India's Strategic Options in Gilgit-Baltistan amid Sectarian and Political Violence by Pakistan

Peshawar: Gilgit-Baltistan, a region nestled amidst the Himalayas and Karakoram ranges, has been under Pakistan's control since 1947 following the partition of India. This strategically important region, rich in natural resources, has played a crucial role in Pakistan's regional and economic strategies. The Karakoram Highway, a significant trade route, exemplifies Gilgit-Baltistan's geographical importance by linking Pakistan with China. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) further highlights Gilgit-Baltistan's economic significance, transforming it into a vital node for Sino-Pakistani economic cooperation. 

However, Gilgit-Baltistan's geopolitical importance is juxtaposed with political marginalization and sectarian strife. The region's populace has been deprived of fundamental political rights, exacerbated by policies and actions that have intensified sectarian tensions. This complex interplay of strategic importance and political neglect necessitates a nuanced approach from India, which must navigate the intricate dynamics to safeguard its interests in the region. 

Karakoram Highway and CPEC: Lifelines of Trade and Strategy 

The Karakoram Highway, connecting Kashgar in China to Hasan Abdal in Pakistan, is a critical artery for trade and strategic manoeuvring. Its significance is underscored by its use in transferring nuclear materials and facilitating extensive trade between China and Pakistan. Despite the economic benefits, the trade imbalance remains stark, with Pakistan importing significantly more from China. The Sost Dry Port, a major trade hub, underscores this disparity, highlighting the economic leverage China holds over Pakistan.

CPEC has further cemented Gilgit-Baltistan's strategic importance. The corridor envisaged as a game-changer for Pakistan's economy, involves substantial Chinese investments aimed at infrastructure development. However, the benefits of this economic corridor are not evenly distributed, often bypassing the local populace and exacerbating existing grievances. The strategic calculus of CPEC also brings additional complexities, with Gilgit-Baltistan becoming a focal point of geopolitical contests involving China, India, and Pakistan. 

Natural Resources: Water Scarcity and Hydropower Potential 

Gilgit-Baltistan's abundant natural resources, particularly its water reserves, have become a lifeline for Pakistan amidst a looming water crisis. The region's network of rivers and glaciers is pivotal for Pakistan's agriculture-dependent economy. Projects like the Diamer-Bhasha Dam and proposed ventures like the Katzarah and Bunji dams are crucial in addressing Pakistan's water woes and generating hydropower. These projects underscore the strategic value of Gilgit-Baltistan's natural resources, which are critical for Pakistan's energy and water security. 

Despite the strategic importance, the development of these resources often faces political and logistical challenges. The Diamer-Bhasha Dam project, for instance, has seen significant delays and controversies, reflecting the broader issues of governance and resource management in Gilgit-Baltistan. The exploitation of these resources also raises concerns about environmental sustainability and the rights of local communities, which often bear the brunt of large-scale infrastructure projects. 

Sectarian Tensions and Political Marginalization 

Gilgit-Baltistan's political landscape is marred by sectarian violence and systemic marginalization. The region's diverse demographic composition, including various sects of Islam, has often been a flashpoint for sectarian strife. The influx of Sunni hardliners and state-sponsored sectarian policies have exacerbated tensions, leading to periodic outbreaks of violence. The historical context of these tensions, dating back to the 1970s, reflects deep-seated issues within Pakistan's broader sectarian dynamics.

The political limbo in which Gilgit-Baltistan has been kept is a significant factor in its marginalization. Despite promises of greater autonomy and provincial status, the region remains under direct federal control with limited political representation. The Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self-Governance Order 2009 and subsequent promises by Pakistani leaders have done little to change the ground reality. The lack of genuine political empowerment has fueled discontent and demands for greater autonomy, which are often met with repression. 

India's Strategic and Diplomatic Options 

India's approach to Gilgit-Baltistan must be multifaceted, balancing strategic imperatives with diplomatic engagement. Historically, India's Kashmir policy has been influenced by Cold War dynamics and international perceptions. However, the changing geopolitical landscape, marked by the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and China's growing influence, necessitates a recalibrated strategy. India must decide whether to pursue the liberation of Gilgit-Baltistan or to formalize the Line of Control as the de facto border.

Building a narrative around Pakistan's human rights abuses in Gilgit-Baltistan is crucial. Highlighting these issues on international platforms can put pressure on Pakistan and garner global support for Gilgit-Baltistan's plight. Additionally, India should engage with nationalist and separatist groups within Gilgit-Baltistan, fostering alliances that can amplify the region's voice. Educational initiatives to raise awareness about Gilgit-Baltistan's historical and geopolitical significance within India are also essential in garnering domestic support for a more proactive Gilgit-Baltistan policy. 

Leveraging International Partnerships and Strategic Patience 

India's strengthening ties with the United States and other global powers can be leveraged to exert pressure on Pakistan regarding Gilgit-Baltistan. Strategic partnerships can provide India with the necessary diplomatic clout to influence outcomes in the region. At the same time, India must exhibit strategic patience and perseverance, recognizing that achieving long-term objectives in Gilgit-Baltistan requires a careful and measured approach.

India's engagement with Gilgit-Baltistan must also involve building economic and cultural connections. Promoting trade, tourism, and infrastructure development in Kashmir and Ladakh can serve as a model for Gilgit-Baltistan, showcasing the benefits of integration with India. Furthermore, supporting research and cultural initiatives that highlight Gilgit-Baltistan's unique heritage can foster a deeper understanding and appreciation of the region's complexities. 

Gilgit-Baltistan's strategic significance and political dynamics present both challenges and opportunities for India. The region's importance in terms of geography, natural resources, and geopolitical contests necessitates a nuanced and multi-pronged approach. While Pakistan's policies have kept Gilgit-Baltistan in a state of political limbo, India's strategic and diplomatic initiatives can play a crucial role in shaping the region's future. By leveraging international partnerships, building a compelling narrative, and fostering local alliances, India can navigate the intricate landscape of Gilgit-Baltistan to advance its long-term strategic interests. The pursuit of these objectives requires patience, strategic foresight, and a commitment to supporting the rights and aspirations of the people of Gilgit-Baltistan.