Republic Double Exit Poll for Tamil Nadu: Major gains projected for DMK and MK Stalin, AIADMK to witness big slide in 2019 compared to 2014's massive success

With the completion of the seventh and final phase of voting on Sunday in seven states and one union territory of India, the polling in the all-important 2019 Lok Sabha polls - the largest exercise in democratic franchise anywhere in the world - has officially come to an end. With an estimated 900 million citizens voting in thousands of polling booths in every corner of the country, what remains now is the final vote-counting which will encapsulate the results of 39 days of voting and determine the composition of the 17th Lok Sabha, and onwards from there, the next government of India. However, before that moment of truth on May 23, the Republic Media Network has broadcast India's biggest exit poll - the mega double exit poll in collaboration with the country's top pollsters Jan Ki Baat and CVoter. 

After conducting extensive on-ground surveys all across the country following each of the seven phases of the 2019 polls, the double Republic Exit Poll presents a projection of how the seat-shares and vote-shares could turn out for each of the states and union territories of India, and put together, project whether the BJP and NDA will be able to repeat their historic mandate of 2014 and conversely, whether the Congress, UPA will be able to make a fightback from reaching a historic low.

Tamil Nadu:

The electorally significant state of Tamil Nadu sends 39 MPs to the Lok Sabha, which saw voting on April 18 in a single phase. The state witnessed an estimated 71% voter turnout with DMK and AIADMK locking horns in 38 constituencies. The Election Commission countermanded the elections for Tamil Nadu's Vellore Lok Sabha constituency following the massive seizures of unaccounted cash made by Income Tax (IT) department from the cement warehouse of a DMK functionary.

Following a volatile three years in the state which witnessed the demise of sitting CM and AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa as well as her predecessor and DMK chief Karunanidhi, the 2019 Lok Sabha polls present the first opportunity for the state to gauge where it stands politically. Tamil Nadu has also seen the entry of actor-turned-politician Kamal Haasan's political party Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) contesting in these elections. Furthermore, in February 2019, Congress and DMK-led by MK Stalin sealed an alliance for the polls, following which the BJP allied with the AIADMK. Along with these, TTV Dinakaran’s Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) is also in the fray, but more so for the by-elections to 22 assembly constituencies which will also have results declared on May 23. 

Exit poll projections:

Jan Ki Baat:

As per Jann Ki Baat's projection, the UPA comprising Congress and DMK is projected to emerge on top in the state with the DMK leading the charge. 

• NDA: 9-13 (10) of which BJP is projected to win 2 seats
• UPA: 15-29 (28) of which Congress is projected to win 3 seats

Republic-Jan Ki Baat Exit Poll Projection: NDA Will Form The Government, Likely To Cross 300+ Mark Comfortably; Congress To Fall Short Of 100

CVoter:

As per CVoter, the UPA alliance is projected to win the state by quite a margin, with DMK winning 22 of the alliance's 27 projected seats. The AIADMK, meanwhile, is projected to win 10 seats and the BJP, 1, taking the alliance's tally to 11. The vote-share projections show 43.1 percent votes for the Congress-DMK alliance in the state, while the BJP-AIADMK alliance is projected to gain 37.2 percent votes. Others are predicted to get 19.7 percent voteshare.  

Seat-Share:

• UPA: 27 (DMK: 22 // Congress:5)
• NDA: 11 (AIADMK: 10 // BJP: 1)

Vote-Share: 

• UPA: 43.1%
• NDA: 37.2%
• Others: 19.7%

Republic-CVoter Exit Poll Projection: NDA Will Cross Halfway Mark, Modi Set To Form The Government Again, Congress Likely To Fall Short Of 100 Mark

Historical pattern:

In the 2014 General Elections, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) clinched a massive 37 seats with a total vote share of 44.9 per cent, emerging as the country's third-largest party. To put things into perspective, the Congress won only 44 seats in 2014. 

The vote counting for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls will be held on May 23. Join Arnab on Republic Media Network for non-stop coverage of the sensational conclusion to the general elections here.

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