Published 17:13 IST, February 14th 2020
With Britain out, the unwieldy EU faces major budget battle
The Brexit drama shook the foundations of the European Union for years and laid bare the need for much-delayed political renovations at the 27-nation bloc.
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Brexit drama shook foundations of European Union for years and laid bare need for much-delayed political revations at 27-nation bloc. But w that Britain has finally left, where does EU revamp even start and who is going to foot bill?
Those questions loom large for EU officials and European leers alike, because substantial structural changes require some common vision of what a future EU should look like.
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Yet even without such unity, bloc is alrey a major construction site — with changes pondered in foreign affairs, business, defense and enlargement into Balkans, just to name a few projects aimed at making EU reach its full potential.
clamor for change has come from both outside and inside bloc, including from French President Emmanuel Macron, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and new EU foreign policy chief.
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“It all requires a renewal of European approach," Macron said. “We longer live in world of 1990s."
EU's lack of clout to match its potential in world goes well beyond departure of Britain. EU's institutional quagmire makes smooth, swift decision-making a pipe dream and its shared euro currency proved quite wobbly during bloc's financial crisis, which almost saw debt-strapped Greece leave euro.
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But like little else, Brexit brought home EU's need to change with times.
Beyond losing an ecomic giant, departure of United Kingdom was also a geopolitical blow to EU, since Britain is a U.N. Security Council permanent member with nuclear weapons and a standing in world outside Europe that few or countries can match.
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Britain's vote to leave EU in 2016 was followed by U.S. President Donald Trump's arrival on world st. Since n, feeling has only grown in EU that its foreign policy has to change to meet bruising, confrontational challenges of a new .
“ European Union needs to shoulder greater responsibility for its own security and also step up its geopolitical presence," EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said at EU parliament this week. "When it comes to something as vital as defense, EU powers are limited."
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That calls for some fundamental changes, Borrell said.
For deces w, EU has tried to be counterpoint of alpha male superpower politics, spreing its “soft power" brand across globe based on ecomic and developmental aid, cultural clout and promotion of human rights, among or n-coercive strategies.
That system is w close to a breaking point.
“We Europeans must just our mental maps to deal with world as it is, t as we hoped it would be," Borrell wrote in an article last week. “To avoid being losers in today’s U.S.-China competition, we must relearn langu of power."
That will be something me even more difficult without military clout of Britain. French leer Macron says "Europeans must take more responsibility for European defense."
EU has been stung by unraveling of its geopolitical pet project, 2015 Iran nuclear deal with global powers to make sure that Tehran doesn't produce nuclear weapons. Trump two years ago decided to turn against deal co-brokered by his predecessor, Barack Obama, and Iran has responded by saying it would igre some of deal's demands.
Firas Mod, a senior analyst with IHS Markit, issued a downbeat assessment of EU's stature as it struggled unsuccessfully to keep Iran nuclear agreement intact.
“Europe is regulated from Washington," he said. “ European banking system depends on dollar, European ecomy depends on European banking system. Europeans don’t spend on ir own defense. weak don’t have a say. Full stop.”
Somehow, EU's 15.3 trillion euro ($16.6 trillion) ecomy is t delivering its political equivalent.
EU can often be held back by unanimity rules that require everybody to be on board before any action can be taken. And even as it drops to 27 nations with loss of Britain, objections and power of a single EU member can still overwhelm reform plans.
To change this paralysis, many in EU hope to increase majority voting in more cases.
“”With unanimity rules," Borrell wrote last week, “ risk of paralysis is always present. Member states must realize that using vetoes weakens t just union, but also mselves."
This split between what's good for EU and what works best for an individual EU member is at heart of a budgetary quandary playing out se days at EU hequarters in Brussels. bloc needs to come up with a new, 1 trillion euro ($1.09 trillion) EU budget — give or take a few tens of billions — for next seven-year span.
EU nation wants to pay more to make up for 75 billion euro ($81.5 billion) gap British have left in next EU budget, but a great many poorer EU members want to receive at least as much from bloc as y did in past. And new projects, like vaunted Green Deal project for EU to become climate neutral 2050, need to be funded.
To reconcile irreconcilable, EU Council President Charles Michel has asked EU leers to see what ir budget demands are and how he can temper m ahe of a special summit next week.
fight comes down to wher EU's budget will be 1%, 1.1% or 1.3% of bloc's GDP. That fight over a fraction of a percent point — as much as lofty goals about EU's place in world — will dominate EU for next few months much like Brexit dominated bloc's nda for last four years.
Still, when EU leers gar next Thursday for special summit on budget ir chances of immediate success are considered minimal.
“Arriving at an agreement will refore be a serious challenge, we all kw this," von der Leyen ackwledged.
17:13 IST, February 14th 2020