Bihar Election Results 2020 LIVE Updates: NDA wins 125, Nitish Kumar to be CM for 5th time

The Bihar assembly elections results were declared around midnight on November 10-November 11, with the ruling coalition - NDA winning 125 in the 243-member assembly, against Mahagathbandhan's 110.  Even as the contest remained neck and neck throughout the day, RJD under the leadership of Tejashwi Yadav, became the single largest party with 75 seats, followed by BJP's 74. While Chirag Paswan's LJP won one seat, it made a major dent in JDU's tally that has come down to 43 from 71 in 2015. The biggest clincher is Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM winning 5 seats and CPI-ML  winning 12 seats. The other two left parties - CPI and CPI-M won two each. The other two alliance partners of NDA - HAM and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) won four seats each.

NDA - 125 (BJP - 74, JDU - 43, HAM(S) - 4 VIP - 4)

Mahagathbandhan - 110 (RJD - 75, Congress - 19, CPI-ML - 12, CPM - 2, CPI - 2)

Grand Democratic Secular Front -  AIMIM - 5, BSP - 1

BJP: 64 seats won, 10 leads
JDU: 40 seats won, 3 leads
HAM: 4 won
VIP: 4 won

NDA total: 111 won, 14 leads

RJD: 70 won, 5 leads
Congress: 18 won, 1 lead
Left: 14 won, 2 leads

MGB: 101 won, 9 leads

AIMIM: 5, LJP: 1, BSP: 1, Ind: 1

Bihar Election Results 2020 show wrong to write-off Left parties; would have won more seats if given: CPI(M) general secretary Sitaram Yechury
 

• Madhya Pradesh: BJP: 19 (16 won, 3 lead), Congress:9 (7 won, 2 lead) 
• Karnataka: BJP: 2
• Jharkhand: JMM, Congress: 1 each
• Haryana: Congress: 1
• Chhatisgarh: Cong: 1
• Gujarat: BJP: 8
• Uttar Pradesh: BJP: 6 ; SP: 1
• Telanagana: BJP: 1
• Odisha: BJD: 2
• Nagaland: Ind: 1, NDP: 1
• Manipur: BJP: 4, Ind: 1
   

BJP state general secretary Bhupendra Yadav says, "It is clear that people supported development, peace and democracy. NDA has got full majority. I want to thank all the women in bihar that they participated in this. We want to say that rjd cannot digest their defeat, they tried to spread rumours. They are like that if you win a sport then the match is yours and if not then you take your bat, wickets with you."

Deputy CM Sushil Modi says, "This is the fourth time NDA has got an oppurtunity to serve. Bihar's people gave clear majority." Lashing at the Opposition, he added, "These are those people who were opposing elections because they knew they will lose."

BiharElection2020: Election Commission of India (ECI) will hold a press briefing at 1 AM

BJP: 54 seats won, 18 leads
JDU: 32 seats won, 11 leads
HAM: 3 won, 1 lead
VIP: 4 won

NDA total: 93 won, 30 leads

RJD: 62 won, 14 leads
Congress: 16 won, 3 lead
Left: 13 won, 3 leads

MGB: 91 won, 20 leads

AIMIM: 5, LJP: 1, BSP: 1, Ind: 1
 

Results declared for 165 seats out of the total 243. 

NDA wins 83 seats (BJP 47, JDU 29, VIP 4, HAM 3), leading on 39

Mahagathbandhan wins 76 seats (RJD 52, Congress 12, Left 12), ahead on 37

AIMIM wins 4, leading on 1; BSP wins 1, & Independent 1, Lok Janshakti Party wins one seat

BJP candidate Shreyasi Singh wins from Jamui State Assembly constituency in Bihar

"Its a day for great day for AIMIM. Bihar have blessed us with votes and their trust - making us win 5 seats. I wish to thank the people of Seemanchal and will get justice for India's most backward region - Seemanchal. There are no schools, colleges and is always affected by floods. Our elected MLAs will try to solve these peoblems. I would like to thank my allies Upendra Kushwaha and Mayawati," he said.

He added, "Of the 21 candidates we fielded, 5 have won. Places where we did not get the success, we will go there too and will try to find out the faults. I did 65 gatherings there for candidates of Kushwaha Saab's party, for BSP, and for my party too. Though we fieded Kushwaha Saab as our CM, we have exceeded our expections"

Chirag Paswan's solo venture has yielded one electoral win - Matihani. LJP's Raj Kumar Singh trumped JDU sitting MLA - Narendra Kumar Singh.

In the 2015 Bihar Assembly elections, Narendra Kumar Singh Alias Bogo Singh of JDU won in this seat by defeating Sarvesh Kumar of BJP by a margin of 22,688 votes which was 12.44% of the total votes polled in the constituency. JDU had a vote share of 48.97% in 2015 in the seat

Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan over phone on BJP's stupendous victory in Madhya Pradesh bypolls. Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan also thanked the Prime Minister and the central leadership. BJP won 19 out of 28 seats up for polls.

• Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) leader Jitan Ram Manjhi wins from Imamganj Assembly constituency
• RJD leader Tej Pratap Yadav wins Hasanpur seat by 21,139 votes: Election Commisssion

3.40 crore votes have been counted till 8 pm.

• Madhya Pradesh: BJP: 19 (11 won, 8 lead), Congress: 9 (1 won, 8 lead) 
• Karnataka: BJP: 2
• Jharkhand: JMM, Congress: 1 each
• Haryana: Congress: 1
• Chhatisgarh: Cong: 1
• Gujarat: BJP: 8
• Uttar Pradesh: BJP: 6 won; SP: 1
• Telanagana: BJP: 1
• Odisha: BJD: Leads 2
• Nagaland: Ind: 1, NDP: 1
• Manipur: BJP: 4, Ind: 1

Congress candidate Luv Sinha - son of party leader Shatrughan Sinha - trailing behind BJP's Nitin Nabin from Bankipur assembly constituency, as per Election Commission trends. 

According to Jan Ki Baat polls:

• Mahagathbandhan- Leads in 61 seats, won 56 seats
• NDA - Leads in 52 seats, won 68 seats
• Others - Lead in 4 seats, won 2 seats

Here is a regionwise split:

Chandrika Rai, father-in-law of RJD's Tej Pratap Yadav & JDU candidate from Parsa loses to RJD's Chhote Lal Ray.

"We trust our work of 15 years and trust Bihar's people. We (JDU & BJP) fight on an equal share of seats in state elections and Lok sabha elections, there are no issues," says JDU spokesperson K C Tyagi.

"The emphasis of EC is that procedures & guidelines relating to counting & COVID are to be sincerely followed. EC has directed that officials need not be in haste or hurry to declare results, they should take as much time as naturally required", says Secy-Gen, Election Commission.

