Future of work | 83 million jobs will vanish by 2027; 69 million new ones get created

The Future of Jobs Report 2023 by the World Economic Forun (WEF) has revealed stunning statistics about the changing landscape of jobs over the next five years worldwide that suggets almost a quarter of jobs as we know them today will be wiped off by 2027while some new opportunities would replace old ones.

A survey conducted with the estimates of 803 companies from across 45 economies shows that employers expect the creation of some 69 million jobs will get created during the period and 83 millio will get eliminated resulting in  anet decrease of 14 million jobs or a 2% reduction of employment. The sameple-size for this esmimate are 673 existing jobs existing in the companies taken into consideration for the study. 

What will drive new employment?

The WEF report suggests that the fastest-growing jobs in the near future will be available for for AI and machine learning specialists, sustainability specialists, business intelligence analysts and information security specialists; largest absolute growth is expected in education, agriculture and digital commerce.

The report suggests that macrotrends, including the green transition, ESG standards and localisation of supply chains, are the leading drivers of job growth, with economic challenges including high inflation, slower economic growth and supply shortages posing the greatest threat. Advancing technology adoption and increasing digitization will cause significant labour market churn, with an overall net positive in job creation.

“For people around the world, the past three years have been filled with upheaval and uncertainty for their lives and livelihoods, with COVID-19, geopolitical and economic shifts, and the rapid advancement of AI and other technologies now risks adding more uncertainty,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, World Economic Forum.

“The good news is that there is a clear way forward to ensure resilience. Governments and businesses must invest in supporting the shift to the jobs of the future through the education, reskilling and social support structures that can ensure individuals are at the heart of the future of work.” 

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

From the “robot revolution” to algorithm Armageddon? 

While technology continues to pose both challenges and opportunities to labour markets, employers expect most technologies to contribute positively to job creation. 

The fastest growing roles are being driven by technology and digitalization. Big data ranks at the top among technologies seen to create jobs, with 65% of survey respondents expecting job growth in related roles. The employment of data analysts and scientists, big data specialists, AI machine learning specialists and cybersecurity professionals is expected to grow on average by 30% by 2027. 

Training workers to utilise AI and big data will be prioritized by 42% of surveyed companies in the next five years, ranking behind analytical thinking (48%) and creative thinking (43%) in importance. Digital commerce will lead to the largest absolute gains in jobs: approximately 2 million new digitally enabled roles are expected, such as e-commerce specialists, digital transformation specialists, and digital marketing and strategy specialists.

At the same time, the fastest declining roles are also being driven by technology and digitalization, with clerical or secretarial roles including bank tellers, cashiers and data entry clerks expected to decline fastest. 

The Future of Jobs Report 2023 suggests that tasks are seen as no more automated now than they were three years ago when the report was last published. About a third of tasks (34%) are currently automated, just 1% above the 2020 figure. Surveyed companies also revised down their expectations for further automation, to 42% of tasks by 2027, compared to 2020 estimates of 47% of tasks by 2025.

But while expectations of the displacement of physical and manual work by machines has decreased, reasoning, communicating and coordinating – all traits with a comparative advantage for humans – are expected to be more automatable in the future.

Artificial intelligence, a key driver of potential algorithmic displacement, is expected to be adopted by nearly 75% of surveyed companies and is expected to lead to high churn – with 50% of organizations expecting it to create job growth and 25% 
expecting it to create job losses. 

Rise of green, education and agriculture jobs

The report explains that investment in the green transition and climate-change mitigation, as well as increasing consumer awareness of sustainability issues are driving industry transformation and opening new opportunities in the labour market. The strongest net job-creation effects are expected to be driven by investments that facilitate the green transition of businesses, with more than half of respondents expecting it. As countries seek more renewable energy sources, roles including renewable energy engineers and solar energy installation and systems engineers will be in high demand. 

Investment will also drive growth in more generalist sustainability roles, such as sustainability specialists and environmental protection professionals, which are expected to grow by 33% and 34% respectively, translating to growth of approximately 1 million jobs.

However, the largest absolute gains in jobs will come from education and agriculture. The report finds that jobs in the education industry are expected to grow by about 10%, leading to 3 million additional jobs for vocational education teachers and university and higher education teachers. Jobs for agricultural professionals, especially agricultural equipment operators, graders and sorters, are expected to see a 15%-30% increase, leading to an additional 4 million jobs. 

Increasing urgency for the reskilling revolution

Companies report that skills gaps and an inability to attract talent are the key barriers to transformation, showing a clear need for training and reskilling across industries. Six in 10 workers will require training before 2027 but only half of employees are seen to have access to adequate training opportunities today. At the same time, the report estimates that, on average, 44% of an 
individual worker’s skills will need to be updated.

The gap between workers’ skills and future business needs puts the onus on companies and governments to enable learning and reskilling opportunities. Government funding for skills training would help connect talent to employment, according to 45% of businesses surveyed. For example, while there is continued growth in green jobs in the past four years, as indicated by 
additional research conducted by LinkedIn for this year’s report, reskilling and upskilling towards green skills is not keeping pace.

“The sustained growth of green jobs is really great news, particularly for job seekers who are facing upheaval in the labour market,” said Sue Duke, Head of Global Public Policy, LinkedIn.

Strong cognitive skills are increasingly valued by employers, reflecting the growing importance of complex problem-solving in the workplace. The most important skills for workers in 2023 are seen to be analytical thinking and creative thinking, and this is expected to remain so in the next five years. 

Technological literacy, and AI and big data specifically, will become more important and company’s skills strategies will focus on this in the next five years. Faster reskilling is necessary – and possible. “Our research found that individuals without degrees can acquire critical skills in a comparable timeframe to those with degrees, highlighting the potential for innovative approaches such as industry micro-credentials and skills-based hiring to tackle skills gaps and talent shortages,” said Jeff Maggioncalda, CEO, Coursera.