Republic Double Exit Poll for Goa: While Jan Ki Baat projects mild advantage for BJP, CVoter projects equal split

The electoral process for the largest democracy in the world comes to a close on Sunday with the conclusion of the seventh and final phase of the 17th Lok Sabha elections. An estimated 900 million citizens would have given their mandate in thousands of polling booths across India, sealing the fates of aspirants to 542 seats (election to the Vellore Lok Sabha seat stands countermanded) in India's lower house of Parliament and going a long way to determining which coalition would form the next government. While what the 39 days of polling have led to will be revealed on counting day on May 23, before that, Republic Media Network has broadcast India's biggest exit poll - a mega double exit poll in collaboration with the country's top pollsters Jan Ki Baat and CVoter.

Both Jan Ki Baat and CVoter have conducted extensive on-ground surveys across the nation after each of the seven phases of the 2019 polls. They will present a prospective picture of how each of the coalitions, the NDA and the UPA and the nascent third front, as well as all the other parties in the country will do in every state and union territory and based on those numbers project whether or not the NDA will come back with a bigger mandate than what it had received in 2014 - something that the BJP believes that it would - or whether the UPA will have fought back to win majority seats, which would be a huge leap from the mere 44 the Congress had won five years ago. 

Goa:

With just two seats to determine the fate of the parties in Goa, it appears that the BJP is likely to continue to keep up its 2014 win, as per the Jan Ki Baat survey. The CVoter survey however projects that the BJP and Congress will each win one.

The BJP had lost its majority in the 2017 assembly polls in the state, but managed to form a government under the leadership of the late Manohar Parrikar who helped forge an alliance with Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), Goa Forward Party (GFP) and some independents. With the demise of former CM Manohar Parikkar, BJP's Pramod Sawant has taken over as the chief minister of Goa.

Projections for Goa:

CVoter exit poll:

Seat share:

UPA-1
NDA-1
Others-0

Vote share: 

UPA-37.4%
NDA-48.0%
Others-14.6%

Jan Ki Baat survey -

BJP: 1-2 (2)

INC: 0-1 (0)

Others:0-1 (2)

Historical data:

The battle for Goa:

A recent political battle was fought between the Congress and the BJP following Manohar Parrikar's death as the grand old party had claimed to have a majority. However, BJP annointed the CM soon after Parrikar's death and retained the power in the state.The new CM Pramod Sawant won the trust vote in the assembly.

Soon after that, Manohar Ajgaonkar and another Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) MLA Dipak Pawaskar merged their party's legislative wing with the BJP.

READ | Republic Double Exit Poll For Uttar Pradesh: Jan Ki Baat Projects BJP Win With Over Half The State's Seats, CVoter Projects SP-BSP Mahagathbandhan Fightback, Congress To Lose

The election story so far:

The elections were fought bitterly between the two major national parties.  Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is seeking a second term in the Parliament, addressed a total of 144 rallies and roadshows highlighting his many welfare schemes. His Varanasi roadshow had a huge turnout leading many to ask if there is indeed a Modi wave in 2019. Rahul Gandhi addressed a total of 125 rallies making Congress' allegations of corruption in the Rafale deal against the Centre and its manifesto promise of NYAY scheme the key points in the events.

Several leaders across party lines were notified by the Election Commission for violating Model Code of Conduct. Azam Khan, Yogi Adityanath, Maneka Gandhi, Sadhvi Pragya, Mayawati being a few of them. 

Republic Media Network set the agenda on several occasions in the poll season. From broadcasting Prime Minister's first and final interview for the Lok Sabha campaigning to conducting #MPsOnSale sting on sitting MPs who showed they were willing to compromise on the interest of those they are supposed to represent as well as Operation Karz Maafi sting that exposed the falsehood in the Congress' farm loan-waiver promise.

The vote counting for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls will be held on May 23. Join Arnab on Republic Media Network for non-stop coverage of the sensational conclusion to the general elections.