He added, "As far as Bihar is concerned, on the whole 7737 scheduled rounds were there, of which 4858 have been completed. 119 constituencies have done more than half of the work which was there for counting."

BJP has won 6 seats, leads in 66, while JDU won 2 seats, leads in 41 seats. On the otherhand, RJD has won 2 seats, leads in 72 seats, Congress won 1 seat, leads in 19 seats.

Others- AIMIM won 1 seat and leads in 4 seats, Left lead in 18 seats, LJP has won no seat

Tejashwi Yadav leading from Raghopur against BJP's Satish Kumar by 9317 votes

Mahagathbandhan's CM face Tejashwi Yadav faces  BJP's Satish Kumar, who had defeated Rabri Devi in 2010 state election and LJP's Rakesh Roshan.  As per census data, 1.30 lakh Yadavs form the bulk of the voters, the constituency has a significant presence of upper-caste Rajputs, whose electorate size is estimated at around 40,000 followed by Muslims at 22,000 and Paswans at 18,000. In 2015, then 25-year-old Tejashwi defeated BJP's Kumar when the BJP had gone solo. While it has been a Lalu Yadav bastion in 1995, 2000, 2005 - Tejashwi has campaigned only once in Raghopur in 2020, unlike his competitors who have been canvassing extensively.

Tej Pratap Yadav leading from Hasanpur against JDU's Raj Kumar Ray 

Tej Pratap who had contested from Mahua in 2015, shifted to "safe" seat of Hasanpur, after rumours that his estranged wife Aishwariya Rai would contest on an NDA ticket at Mahua. In  Hasanpur, Tej Pratap is pitted against sitting JDU MLA  Raj Kumar Rai, who has been holding the seat since 2010. This Yadav-dominated assembly segment from Samastipur district has seen extensive rallies by Tej Pratap with visuals of him playing cricket, riding a tractor in a field, playing the flute, and eating 'litti-Chokha', appearing on social media. Yadavs constitute nearly 65,000 of the total voters, while the Muslim electorate numbers 25,000. Forward castes' count is around 20,000 while Paswans' strength is around 18,000, Kushwahas (16,000) and Extremely Backward Castes (13,000) are said to constitute the remaining.

BJP MLA Nitin Nabin leads by 14638 votes against Congress' Luv Sinha from Bankipur

Congress' poll debutant Luv Sinha - son of actor-turned-politician Shatrughan Sinha faces a formidable battle with four-time sitting BJP MLA Nitin Nabin. Other candidates in the fray are The Plurals Party chief Pushpam Priya, independent candidate and Oxford University academician Manish Barriarr. The Bankipur assembly which comes within the Patna Sahib Lok Sabha constituency, has over 25 percent upper caste Kayastha voters - making it a BJP stronghold. In 2015, Nabin defeated Kumar Ashish from the Congress party with a margin of around 39,000 votes.

Govindganj: BJP's Sunil Mani Tiwari leading against Congress's Brajesh Kumar 

Inspite of Chirag Paswan's promise to not contest against BJP, LJP's sitting MLA Raju Tiwari will face a triangular re-election battle with Congress' Brajesh Pandey and BJP's Sunil Mani Tiwari. Apart from Govindganj, Paswan has fielded LJP candidates against BJP in 4 other seats. These include 2 sitting MLAs- Lalganj's Raj Kumar & Govindganj's Raju Tiwari - who is also LJP state parliamentary board president. BJP eyes to win this seat - which it has not held since 2010.

Kishanganj: Congress' Ijrahul Husain leading against BJP's Sweety Sigh by 7287 votes

The constituency becomes crucial as it was the first seat where the AIMIM made an entry in Bihar after its candidate won the seat. As many as 20 candidates are in the fray but the fight is between AIMIM's Kamrul Hoda, Congress' Izrahul Hussain and BJP's Sweety Singh. A minority-dominated seat - in 2010 and 2015 Congress candidate Javed Azad had won in assembly polls  but his mother lost the seat in the Lok Sabha polls. Citizenship Amendment Act has been a poll campaign issue in the area with Muslim population, with the AIMIM lashing out at JDU for supporting it in the parliament.

Sikti: BJP Vijay Mandal leading against RJD's Shatrughan Suman

 RJD has fielded Shatrughan Mandal from Sikti assembly constituency, situated in Araria district, whereas sitting MLA Vijay Mandal will defend the seat for BJP. The seat is one of the 20 constituencies where BJP and RJD are in a direct contest. In 2015, Vijay Mandal had defeated Suman by 8,106 votes. Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Forbesganj (Araria district) on the last day of his election campaigning enlisted the works of Nitish led government. However, the seat has a large presence of Yadav and Muslim voters - vote bank of the RJD.

As per Election Commission, NDA has won 5 seats and is leading on 118 (80+ 38) seats, Mahagathbandhan has won 3 seats and are leading on 108 (38+70) seats.

Anand Shankar Singh of Congress wins from Aurangabad assembly seat against Bharatiya Janata Party's Ramadhar Singh

BJP's Ram Chandra Prasad wins from Hayaghat assembly seat against RJD's Bhola Yadav

Satanand Sambuddha of RJD wins from Sahebpur Kamal against Shashikant Kumar Shashi alias Amar Kumar Singh of Janata Dal (United)

Vikassheel Insaan Party's Mishri Lal Yadav wins from Alinagar assembly constituency 
 

• JD(U) wins from Valmikinagar 
• BJP wins from Ramnagar    
• BJP wins from Narkatiaganj    
• BJP wins from Bagaha
• BJP wins from Lauriya    
• BJP wins from Nautan    
• BJP wins from Chanpatia    
• BJP wins from Bettiah    
• BJP wins from Sikta    
• BJP wins from Raxaul    
• BJP wins from Motihari
• BJP wins from Dhaka
• BJP wins from Bathnaha
• BJP wins from Sitamarhi    
• JD(U) wins from Runnisaidpur
• RJD wins from Belsand
• JD(U) wins from Nirmali
• JD(U) wins from Pipra    
• JD(U) wins from Supaul    
• BJP wins from Narpatganj    
• Congress wins from Araria    
• AIMIM wins from Jokihat    
• RJD wins from Goh
• RJD wins from Obra
• RJD wins from Nabinagar
• Congress wins from Kutumb
• Congress wins from Aurangabad    
• RJD wins from Rafiganj
• Congress wins from Rajpur    
• BSP wins from Ramgarh
• RJD wins from Mohania    
• RJD wins from Bhabua
• BSP wins from Chainpur
• BJP wins from Sikti    
• CPI(ML) wins from Paliganj    
• Congress wins from Bikram    
• RJD wins from Sandesh    
• BJP wins from Barhara
• CPI(ML) wins from Arrah    
• CPI(ML) wins from Agiaon    
• RJD wins from Mokama    
• BJP wins from Digha    
• BJP wins from Bankipur

