Will South Africa comply with ICC mandate and arrest Putin at the BRICS summit in August?

A spokesperson for South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, on Wednesday, stated that the International Criminal Court's (ICC) warrant for the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin has thrown a “spanner in the works” of the upcoming BRICS summit scheduled to take place in South Africa in August. The spokesperson used the phrase "thrown a spanner in the works" to describe the situation.

Because South Africa has signed the 2002 Rome Statute, the country is obligated to comply with the ICC's warrant for the arrest of Vladimir Putin. However, South Africa is also the host of this year's BRICS summit, where leaders from Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa are scheduled to convene.

"All heads of state would be expected to attend the summit. But now we have a spanner in the works in the form of this ICC warrant,” Ramaphosa’s spokesperson, Vincent Magwenya, told reporters. “What that dictates is that there be further engagements in terms of how that is going to be managed, and those engagements are underway,” Magwenya continued. “Once they've been concluded, the necessary announcements will be made,” he added.

Since the issuance of the warrant, Ramaphosa's government has been cognizant of the predicament it presents. Last month, spokesperson Tyrone Seale declined to comment on whether Pretoria would enforce the warrant. On Tuesday, Ramaphosa declared that he would send a representative to Washington to clarify his administration's impartial position on the Ukraine conflict, reported RT.

South Africa and Russia have maintained a strong relationship since the Soviet Union supported the anti-apartheid African National Congress, which is now led by Ramaphosa. During his tenure, South Africa has abstained from denouncing Russia's military intervention in Ukraine or imposing sanctions on Moscow. Additionally, earlier this year, South Africa's military participated in joint exercises with Russian and Chinese armed forces.

Pretoria has its own concerns with the ICC and was reprimanded by the court in 2017 for not apprehending former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir when he visited the country in 2015 for an African leaders' summit. Subsequent to this occurrence, South African officials attempted to pull out from the court. However, the decision was overturned after a High Court ruling established that such a measure was in violation of the country's constitution.

The ICC issued the warrant citing accusations against Putin and Russian Children's Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova of the "unlawful deportation" of children from "occupied areas of Ukraine." The charges relate to Russia's attempt to evacuate civilians from areas, mainly in the Donbass region where Russian is predominantly spoken, that were under attack from the Ukrainian military.

Russia, like the US, China, and India, does not recognise the authority of the ICC and has disregarded the warrant as “null and void from the legal standpoint".

How will this impact the 15th BRICS summit in Durban?

Whether Russian President Vladimir Putin shows up in Durban, South Africa for the event is still a matter of speculation, but an educated guess would be that the leader will attend the forum visually from Moscow to avoid any international outcry. It cannot be understated that the absence of Putin, especially with his Chinese and Indian counterparts present at the summit, will be a rare sight. 

With Russia's war in Ukraine raging, India and China are the two countries that have been put in the spotlight by the US-led western bloc to use their influence on Moscow and come to a peaceful resolution of the conflict. Therefore, the BRICS summit was an opportunity for the three leaders to deliberate on this conflict that has had global repercussions.

Even South Africa has been prompted by various players to help end the conflict in Ukraine. Last month, Belgium called on South Africa to use its influence with Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine. The appeal was made during a state visit by the Belgian king to Pretoria. President Cyril Ramaphosa responded to the call by saying that Pretoria continues "to use the channel we have with Russia...to talk about how the conflict can be brought to an end".

With left-leaning Lula Da Silva back in presidential shoes back in Brazil, he also is looking for an opportunity to bring Brasilia back on the global stage, with him currently on a state visit to Beijing to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping.

It is worth noting that apart from Brazil (and Russia), the other three nations in BRICS - India, China & South Africa have refused to condemn Russia's aggression again Kyiv. Brazil having officially condemned the invasion, still refuses to take sides.