World population expected to shrink for the first time in next several decades

For first time in centuries, world's population is expected to decline during next several deces. world's population is currently around 7.8 billion people, but analysts believe that number will peak in 2064 before declining. According to a landmark study published in Lancet,  Earth's population will peak at around 9.7 billion and n decline to 8.8 billion by 2100.

study discovered that population of specific countries such as Italy, Portugal, South Korea, Spain, Thailand, and Japan could decrease by up to 50%. Stein Emil Vollset, study's le author and Professor of Global Health at Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), told IFLScience that last time global population decreased was in mid 14th century, due to Black Plague.

According to IFLScience, he furr ded, "If our forecast is correct, it will be first time population decline is driven by fertility decline, as opposed to events such as a pandemic or famine. re are two key factors: improvements in access to modern contraception and education of girls and women."

According to him, se factors influence fertility rate ( average number of children delivered by a woman throughout her lifetime), which is most important determinant of population. He remarked that worldwide total fertility rate is expected to fall progressively from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 in 2100, significantly below minimal rate (2.1 live births per woman) considered necessary to maintain population numbers.

World Population expected to shrink to 8.79 billion in 2100

According to estimate, global population would peak at roughly 9.7 billion in 2064 and n fall to 8.79 billion in 2100. Due to low birth rates and ageing populations, up to 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy, Spain, Portugal, South Korea, and ors, might see ir populations fall by more than 50%. Even China, world's most populated country, would see its population decline from 1.4 billion in 2017 to 732 million in 2100.

While highlighting overall trend of diminishing population, study predicts that population numbers would climb in several places of world. This comprises North Africa, Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa, where population is expected to treble over next century, rising from 1.03 billion in 2017 to 3.07 billion in 2100.

(With inputs from agencies)