• Shashi Bhushan Hajari of JDU wins from Kusheshwar Asthan by a margin of 7222 votes 
• Ashok Choudary of JDU wins from Sakra seat 

• Raghopur: RJD's Tejashwi Yadav leading against BJP's Satish Kumar, and LJP's Rakesh Roshan. (as per EC and Jan ki Baat)

• Hasanpur: RJD's Tej Pratap Yadav leading against JDU's Raj Kumar Ray (as per EC and Jan ki Baat)

• Bankipur: BJP's Nitin Nabin leading against Congress Luv Sinha  (as per EC and Jan ki Baat)

• Imamganj: HAM's Jitan Ram Manjhi leading against RJD's Uday Narain Choudhary (as per EC and Jan ki Baat)

• Dumraon: CPI (M-L) Ajit Kumar Singh leading against Janata Dal (United)'s Anjum Ara (as per EC and Jan ki Baat)

• Kishanganj: Congress Ijaharul Husain leading against BJP's Sweety Singh (as per EC and Jan ki Baat)

• Madhepura: JDU's Nikhil Mandal leading against RJD's Chnadra Shekhar and JAP's Pappu Yadav (as per EC and Jan ki Baat)

• Saharsa: BJP's Alok Ranjan leading against RJD's Lovely Anand (as per EC and Jan ki Baat)

• Dinara: LJP's Rajendra Prasad Singh leading against RJD's Vijay Kumar Mandal (as per EC and Jan ki Baat)

NDA still leading, now on 125 seats with Mahagathbandhan on 109; 'Chirag Paswan wasn't fighting to win elections, he was fighting to defeat JDU,' says JDU's Ashok Chaudhary
 

The ruling BJP in Madhya Pradesh is leading in 21 of the 28 Assembly constituencies for which byelections were held while the Congress is ahead in six seats, as per the trends. BJP candidate Imarti Devi has taken the lead in Dabra Assembly constituency by over 2000 votes. 

Imarti Devi said, “It is understandable in the initial trend that BJP is winning in Madhya Pradesh. I want to say that people have given a befitting reply to Kamal Nath for the abusive language that he used against me. On ex-CM Kamal Nath's victory claim in Madhya Pradesh, she stated, "There is nothing wrong in making claims."

Sanjay Saraogi of BJP wins Darbhanga seat 

 

Addressing the media in the national capital on Tuesday, the Election Commission of India rubbished the opposition's allegation that the EVMs can be hacked. Stressing that the EVMs are robust and tamper-proof, Deputy Election Commissioner Sudeep Jain mentioned that the Supreme Court too had upheld the credibility of the EVMs. Moreover, he recalled that the EC had invited all political parties in 2017 to prove that the voting machines can be tampered with. 

READ full story here - Bihar Elections: EC Rubbishes Opposition's 'EVM Hacking' Charge, Recalls SC's Validation 

Pappu Yadav trailing from Madhepura; nail-biting fight between JDU's Nikhil Mandal and RJD' Chandra Shekhar

Election Commission website says that the BJP is leading in 76 seats and the JDU in 50. RJD is leading in 63 seats, the Congress in 18. AIMIM making inroads in 2 constituencies - Kochadhaman and Amour
 

Party wise lead as per Election Commission of India:
 

Congress' poll debutant Luv Sinha - son of actor-turned-politician Shatrughan Sinha faces a formidable battle with four-time sitting BJP MLA Nitin Nabin. Other candidates in the fray are The Plurals Party chief Pushpam Priya, independent candidate and Oxford University academician Manish Barriarr. The Bankipur assembly which comes within the Patna Sahib Lok Sabha constituency, has over 25 percent upper caste Kayastha voters - making it a BJP stronghold. In 2015, Nabin defeated Kumar Ashish from the Congress party with a margin of around 39,000 votes.

Plurals party chief Pushpam Priya Choudhary who had declared herself CM candidate in March this year is trailing from both Bankipur and Bisfi seats

RJD has fielded Shatrughan Mandal from Sikti assembly constituency, situated in Araria district, whereas sitting MLA Vijay Mandal will defend the seat for BJP. The seat is one of the 20 constituencies where BJP and RJD are in a direct contest. In 2015, Vijay Mandal had defeated Suman by 8,106 votes. Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Forbesganj (Araria district) on the last day of his election campaigning enlisted the works of Nitish led government. However, the seat has a large presence of Yadav and Muslim voters - vote bank of the RJD. 

BJP's Awadesh Narayan Singh says, "There is no meaning of exit poll. NDA will form govt under Nitish Kumar."

Sarairanjan: RJD's Arbind Kumar Sahni leading against Sitting MLA Vijay Kumar Choudhary (JDU)

Sitting MLA Vijay Kumar Choudhary - who is the current Speaker of the assembly and a close confidant of CM Nitish is contesting from the Sarairanjan seat in Samastipur district as a JDU candidate. Choudhary is pitted against Arvind Kumar Sahni of the RJD. Choudhary is a five-term MLA from Sarairanjan and it remains to be seen if the party will retain the seat after numerous camapign trails of RJD's Tejashwi Yadav in the district.

Madhepura: Nikhil Anand of JDU leading against JAP chief Pappu Yadav 

Stitching an alliance - Progressive Democratic Alliance (PDA) - with Chandrashekhar Azad's Azad Samaj Party, MK Faizi's Social Democratic Party and Bahujan Mukti Party - former Madhepura MP and Jan Adhikar Party (JAP) head Pappu Yadav has presented himself as the CM candidate in this year's election. He is contesting from Madhepura constituency against JDU's Nikhil Mandal and RJS's Chandrasekhar. Infamous for being accused in the 1998 CPI(M) leader Ajit Sarkar’s murder case, Pappu Yadav who has now been acquitted is looking to make a comeback in Bihar's political scenario and has been visible on the ground during Bihar floods. Previously, Yadav had also contested on RJD ticket from Madhepura.  In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, he was third in position and his wife Ranjeet Ranjan who is in Congress lost Supaul seat from where she was a three-time MP.

Bihariganj: JDU's Niranjan Kumar Mehta leading against Sharad Yadav's daughter Subhashini
 

Sharad Yadav's daughter - Subhashini Raj Rao - who joined the Congress party just ahead of polls, is contesting from Bihariganj and is pitted against against two times JD(U) MLA Niranjan Mehta, Lok Janshakti Party candidate Vijay Kumar Singh and Prabhash Kumar of led Janadhikar Party (JAP). Though the seat is the tested turf of Madhepura, her father lost the two previous Lok Sabha polls from here. However, the Rao is banking on her father's popularity as the election posters in the constituency introduces her as Subhashini ‘Sharad Yadav’.

