China’s Middle East Strategy in Flux as Syrian Insurgents Overthrow Longtime Ally Bashar Assad

Damascus, Syria - The unexpected ousting of Syrian President Bashar Assad on December 8, 2024, has sent shockwaves across the global geopolitical landscape, with China facing significant uncertainties. For decades, Beijing has cultivated a close relationship with Assad’s regime, marked by robust economic partnerships and consistent political support. However, the collapse of this alliance exposes the risks inherent in China's strategic prioritization of stability and economic gains over human rights and democratic values.

China, which often positions itself as a stabilizing force in global politics, must now confront the consequences of backing a leader widely condemned for his brutal governance during Syria’s protracted civil war. This moment represents a potential turning point for Sino-Syrian relations and challenges China's broader Middle Eastern strategy.

A Historical Alliance Under Strain

Syria was one of the earliest Arab nations to establish diplomatic ties with China in 1956, forging a bond that has endured through decades of regional and global upheaval. The relationship deepened in 1971 when Syria played a pivotal role in advocating for China’s seat at the United Nations, a gesture Beijing has consistently acknowledged.

Since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, China has provided political and economic support to Assad’s regime. According to Liu Zhongmin, a professor at Shanghai International Studies University, China has consistently defended Syria’s sovereignty, offering diplomatic backing during international crises. While nations like Russia and Iran supplied military aid to Assad, China maintained a non-interventionist stance, focusing instead on infrastructure investments and reconstruction projects.

What of Beijing's Economic Investments?

China’s involvement in Syria has been primarily economic. As part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing has invested heavily in Syrian infrastructure and energy sectors. The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has collaborated with Syrian entities to explore oil development, while Chinese firms have been instrumental in constructing factories and other critical infrastructure.

Despite the ongoing conflict, bilateral trade between the two nations has persisted, with trade volumes reaching $2.2 billion in 2009. Although the civil war caused fluctuations, China remained committed to investing billions in Syria’s reconstruction. Beijing viewed these efforts as a means to solidify its influence in the Middle East and ensure long-term returns on its investments.

The abrupt overthrow of Assad by anti-government forces marks a seismic shift in Syria’s political landscape. The Chinese government has responded cautiously, emphasizing its hope for stability and prioritizing the safety of its citizens and investments in Syria. However, the collapse of Assad’s regime threatens to undermine years of economic and diplomatic efforts.

China’s reliance on Assad’s government for strategic access to the region now appears precarious. With significant investments in Syrian oil, textiles, and infrastructure projects, Beijing must navigate the uncertainty of dealing with a new, potentially hostile regime. The prospect of diminished Chinese influence in Syria poses broader implications for its Middle Eastern strategy.

Ethical Concerns and Global Perceptions

Beijing’s unwavering support for Assad has drawn criticism from the international community, particularly regarding its use of veto power at the United Nations to block sanctions against the regime. Critics argue that China’s actions reflect a troubling willingness to disregard human rights in favor of economic and strategic interests.

As the world watches Syria’s transformation, China’s role as a staunch ally of a deposed dictator raises questions about its global commitments to stability and ethical governance. While China has championed its investments as a means of fostering growth and development, its association with Assad complicates its narrative as a responsible global power.

The overthrow of Bashar Assad signals a critical juncture for China. The need to reassess its Middle Eastern strategy and adapt to the new political realities in Syria has never been more urgent. Beijing’s ability to maintain its investments and influence in the region will depend on how effectively it can engage with the emerging leadership while mitigating the fallout from its association with Assad’s regime. How Beijing responds to these challenges could redefine its role in the Middle East and reshape its global reputation.