National Approval Ratings: In Jammu and Kashmir, UPA is projected to win the state, leaving PDP and NDA on the losing side

With a three day countdown to the Lok Sabha elections 2019 underway, 900 million Indias citizens are set to exercise their role in the biggest democracy to determine their political representatives for 543 parliamentary seats. It's a political race where PM Narendra Modi is foreseeing his second term, while the Opposition is aiming to oust the NDA government. 

Republic TV and CVoter have presented the National Approval Ratings i.e the biggest opinion poll ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

A crucial state, Jammu and Kashmir that is currently under Presidential rule has a total of 6 Lok Sabha seats. The state has been a witness to terrorism, political variance, insurgency and repeated ceasefire violations from the neighbour Pakistan. 

UPA (which includes the National Conference) is projected to win 4 seats, followed by NDA with 2 seats, leaving none for Mehbooba Mufti's PDP. As far as vote share is concerned both UPA and NDA will secure 38.6%, followed by Others at 16.5% and PDP at 6.4%. 

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Vote-share

UPA- 38.6%
NDA-38.1%
PDP-6.4
Others-16.3%

Seat-share

UPA- 4
NDA-2
PDP-0

Total -6

In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP was leading the vote-share with of 32.4%, followed by 34% by UPA and PDP with 20.5%. The BJP and PDP had each won 3 seats. 

The state has been under the scanner following the ghastly Pulwama attack, the issues of national security and BJP's stance of aborgating Article 370, which did not go down well with regional party leaders Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti. 

The Abdullah scion called for 'separate Prime Minister and President for J&K', Mufti went ahead to say that the state will gain 'freedom' from India and went on the make a contrast between India-Jammu and Kashmir relations with that of Israel-Palestine over the abolishment of Article 370 from the state.  

Comparison from previous predictions: 

March prediction: The UPA (which includes the National Conference) is likely to win 4 seats out of 6 seats, whereas NDA (which is the BJP here) may win 2 seats. The PDP and the Congress is projected to go empty handed with zero seats.

January predictions: Out of the 6 seats up for grabs, the predictions for January suggest that UPA was set to gain 4 seats, leaving NDA with 2 seats. UPA was predicted to gain over NDA by 4.6%, making a clear path of victory for UPA government.  

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