Saharsa: BJP's Alok Ranjan leading against don-turned-politician Anand Mohan Singh's wife Lovely Anand

No party in this year's poll have shied away from fielding musclemen. From Saharsa, don-turned-politician Anand Mohan Singh's wife is contesting on a RJD ticket. She is pitted against BJP's Alok Ranjan Jha who won the seat in 2010. In 2005, Sanjeev Kumar Jha from BJP had defeated RJD's Shankar Prasad Tekriwal. However, in 2015, RJD stalwart Arun Kumar Yadav won by a margin of over 39,000 votes. Prime Miniter Modi wrapped up his Bihar election rally in Saharsa and came down heavily on RJD and opposers of 'Bharat mata ki jai' and 'jai shri ram'.

Out of 25, till now 5 rounds of counting has been completed in Bihar and 50 lakh votes have been counted. Here are the trends as per ECI: 
 

As per EC trends,

Chattisgarh, Haryana: Congress leading in lone seat

Gujarat: BJP leading in 7 seats, Congress in 1 seat

Jharkhand: BJP leads in 1 seat, Congress in 1 seat

Karnataka: BJP leads in 2 seats

Madhya Pradesh: BJP leads in 17 seats, Congress in 9 seats, BSP in 2 seats

Manipur: BJP has won 1 seat, leading in 3 seats, Independent leading in 1 seat

Nagaland: Ind leads in 1 seat

BJD: BJD leads in 2 seats

Telangana: BJP leads in 1 seat

UP: BJP leads in 5 seats, Ind leads in 1 seat, SP leads in 1 seat

With 241 of 243 seats leads in, BJP seen leading in 70 seats, RJD in 60 seats while JDU leads in 53 seats

VIP chief Mukesh Sahani is leading from Simri Bakhtiarpur seat in the Bihar assembly polls

• BJP is leading on 61 seats 
• JDU leading on 51 seats 
• RJD is leading on 61 seats
• Congress is leading on 20 seats
• Left parties leading on 16 seats 
• LJP leading on 5 seats
• Vikassheel Insaan Party leading on 6 seats 

Watch all LIVE updates here:  

Begusarai: BJP's Kundan Kumar leading against sitting Congress MLA Amita Bhushan

While CPI leader Kanhaiya Kumar unsuccessfully contested for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls from this constituency, the main battle this election is between sitting Congress MLA Amita Bhushan and the BJP’s Kundan Singh. In 2015, Bhushan defeated Singh by a margin of 16,531 votes, while CPM candidate Rajendra Prasad Singh secured 5,593 votes to finish in third place. 

Govindganj: BJP's Sunil Mani Tiwari leading against LJP's sitting MLA Raju Tiwari

 Inspite of Chirag Paswan's promise to not contest against BJP, LJP's sitting MLA Raju Tiwari will face a triangular re-election battle with Congress' Brajesh Pandey and BJP's Sunil Mani Tiwari. Apart from Govindganj, Paswan has fielded LJP candidates against BJP in 4 other seats. These include 2 sitting MLAs- Lalganj's Raj Kumar & Govindganj's Raju Tiwari - who is also LJP state parliamentary board president. BJP eyes to win this seat - which it has not held since 2010.

Jhanjharpur: BJP's Nitish Mishra leading against sitting RJD MLA Gulab Yadav

A tight contest will be witnessed in this Madhubani district constituency between sitting RJD MLA Gulab Yadav and  BJP’s Nitish Mishra. While Yadav had defeated Mishra in 2015, he is the son of 3-time Bihar CM Jagannath Mishra and the Vice-President of BJP Bihar. Jhanjharpur- a Hindu-dominated constituency comprises of 13.8% SC population.

Patnasahib: Congress' Pravin Singh leading against sitting BJP cabinet minister Nand Kishore Yadav

Sitting BJP cabinet minister Nand Kishore Yadav eyes a seventh consecutive term. In 2015, he had won with a slim margin by garnering 88,108 votes, compared to RJD's  Santosh Mehta who garnered 85,316 votes. Yadav has held the seat since 1995.

Raghopur: Tejashwi Yadav leading

Mahagathbandhan's CM face Tejashwi Yadav faces  BJP's Satish Kumar, who had defeated Rabri Devi in 2010 state election and LJP's Rakesh Roshan.  As per census data, 1.30 lakh Yadavs form the bulk of the voters, the constituency has a significant presence of upper-caste Rajputs, whose electorate size is estimated at around 40,000 followed by Muslims at 22,000 and Paswans at 18,000. In 2015, then 25-year-old Tejashwi defeated BJP's Kumar when the BJP had gone solo. While it has been a Lalu Yadav bastion in 1995, 2000, 2005 - Tejashwi has campaigned only once in Raghopur in 2020, unlike his competitors who have been canvassing extensively.

Hasanpur: Tej Pratap Yadav trailing  

Tej Pratap who had contested from Mahua in 2015, shifted to "safe" seat of Hasanpur, after rumours that his estranged wife Aishwariya Rai would contest on an NDA ticket at Mahua. In  Hasanpur, Tej Pratap is pitted against sitting JDU MLA  Raj Kumar Rai, who has been holding the seat since 2010. This Yadav-dominated assembly segment from Samastipur district has seen extensive rallies by Tej Pratap with visuals of him playing cricket, riding a tractor in a field, playing the flute, and eating 'litti-Chokha', appearing on social media. Yadavs constitute nearly 65,000 of the total voters, while the Muslim electorate numbers 25,000. Forward castes' count is around 20,000 while Paswans' strength is around 18,000, Kushwahas (16,000) and Extremely Backward Castes (13,000) are said to constitute the remaining.

 

BJP's Nitin Nabin leading from Bankipur against Plurals' Pushpam Priya & Congress' Luv Sinha

Congress' poll debutant Luv Sinha - son of actor-turned-politician Shatrughan Sinha faces a formidable battle with four-time sitting BJP MLA Nitin Nabin. Other candidates in the fray are The Plurals Party chief Pushpam Priya, independent candidate and Oxford University academician Manish Barriarr. The Bankipur assembly which comes within the Patna Sahib Lok Sabha constituency, has over 25 percent upper caste Kayastha voters - making it a BJP stronghold. In 2015, Nabin defeated Kumar Ashish from the Congress party with a margin of around 39,000 votes.

