Republic Double Exit poll: Congress projected to repeat Captain Amarinder Singh's 2017 win, BJP to stumble while AAP may vanish entirely say CVoter and Jan Ki Baat

As the polling in the all-important 2019 Lok Sabha polls - the largest exercise in democratic franchise anywhere in the world - has officially come to an end, the countdown for the deciding-day - May 23  has begun, when the results of the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections will finally be declared. While India is on the threshold of welcoming a new government, the Republic Media Network has broadcast India's biggest exit poll - the mega double exit poll in collaboration with the country's top pollsters Jan Ki Baat and CVoter. 

An estimated 900 million citizens voted in thousands of polling booths in every corner of the country in the 39 days-long voting process. Vote-counting will be held for 542 seats in the Lower House of India's Parliament (Vellore in Tamil Nadu stands countermanded) and the country awaits with the crucial numbers regarding the composition of the 17th Lok Sabha.

While the exact numbers will be declared on May 23, Republic Media Network presents mega double exit poll a projection of how the seat-shares and vote-shares could turn out for each of the states and union territories of India, and put together, project whether the BJP and NDA will be able to repeat their historic mandate of 2014 and conversely, whether the Congress, UPA will be able to make a fightback from reaching a historic low. The projections are made after conducting extensive on-ground surveys all across the country following each of the seven phases of the 2019 polls.

Projection for Punjab (Total 13 seats):

CVoter:

Seat-share projection: 

NDA:  2 seats

UPA: 11 seats

CVoter vote-share projection:

UPA: 40.9 per cent

NDA: 36.2 per cent

Jan Ki Baat: 

Seat-share projection:

BJP: 1 seat
Akali Dal: 3 seats
Congress: 9 seats
AAP: 0

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Political scenario in the state: 

The Lok Sabha election in the state of Punjab is like a mid-term test for its Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh under whom Congress party stormed to power with a two-thirds majority in the 2017 assembly polls after ten years.

While the Congress is looking forward to continuing its winning streak in the state owing to their victory in by polls and municipal elections, the BJP is banking upon the internal bickering within the Congress government in the state and anti-incumbency due to unkept promises by Captain. The SAD-BJP alliance had won six seats in the 2014 parliamentary elections before getting pushed to the number three position with its worst-ever tally in the 2017 state polls. The Akalis, particularly the Badals, have been on the back foot over the incident of the sacrilege of the Guru Granth Sahib and police firing incidents in 2015. But they have taken the Congress head-on by countering its Panthic pitch by raking up the 1984 anti-Sikh riots and role of Sajjan Kumar and other leaders. The recent controversy over Congress' overseas chief Sam Pitroda's comment on the 1984 riots sparked widespread anger against the party just before the elections. However, Captin is confident that the people of the state will vote on the development works he has undertaken in these years. 

Arvind Kejriwal led AAP, which won four seats on its debut in the Lok Sabha election in 2014 and then came second in the assembly polls to become the third force in the state’s long-standing bipolar politics of the state. Though the party has fielded its candidates in all the 13 seats, its poll battle is limited to Sangrur and Faridkot where sitting MPs Bhagwant Mann and Sadhu Singh are in the fray.

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These are the key contest in the state:

1. Amritsar: In 2014 Congress' Captain Amarinder Singh won with a margin of 1,02,770 votes.
   In 2019, Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri (BJP) is pitted against Gurjeet Singh Aujla (Congress), ALso in the fray is Kuldip Singh Dhaliwal (AAP).
   While Aujla is trying to cash in on his local connect, terming his opponent as an 'outsider', Puri is harping on the Modi factor and the central ministry he holds. Contrary to the 2014 polls, when the seat witnessed a fierce battle between Captain Amarinder Singh (Congress) and Union finance minister Arun Jaitley (BJP), which the later lost by a margin of over one lakh votes, this time, the ‘X-factor’ is missing as the candidates are comparatively low-profile.
    
2. Gurdaspur: In 2014 BJP's Vinod Khanna won with a margin of 1,36,065 votes.
   In 2019, BJP has fielded actor turned politician Sunny Deol against Sunil Kumar Jakhar of Congress. Peter Masih of AAP is also pitted against them. Actor-turned-politician Sunny Deol who recently joined BJP is pitted against Congress sitting MP Sunil Jakhar. Jakhar won the seat in the bypolls in 2017 following the demise of BJP MP and actor Vinod Khanna. The constituency was traditionally a Congress stronghold but in 1998 Vinod Khanna defeated Congress stalwart Sukhbans Kaur Bhinder. Khanna won again in 1999 and 2004. In 2009, he faced defeat at the hands of Congress leader Partap Singh Bajwa but in 2014 won again by defeating Bajwa.
    
3. Bathinda: In 2014, SAD's Harsimrat Kaur Badal won with a margin of 19,395 votes.
   In 2019 the fight is between Harsimrat Kaur Badal (SAD) Vs Amrinder Singh Raja Warring (Congress) Vs Baljinder Kaur (AAP)
   The battle in 2014 was between the ‘Badal bahu’ and her husband Sukhbir Badal’s cousin Manpreet, who contested on a Congress ticket. This time, two-time MP Harsimrat is facing strong anti-incumbency and had the entire Badal family campaigning for her. Her opponent is Congress’s Amrinder Singh Raja Warring. Punjab finance minister Manpreet Badal and Navjot Sidhu have been campaigning for Amrinder.

The Lok Sabha election stretched for more than one month saw heated campaigning from all parties. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi, seeking a second term in the office, addressed a total of 144 rallies and roadshows this election season, Congress president Rahul Gandhi addressed 125 rallies in the 2019 polls with the elections also marking the entry of his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as an official member of the Congress.

In the Lok Sabha elections 2019, there were controversies galore over the course of the polls, ranging from poll violence being witnessed in each of the 7 phases of voting in Bengal, to some shocking statements from leaders across parties, with the likes of Azam Khan, Yogi Adityanath, Maneka Gandhi and others being struck down on by the Election Commission, and others, like Sam Pitroda, Sadhvi Pragya and Kamal Haasan triggering mass outrage. 

A number of Republic Media Network newsbreaks especially set the agenda for the polls, including the first interview of the Prime Minister's election campaign to Republic's Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami and his final campaign interview to Executive Editor Abhishek Kapoor. Alongside these were the sensational #MPsOnSale sting on sitting MPs who showed themselves willing to compromise the interests of those whom they claim to represent, the Operation Karz Maafi sting that exposed the falsehood in the Congress' farm loan-waiver promise, and numerous others.

The vote counting for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls will be held on May 23. Join Arnab on Republic Media Network for non-stop coverage of the sensational conclusion to the general elections here.

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