World needs to reduce extraction of fossil fuel to meet Paris Agreement goal: Study

A recent study by the University College London (UCL) suggested the world a few measures in an attempt to meet the Paris Climate Agreement's target. One of the key aims of the 2015 UNFCC COP agreement, which was ratified by 196 nations, was to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels. The findings, published in Nature, suggest a quick reduction in fossil fuel extraction and emissions to achieve even a 50 per cent chance of meeting the agreement's target.

The study noted that to meet the goal, global oil and gas production must fall by 3 per cent per year until 2050. Many fossil fuel extraction projects, both planned and ongoing, are incompatible with meeting internationally agreed global warming targets set out in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. To keep global warming below 1.5°C, about 60 per cent of oil and fossil methane gas, as well as nearly 90 per cent of coal, must remain in the ground by 2050, suggested the study. 

The researchers used a global energy system model to calculate how much fossil fuel would need to be kept untouched on a regional and global scale. They suggested that the world must not emit more than 580 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide before 2100 and under this scenario, 89 per cent of coal reserves, 58 per cent of oil reserves and 59 per cent of gas reserves must remain unextracted.

The researchers also emphasised that, while the global fossil-fuel industry's outlook is already "bleak," further tighter extraction limits will be required to increase the prospects of keeping warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Global oil and fossil methane gas production has already reached its peak, according to Dan Welsby, the study's lead author. "The IPCC report and our new articles show beyond a shadow of a doubt that current fuel production trends are heading in the wrong direction. To reach net-zero emissions, a dramatic reduction is required right away," he added. 

'Extraction of fossil fuel must be kept to a bare minimum'

According to the study, Middle Eastern regions must maintain around 60 per cent of their fossil fuel reserves untapped, which equates to massive volumes of fuel given the vast size of their reserve base. When it comes to areas with a high concentration of high-carbon-intensive oil deposits, the oil sands of Canada must retain about 83 per cent of their reserves underground and away from production. Regions with abundant oil deposits in Central and South America must keep their unextracted fuel reserves at roughly 73 per cent, suggested the findings. It should be mentioned here that the proportions stated in the study are a result of many elements such as carbon intensity of production, extraction costs, and the expenses of technologies functioning as an alternative to fossil fuels.

(Image: Pixabay/Representative Image)