HAM president and former Bihar chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi trailing behind Uday Narain Choudhary of RJD by 1,340 votes in Imamganj seat. (PTI)

• BJP leading on Narpatganj seat 
• JD(U) leading on Raniganj seat
• Congress leading on Forbesganj seat
• JD(U) leading on Araria seat
• RJD leading on Jokihat seat
• RJD leading on Sikti seat
• AIMIM leading on Thakurganj seat
• Congress leading on Kishanganj seat
• RJD leading on Kochadhaman seat
• Congress leading on Amour seat
• AIMIM leading on Baisi seat
• LJP leading on Kasba seat
• BJP leading on Banmankhi seat
• CPI leading on Rupauli seat
• JD(U) leading on Dhamdaha seat
• BJP leading on Purnia seat
• BJP leading on Katihar seat
• Congress leading on Kadwa seat
• CPI(ML)(L) leading on Balrampur seat
• BJP leading on Pranpur seat
• Congress leading on Manihari seat
• JD(U) leading on Barari seat
• BJP leading on Korha seat

(as per Jan Ki Baat) 

No chance of speaking to LJP: BJP's state chief Sanjay Jaiswal 

JAP chief Pappu Yadav trailing from bastion Madhepura.

Stitching an alliance - Progressive Democratic Alliance (PDA) - with Chandrashekhar Azad's Azad Samaj Party, MK Faizi's Social Democratic Party and Bahujan Mukti Party - former Madhepura MP and Jan Adhikar Party (JAP) head Pappu Yadav has presented himself as the CM candidate in this year's election. He is contesting from Madhepura constituency against JDU's Nikhil Mandal and RJS's Chandrasekhar. Infamous for being accused in the 1998 CPI(M) leader Ajit Sarkar’s murder case, Pappu Yadav who has now been acquitted is looking to make a comeback in Bihar's political scenario and has been visible on the ground during Bihar floods. Previously, Yadav had also contested on RJD ticket from Madhepura.  In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, he was third in position and his wife Ranjeet Ranjan who is in Congress lost Supaul seat from where she was a three-time MP.

JDU's Raj Kumar Ray is leading against Tej Pratap Yadav from Hasanpur seat
 

Tej Pratap Yadav who won the 2015 state elections from Mahua has shifted to "safe" seat of Hasanpur assembly segment, after rumours that his estranged wife Aishwariya Rai would contest from there, after his father-in-law Chandrika Rai quit RJD and joined JDU. Even if now it is clear that they are not contesting from Mahua, Tej Pratap's shift is crucial as Mahua is located near the Parsa assembly segment, a bastion of his wife Aishwarya Rai's father Chandrika Roy's family.

In Hasanpur, Tej Pratap is pitted against a formidable sitting legislator from JD(U) Raj Kumar Rai, who is holding the seat since 2010. Hasanpur seat - Yadav dominated - is located in the Samastipur district of Bihar but comes under the Khagaria Lok Sabha constituency from where LJP's Choudhary Mehboob Ali Kaiser is the second consecutive term MP. However, Chirag Paswan has not fielded any candidate on the seat which sources have said is to help Tej Partap. There are a total of eight candidates vying for the seat.

Shailesh Kumar of JDU leading from Jamalpur

Shailesh Kumar, the Bihar Rural Works Minister will be vying to win the Jamalpur seat for the third time in a row. He had defeated LJP's Himanshu Kunvar by a margin of 15,476 votes in the previous state election. This time, he is pitted against Mahagatbandhan's Ajay Kumar Singh who is contesting on a Congress ticket. The other key candidates are Durgesh Kumar Singh of LJP and Subodh Tanti of BSP.

BJP's Dr Sambit Patra claims 'things will solidify only past noon', even as Mahagathbandhan and NDA are locked in a neck-to-neck battle with the Tejashwi-led alliance leading as per latest trends.
Trends as per ECI:

• BJP is leading on 31 seats
• JDU leading on 24 seats
• RJD is leading on 34 seats
• Cong is leading on 12 seats
• Left parties leading on 7 seats
• LJP leading on 3 seats
• AIMIM leading on 1 seat

As per Election Commission of India: 

• BJP is leading on 31 seats, 
• JDU leading on 24 seats 
• RJD is leading on 34 seats
• Congress is leading on 12 seats
• Left parties leading on 7 seats 
• LJP leading on 3 seats
• Vikassheel Insaan Party leading on 5 seats 
• AIMIM leading on one seat

As per ECI, Asaduddin Owaisi's All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) leading in one seat
 

As per the trends by ECI, 

• BJP is leading on 21 seats, 
• JDU leading on 12 seats 
• RJD is leading on 13 seats
• Congress is leading on 11 seats
• Left parties leading on 5 seats 
   

Mahagathbandhan leading on 111 seats compared to NDA's 97, as per latest trends. RJD leading on 72 seats BJP leading on 59 seats JDU leading on 32 seats Congress leading on 25 seats Left leading on 15 seats VIP leading on 6 seats
 

As per Jan Ki Baat, RJD's Uday Narain Choudhary leads from Imamganj against former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi. 

Former Bihar Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi of the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) is again contesting from the Imamganj constituency. JD(U)'s Uday Narain Choudhary had won this seat 4 times before losing to Manjhi in the 2015 election by 29,408 votes. While Choudhary is contesting on an RJD ticket this time, it is pertinent to note that RJD has not won Imamganj since 2000. The other main candidates are Jitendra Kumar Paswan of RLSP and LJP's Shobha Sinha. 

BJP's Nupur Sharma says "Anti-incumbency is a natural phenomenon, every party has to face it, it is too early to say anything." Watch LIVE coverage here: 

BJP's Prem Kumar leads in Gaya Town, as per early trends of ECI. The Gaya Town constituency will see a face-off between BJP's Prem Kumar and Akhauri Onkar Nath of the Congress party. In the 2015 Bihar Assembly polls, Kumar won the seat comfortably against Congress' Priya Ranjan. At present, he is also in charge of the Agriculture and Animal and Fisheries Resources portfolios in the NDA government. Randhir Kumar Keshri of the RLSP is another key contender for this seat.

Bypoll Results: Bharatiya Janata Party takes lead on five out of the 28 Madhya Pradesh Assembly seats, as per Election Commission trends

'Our NDA alliance is strong,' says JDU spokesperson Javed Iqbal Ansari; BJP's spokesperson Sudesh Verma also #LIVE as early trends show Mahagathbandhan leading on 102 seats versus NDA's 90. 
Numbers till now as per trends: 

NDA pulls back a few leads, brings Mahagathbandhan's current leads below 100 seats, as per early trends.

• RJD leading on 64 seats
• BJP leading on 48 seats
• JDU leading on 33 seats
• Congress leading on 21 seats 

As per Jan Ki Baat, LJP's Rajendra Prasad Singh leads from Dinara, Jai Kumar Singh JD(U) and RJD's Vijay Kumar Mandal trailing 

In Dinara, sitting Bihar Science and Technology Minister Jai Kumar Singh is pitted against Vijay Kumar Mandal of RJD. However, LJP's candidate Rajendra Prasad Singh can play a crucial role in deciding the fortunes of the JD(U) candidate because he was the runner-up in the 2015 election with over 62,000 votes.

