Middle East is complicating West’s grand strategy

Not so grand. Six months ago, President Joe Biden’s administration seemingly thought the Middle East was a sideshow to global geopolitics. The U.S. and its allies wanted to focus on Russia’s war in Ukraine and stopping China from becoming too powerful.

But all that changed when Hamas gunmen carried out the deadliest attack in Israel’s history, leading to a mounting humanitarian tragedy in Gaza. Now Iran’s weekend assault on Israel has underlined the risk of a regional war.

The war in Gaza is not just distracting the rich democracies from helping Ukraine. It is also undermining support among poorer countries and has boosted Donald Trump’s chance of returning to the White House. All this is hurting the West’s grand strategy.

Failure to achieve their geopolitical goals will harm rich democracies. The rule of law, which underpins trade as well as security, will break down further. Countries will have to ramp up their defence spending even more than they are already planning to. The Western alliance could also fracture, as Russia and China play off countries against one another. If Russia defeats Ukraine, the European Union could even fragment.

The future may not turn out that way. Biden may find a way to stop the Middle East conflict escalating. Now that he is pushing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree a ceasefire in Gaza, he may even find a way to bring peace to Palestine and Israel. If he fails, the U.S. may still be able to pursue its broader objectives effectively. But it is operating with a handicap.

Attention deficit

The conflict between Israel and Hamas was bound to distract Western countries from their other priorities. Leaders have limited bandwidth. As more civilians in Gaza have been killed or driven to the edge of starvation, Western politicians have been trying to stop the fighting.

They are now also desperately attempting to prevent the conflict spreading. After Iran on Saturday launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel, Biden warned Netanyahu that the U.S. will not take part in a counterattack against Tehran. For its part the Islamic Republic, which launched the attack following a suspected Israeli strike on its consulate in Syria, said it now “deemed the matter concluded”.

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi forces had previously disrupted shipping through the Suez Canal, while the United Nations warned last week that conflict between Lebanon-based Hezbollah and Israel was expanding.

Ukraine is suffering from lack of attention. Despite running short of weapons and a recent Russian assault on the country’s energy infrastructure, the Biden administration has still been unable to push a new funding package for Kyiv through Congress.

Double standards

The Gaza conflict has also made the U.S. and its allies more vulnerable to accusations of double standards. These complaints existed long before the latest fighting broke out. Some developing countries are still angry about the U.S.-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. Some are bitter that rich countries did not share Covid vaccines more swiftly. And others are upset that Western nations have not kept their promises to provide funding to combat climate change - and are not paying enough attention to debt problems in the developing world.

Yet the U.S. reaction to how Israel has conducted its assault on Gaza has added to these concerns. The U.S. vetoed three draft resolutions on the war in Gaza in the United Nations Security Council before last month abstaining on a call for a ceasefire. It also criticised South Africa for bringing a case against Israel for genocide at the International Court of Justice.

At the same time, Western countries seem to have taken their eye off their plan to help developing countries fast-track their green transitions. This Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment is supposed to mobilise $600 billion by 2027 to rival China’s Belt and Road Initiative. It needs a reboot.

The U.S. still has a multiplicity of commercial, diplomatic, and military relationships in the rest of the world. But China and Russia have been able to exploit its double standards and attention deficit to advance their own argument that poorer countries suffer from U.S. hegemony.

Trump danger

The Gaza conflict is also hurting Biden’s re-election chances back at home. Voters who sympathise with the plight of the Palestinians are unlikely to switch their support to Trump. But a substantial number have protested the administration’s Gaza policy by voting “uncommitted” in Democratic primaries. Some could choose to stay at home during November’s presidential election.

The outbreak of fighting in Israel put Biden in a lose-lose position. If he had offered less public support to Netanyahu he would have lost pro-Israeli voters. But alienating voters on the Democratic party’s progressive wing could be even more damaging in a tight race.

If Trump does return to the White House, he could throw the West’s grand strategy up in the air. American support for Netanyahu’s hard-line approach in Gaza could put it at odds with its European allies. Meanwhile, Trump is friendlier towards Russian President Vladimir Putin and has questioned the Nato alliance.

It is unclear whether the weekend’s hostilities will affect the U.S. president’s approach. But Israel’s initial reaction was mixed. It reopened a crossing into Gaza and is taking part in new ceasefire negotiations. However, Netanyahu also said he had set a date to invade Rafah, where most of Gaza’s residents are now huddled.

If Biden can help bring about a peace deal, his grand strategy will be back on course. But stopping further escalation and securing a temporary ceasefire - which are in themselves big tasks - will only be the first step in a long and arduous process. The longer the Middle East is in conflict, the more it will complicate the West’s bigger geopolitical objectives.