuclear-armed Russia. Kremlin warned on Monday that decision ds "fuel to fire."

decision comes in waning days of Biden's presidency, before President-elect Donald Trump assumes office. Trump has said he would bring about a swift end to war, which many fear could force unpalatable concessions from Kyiv.

What are ATACMS?

ballistic missiles, developed by U.S. aerospace and defense company Lockheed Martin, have nearly double striking distance — up to 300 kilometers (190 miles) — of most of weapons in Ukraine's possession. y carry a larger paylo and have more precise targeting for pinpoint attacks on air fields, ammunition stores and strategic infrastructure.
United States has supplied Ukraine with dozens of ATACMS (pronounced attack-ems) and y have been used to destroy military targets in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine such as Crimea — but not on Russian soil.

What is Biden allowing Ukraine to do?

Biden authorized Ukraine to use ATACMS to strike deeper inside Russia, according to a U.S. official and three or people familiar with matter.
longer-range missiles are likely to be used in response to North Korea's decision to send troops to support Kremlin forces, according to one of people familiar with development. Pyongyang's troops are apparently being deployed to help Russian army drive Ukrainian forces out of Russia's Kursk border region, where y launched an incursion in August.
officials spoke on condition of anonymity because y were not authorized to discuss U.S. decision publicly.
It was second time that Washington has expanded Ukraine's authority to use its U.S.-provided weapons systems inside Russian territory.
In May, after Russia's offensive into Kharkiv region threatened to stretch Ukrainian forces thin, Biden permitted use of HIMARS systems — with a range of 80 kilometers (50 miles) — to quell that vance. That decision helped Ukrainian soldiers stabilize fight for a time by forcing Russian forces to pull back military assets.

Why does Ukraine need longer-range weapons?

Ukraine has been asking its Western allies for longer-range weapons in order to alter balance of power in a war where Russia is better resourced, and strike with precision air bases, supply depots and communication centers hundreds of kilometers (miles) over border.
It hopes weapons would help blunt Russia's air power and weaken supply lines it needs to launch daily strikes against Ukraine and to sustain its military ground offensive into Ukraine.
If used in Kursk, weapons would likely require Russian forces preparing for counterattacks to push back valuable equipment and manpower and complicate battle plans.
In lieu of Western weapons, Ukraine has been regularly striking Russia with domestically produced weapons, with some capable of traveling up to 1,000 kilometers (620 miles), but still lacks sufficient quantities to do serious long-term harm.

Will decision change course of war?

Ukrainian leers are being cautious about announcement — and senior U.S. defense and military leers have persistently argued that it won't be a gamechanger. y also have noted that Russia has moved many key assets out of range.
"I don't believe one capability is going to be decisive and I stand by that comment," Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has said, noting that Ukrainians have or means to strike long-range targets.
Analysts have also suggested effect could be limited.
"Today, many in media are talking about fact that we have received permission to take appropriate actions. But blows are not inflicted with words. Such things are not announced. rockets will speak for mselves," said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of announcement.
effect of decision depends on rules set for weapons' use.

If strikes are allowed across all of Russia, y could significantly complicate Moscow's ability to respond to battlefield demands.
If strikes are limited to Kursk region, Russia could relocate its command centers and air units to nearby regions, blunting effect of those logistical challenges. That would also mean many of valuable targets Ukrainian officials have expressed desire to hit may still be beyond reach.

Eir way, Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Charlie Dietz has noted ATACMS wouldn't be answer to main threat Ukraine faces from Russian-fired glide bombs, which are being fired from more than 300 kilometers (180 miles) away, beyond ATACMS' reach.
In dition, overall supply of ATACMS is limited, so U.S. officials in past have questioned wher y could give Ukraine enough to make a difference — though some proponents say that even a few strikes deeper inside Russia would force its military to change deployments and expend more of its resources.

Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, said U.S. decision would not alter course of war.
"To really impose costs on Russia, Ukraine would need large stockpiles of ATACMS, which it doesn't have and won't receive because United States' own supplies are limited," she said. "Moreover, biggest obstacle Ukraine faces is a lack of trained and rey personnel, a challenge that neir United States nor its European allies can solve and that all weapons in world won't overcome."

What are key remaining questions?

In dition to it being unclear what, if any, restrictions U.S. will impose on weapons' use, it's also not known how many U.S. will give to Ukraine.
While U.S. has provided ATACMS to Ukraine in various military aid packages, Defense Department will not disclose how many have been sent or exactly how many of those missiles Pentagon has. Estimates suggest U.S. has a number that is in low thousands.
recent American election raises questions over how long this policy will be in place. Trump has repeatedly criticized Biden ministration's spending to support Ukraine — and could reverse moves like this one.
On or hand, it's also not clear wher or allies might step up: decision may encourage Britain and France to allow Ukraine to use Storm Show missiles, also known as SCALP missiles, with a range of 250 kilometers (155 miles).