As a BJP candidate, he lost to the Minister by a very thin margin of over 2,500 votes. As the seat remained with JD(U) as per the NDA's seat-sharing formula, Rajendra Prasad Singh switched over to LJP. Additionally, the RLSP has fielded Rajesh Singh. 

Mahataghbandhan leading on 98 seats as compared to NDA's 88, as per early trends. All updates here: 
 

Mohd. Zama Khan of BSP leading in Chainpur. Other candidates are Brij Kishor Bind of BJP and Prakash Kumar Singh of Congress

Another stronghold of BJP, Chainpur is a rural Assembly seat that has been represented by BJP's Brij Kishor Bind. The Bihar Mines and Geology Minister who has been an MLA from this constituency since 2009 was fielded by BJP once again. BSP's Mohammad Zama Khan had caused a major upset in the 2015 polls as Bind managed to scrape through by just 671 votes. Khan contested as a BSP candidate while Congress chose Prakash Kumar Singh. The last occasion on which Congress won this seat was in 1985. 

In Banka, Javed Iqbal Ansari (RJD) is leading against BJP's Ram Narayan Mandal

Situated at the southeast end of Bihar, the Banka constituency witnessed the victory of BJP's Ram Narayan Mandal in the 2015 Assembly election defeating RJD's Zafrul Hoda by 3730 votes. BJP has once again nominated Mandal, who is serving as the Revenue and Land Reforms Minister in the Bihar Cabinet, from this seat. In this election, RJD has fielded Javed Iqbal Ansari, former Minister and MLA from this constituency. Besides this, Upendra Kushwaha-led Rashtriya Lok Samta Party has given the ticket to Kaushal Kumar Singh. 

As per ECI, BJP is leading on 8 seats, JDU and RJD is leading in 3 seats, Congress, BSP and VIP leading on one seat each
 

BJP's Naval Kishore Yadav says 'it's how democracy goes - the numbers move up and down', denies any effect of LJP's Chirag Paswan on the vote share of NDA. 
 

BJP's Sanjay Saraogi leading from Darbhanga seat
 

Mahagathbandhan again moves ahead as per early trends; NDA leading in 70 seats; RJD leading from Madhubani 
 

Dinara: Vijay Kumar Mandal (RJD) is leading against Jai Kumar Singh (JDU) 

In Dinara, sitting Bihar Science and Technology Minister Jai Kumar Singh is pitted against Vijay Kumar Mandal of RJD. However, LJP's candidate Rajendra Prasad Singh can play a crucial role in deciding the fortunes of the JD(U) candidate because he was the runner-up in the 2015 election with over 62,000 votes. As a BJP candidate, he lost to the Minister by a very thin margin of over 2,500 votes. As the seat remained with JD(U) as per the NDA's seat-sharing formula, Rajendra Prasad Singh switched over to LJP. Additionally, the RLSP has fielded Rajesh Singh. 

BJP's Shreyasi Singh is leading from Jamui seat

Mahagathbandhan with 36 leads and NDA with 35 in early trends from the Bihar Election Results
 

Manoj Tiwari says: "BJP is forming government in Bihar under NDA and Nitish Kumar. This is 15 years versus 15 years fight.People have once again trusted Nitish Kumar - Sushan Babu.

Vote counting has begun, and the first trends are here:

In Bihar assembly out of 243 seats, Mahagathbandhan is ahead on 5 seats and NDA is leading on 5 seats. LJP is leading on one seat. 

Vote counting has begun, and the first trends are about to come in. Incumbent CM Nitish Kumar seeks 5th term while Tejashwi Yadav seeks his maiden term. 

For the purpose of successfully completing the counting work for the Bihar Legislative General Election-2020, Purnea District Election Officer and the Superintendent of Police jointly inspected the counting centers 

Ahead of counting, JDU's Sanjay Singh says that NDA will form the government in Bihar. Counting of votes for 243 Bihar Assembly seats to begin at 8 am today. Bihar voted in three phases on October 28, November 3 and 7.

Bihar's Chief Electoral Officer HR Srinivas revealed the arrangements for the counting of votes for the state Assembly polls scheduled to take place on November 10. He mentioned that the counting centres had been increased to 55 spread across 38 districts of the state for ensuring social distancing. Also, not more than 7 counting tables shall be allowed in each of the 414 counting halls. The counting centres will be disinfected before, during and after the counting process.

Bihar's Chief Electoral Officer HR Srinivas remarked, "There is a significant increase in the number of polling stations. In fact, the number of polling stations has gone up almost by 45%. So, tomorrow, the counting process will be a bit longer than it used to be. You will get authentic reports from the ECI website." 

BJP's Manoj Tiwari exudes confidence in NDA victory. "I am confident that once again Bihar will choose NDA and progress. Those putting up posters and hoardings will realise it when the results come in.

Bihar Congress in-charge Avinash Pandey ahead of counting of votes - "Mahagathbandhan has projected a very good alternative for the people of Bihar and people are trusting it. People of Bihar will give a chance to  Congress and MGB surely. Neither BJP nor Nitish ji could buy the Congress MLAs in any condition. No elected MGB MLA will defect."

The biggest election held amid the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic for the 243-seat Bihar assembly will be decided on November 10. Incumbent CM Nitish Kumar, who seeks a fourth consecutive term, faces a formidable battle from three coalitions and Chirag Paswan's LJP - RJD-Congress-Left's 'Mahagathbandhan', the RLSP-BSP-AIMIM- SJDD-SBSP's 'Grand Democratic Secular Front' and the JAP-ASP-SDP-BMP's 'Progressive Democratic Alliance'.  Bihar polls were held in three phases on October 28, November 3 and November 7. Counting will begin at 8:00 AM

Counting amid COVID

EC has announced that counting centres had been increased to 55,  spread across 38 districts of the state for ensuring social distancing. Also, not more than 7 counting tables shall be allowed in each of the 414 counting halls. The counting centres will be disinfected before, during and after the counting process.

EC  mentioned that there will be three-tier security for all the counting centres which includes the involvement of the Central paramilitary forces, the Bihar military police and the district armed police. In total, the Election Commission of India has provided 78 companies of the paramilitary forces for the security of the counting centres and for the maintenance of law and order. Moreover, victory rallies and processions have been banned after the imposition of Section 144. The 2020 election witnessed a voter turnout of 57.05% as against that of 56.66% in the 2015 polls.

Bihar Exit polls:

Seat share:

The Mahagathbandhan is projected to win 118-138 seats defeating the NDA which is projected to win 91-117 seats, LJP is projected to win 5-8 seats, while others are projected to win 3-6 seats. As per Republic Jan Ki Baat Exit Polls, the party-wise projections stand as such - RJD (79-91 seats), Congress (24-30 seats), Left (15-17 seats), BJP (60-75 seats), JDU (31-42 seats). While AIMIM is projected to win one seat, HAM and VIP are set to not win a single seat.

• NDA: 91 to 117 seats
• Mahagathbandhan: 118 to 138 seats
• LJP: 5 to 8 seats
• Others: 3 to 6 seats

Party-wise projections:

Mahagathbandhan:

• RJD: 79-91 seats
• Congress: 24-30 seats
• Left: 15-17 seats [CPI(ML)- 12-14 seats, CPI(M)- 2 seats, CPI- 1 seat]

NDA:

• BJP: 60-75 seats
• JDU: 31-42 seats
• VIP: 0
• HAM: 0

Remaining parties:

• LJP: 5-8 seats
• AIMIM: 1 seat
• Others: 3-6 seats

Vote Share:

With RJD set to be the single-largest party, the Mahagathbandhan is projected to win 40-43% of the votes, while NDA is projected to win 37-39% of the votes. LJP is projected to win 7-9% of the votes, while others are projected to win 8-11% of the votes. Furthermore, the partywise vote-share is projected as such - RJD (24-26%), Congress (8-9%), Left (6.5 -8%), BJP (18-20%), JDU (15 -16%), HAM (1.5-2%), VIP (2%)

NDA: 37-39%
Mahagathbandhan: 40-43%
LJP: 7-9%
Others:8-11%

Party-wise projections:

Mahagathbandhan:

• RJD: 24-26%
• Congress:  8-9%
• Left:  6.5-8%.  

NDA:

• BJP: 18-20%
• JDU: 15 -16%
• HAM: 1.5-2%
• VIP: 2%

2015 Bihar elections results:

Bucking the Modi wave across India, the Mahagathbandhan - then comprising of RJD, JDU and Congress won 178 seats - ushering Nitish Kumar's third term as CM. On the other hand, the NDA - comprising of BJP, LJP, RLSP and HAM won only 58 seats, while others won 7 seats. Furthermore, RJD emerged as the single-largest party winning 80 seats and 18.4% votes, followed by JDU winning 71 seats and 16.8% votes. Meanwhile forming the prime Opposition, BJP won 53 seats and 24.4% votes while Congress won 27 seats and 6.7% votes. This alliance did not last for more than two years, when Nitish Kumar demanded then-deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav's resignation after he was accused of corruption. On 27 July 2017, Nitish Kumar returned to his old ally - BJP and was sworn in as CM with BJP's Sushil Modi as his deputy CM.

The incumbent CM Nitish Kumar banking on his 15-year consecutive term, eyeing another term, has flaunted his '7 promises', listing the various schemes and development work carried out by his government in the past tenures. BJP, on the other hand, banking on the Modi cabinet's work in the past six years has promised free COVID-19 vaccine, 19 lakh jobs. On the other hand, the Mahagathbandhan has promised '10 lakh government jobs' in its CM hopeful - Tejashwi Yadav's first cabinet meeting, reopen Bihar's special status demand, annul Centre's farm laws and not levy 'false cases' on protestors.

During his rallies, CM Nitish Kumar has lashed out at Lalu Yadav's '15-year Jungle raj', often comparing the ineffective law and order situation, migration, lack of schools, roads, hospitals. He also dropped a bombshell on the last day of the campaign saying, 'This is my last election'. Tejashwi -who eyes his maiden term - stepping out of his father Lalu Yadav's shadow, has referred to Nitish Kumar as 'tired', lashing out at the CM's mismanagement of the COVID-19 situation, lack of empathy to stranded migrants due to lockdown, unemployment, lack of basic amenities. 

Chirag Paswan- who split from the NDA due to 'ideological differences with JDU' - has taken a bizarre pro-BJP, anti-Nitish stance. Paswan - who is still reeling from his father Ram Vilas Paswan's untimely death - has vowed to send 'corrupt' CM and his officials for alleged corruption in Kumar's 'Saath Nischay' scheme. He has also called himself 'Modi's Hanuman', often praising the PM. Congress- which has backed Tejashwi, has continued to attack PM Modi over the Centre's various decisions. The campaign was the first where ex-CM Lalu Yadav was absent in over 40 years, as he remains in Dumka jail, convicted in the fodder scam case.

The BJP is contesting on a seat-sharing formula of 121-122 seats with the JDU and Mukesh Sahni of Vikasheel Insaan party and Jitan Ram Manjhi of HAM(S), while LJP will contest solo. Mahagathbandhan comprising of Congress and three left parties have are contesting on seat-sharing formula of 144-70-29 seats respectively. The other two coalitions have projected Pappu Yadav and Upendra Kushwaha as its CM pick respectively countering Mahagathbandhan's pick - Tejashwi Yadav and NDA's pick - incumbent CM Nitish Kumar.

Unemployment: As per news agency ANI, a Periodic Labour Force Survey has stated that over 40 percent of Bihar youth are unable to find any source of income. A Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) report said Bihar's unemployment rate increased 31.2 percentage points in April 2020 — rising up to 46.6 percent. The CMIE survey said the unemployment rate in Bihar rose from 1.6 percent in April 2017 to its current rate. This has been the biggest issue that has been the focus of all parties.

Migration: After the nationwide lockdown was imposed due to the Coronavirus pandemic, migrant workers from Bihar had to return to their hometowns. While many returned to the cities, several workers have remained in Bihar, hoping the state government to provide them jobs - as promised by the government.

Tackling COVID-19 crisis: Incumbent CM Nitish Kumar and PM Modi has claimed that if the NDA government would not have taken timely measures, there would have been a huge number of deaths due to COVID. However, a visit to the Seemanchal (areas of Purnea, Kishanganj, Darbhanga) in September showed a gross violation of COVID-19 norms and poor condition of the COVID hospitals. Several top cabinet ministers too have been infected during poll rally, leading to heavy criticism of poor testing by Tejashwi Yadav. Contrary to criticism, Bihar Health Minister Mangal Pandey said that the recovery rate in the state has touched 94.24%, "which is the highest among all states of India".

Law and order: NDA leaders including PM Modi have slammed the Lalu Yadav family for looting the people of Bihar, during Lalu Yadav's term known as 'Jungle raj'. A public survey conducted by the Centre for the Studies of Developing Societies (CSDS) earlier this year, reads that 34 percent of the people surveyed believe that the police themselves violate the rules and regulations. A total of 77 percent hold an opinion that there is a nexus between the political leaders and police, leading to a low degree of trust of the public in the police department.

Imamganj

The key battleground for former CM and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) Jitan Ram Manjhi has locked horns with 4-time MLA and veteran Dalit leader RJD's Uday Narayan Choudhary. While Manjhi is the sitting MLA of Imamganj, Choudhary who flipped from JDU to RJD after losing to Manjhi in 2015 - has the home advantage having held the seat since 1990. The other main candidates are Jitendra Kumar Paswan of RLSP and LJP's Shobha Sinha. The assembly seat has a diverse mix of rich upper-caste Hindus and backward caste Muslims - witnessing several bloody riots from upper-caste fringe bodies like the Ranvir Sena, Lorik Sena, Bhoomi Sena, Kisan Sangh and others.

Projected winner: RJD (Uday Narayan Choudhary)

Dumraon

 A traditional bastion of Rajput and Brahmin - has been held by JDU for the past ten years. This time around JDU has fielded Anjum Ara to face CPI (ML) Ajit Kumar Kushwaha and Independent candidate Shivang Vijay Singh. The three-way battle is close as Shivang- a hotel management graduate  - is the grandson of the late Maharaja Kamal Singh, who represented Buxar Lok Sabha seat as an Independent for two consecutive terms 1952 and 1957.

Projected winner: CPI-ML (Ajit Kumar Kushwaha)

Brahampur

This Congress bastion which turned into an RJD stronghold in 1995 for Lalu Yadav is witnessing an interesting triangular battle between VIP's  Jayraj Chaudhary, sitting RJD MLA Shambhu Nath Singh Yadav, and LJP’s Hulas Pandey. While the BJP had turned the tide in 2010, with Dilmarni Devi defeating the RJD, this is the first time in four decades that BJP has not fielded any candidate - giving the seat to its ally VIP. The seat has been dominated by the Bhumihars, the Yadavs and brahmans, but has a sizeable backward caste population too.

Projected winner: RJD (Shambhu Nath Singh Yadav)

Raghopur

Mahagathbandhan's CM face Tejashwi Yadav faces  BJP's Satish Kumar, who had defeated Rabri Devi in 2010 state election and LJP's Rakesh Roshan.  As per census data, 1.30 lakh Yadavs form the bulk of the voters, the constituency has a significant presence of upper-caste Rajputs, whose electorate size is estimated at around 40,000 followed by Muslims at 22,000 and Paswans at 18,000. In 2015, then 25-year-old Tejashwi defeated BJP's Kumar when the BJP had gone solo. While it has been a Lalu Yadav bastion in 1995, 2000, 2005 - Tejashwi has campaigned only once in Raghopur in 2020, unlike his competitors who have been canvassing extensively.

Projected winner: RJD (Tejashwi Yadav)

Hasanpur

Tej Pratap who had contested from Mahua in 2015, shifted to "safe" seat of Hasanpur, after rumours that his estranged wife Aishwariya Rai would contest on an NDA ticket at Mahua. In  Hasanpur, Tej Pratap is pitted against sitting JDU MLA  Raj Kumar Rai, who has been holding the seat since 2010. This Yadav-dominated assembly segment from Samastipur district has seen extensive rallies by Tej Pratap with visuals of him playing cricket, riding a tractor in a field, playing the flute, and eating 'litti-Chokha', appearing on social media. Yadavs constitute nearly 65,000 of the total voters, while the Muslim electorate numbers 25,000. Forward castes' count is around 20,000 while Paswans' strength is around 18,000, Kushwahas (16,000) and Extremely Backward Castes (13,000) are said to constitute the remaining.

Projected winner: RJD (Tej Pratap Yadav)

Bankipur

Congress' poll debutant Luv Sinha - son of actor-turned-politician Shatrughan Sinha faces a formidable battle with four-time sitting BJP MLA Nitin Nabin. Other candidates in the fray are The Plurals Party chief Pushpam Priya, independent candidate and Oxford University academician Manish Barriarr. The Bankipur assembly which comes within the Patna Sahib Lok Sabha constituency, has over 25 percent upper caste Kayastha voters - making it a BJP stronghold. In 2015, Nabin defeated Kumar Ashish from the Congress party with a margin of around 39,000 votes.

Projected winner: BJP (Nitin Nabin)

Govindganj

Inspite of Chirag Paswan's promise to not contest against BJP, LJP's sitting MLA Raju Tiwari will face a triangular re-election battle with Congress' Brajesh Pandey and BJP's Sunil Mani Tiwari. Apart from Govindganj, Paswan has fielded LJP candidates against BJP in 4 other seats. These include 2 sitting MLAs- Lalganj's Raj Kumar & Govindganj's Raju Tiwari - who is also LJP state parliamentary board president. BJP eyes to win this seat - which it has not held since 2010.

Projected winner: BJP (Sunil Mani Tiwari)

Kishanganj

The constituency becomes crucial as it was the first seat where the AIMIM made an entry in Bihar after its candidate won the seat. As many as 20 candidates are in the fray but the fight is between AIMIM's Kamrul Hoda, Congress' Izrahul Hussain and BJP's Sweety Singh. A minority-dominated seat - in 2010 and 2015 Congress candidate Javed Azad had won in assembly polls  but his mother lost the seat in the Lok Sabha polls. Citizenship Amendment Act has been a poll campaign issue in the area with Muslim population, with the AIMIM lashing out at JDU for supporting it in the parliament.

Projected winner: Congress (Izrahul Hussain)

Sikti

 RJD has fielded Shatrughan Mandal from Sikti assembly constituency, situated in Araria district, whereas sitting MLA Vijay Mandal will defend the seat for BJP. The seat is one of the 20 constituencies where BJP and RJD are in a direct contest. In 2015, Vijay Mandal had defeated Suman by 8,106 votes. Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Forbesganj (Araria district) on the last day of his election campaigning enlisted the works of Nitish led government. However, the seat has a large presence of Yadav and Muslim voters - vote bank of the RJD.

Projected winner: BJP (Vijay Mandal)

Madhepura

Stitching an alliance - Progressive Democratic Alliance (PDA) - with Chandrashekhar Azad's Azad Samaj Party, MK Faizi's Social Democratic Party and Bahujan Mukti Party - former Madhepura MP and Jan Adhikar Party (JAP) head Pappu Yadav has presented himself as the CM candidate in this year's election. He is contesting from Madhepura constituency against JDU's Nikhil Mandal and RJD's Chandrasekhar. Infamous for being accused in the 1998 CPI(M) leader Ajit Sarkar’s murder case, Pappu Yadav who has now been acquitted is looking to make a comeback in Bihar's political scenario and has been visible on the ground during Bihar floods. Previously, Yadav had also contested on RJD ticket from Madhepura.  In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, he was third in position and his wife Ranjeet Ranjan who is in Congress lost Supaul seat from where she was a three-time MP.
 
Projected winner: RJD (Chandrasekhar)