Bihar Exit Poll projects RJD to win 5 of 10 key seats; ex-CM Manjhi, Luv Sinha could lose

With the Republic Jan Ki Baat Exit Polls predicting a victory for the Mahagathbandhan in the Bihar Assembly elections 2020, key contests in 10 seats projects RJD winning 5 and BJP winning 3, Congress winning 1 and CPI-ML winning 1 seat. As RJD is projected to emerge as the single-largest party, LJP is seen cutting JDU's votes in over 25 seats. Incumbent CM Nitish Kumar, who seeks a fourth consecutive term, faces a formidable battle from three coalitions and Chirag Paswan's LJP - RJD-Congress-Left's 'Mahagathbandhan', the RLSP-BSP-AIMIM- SJDD-SBSP's 'Grand Democratic Secular Front' and the JAP-ASP-SDP-BMP's 'Progressive Democratic Alliance'.

Key seats' projections:

Imamganj

The key battleground for former CM and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) Jitan Ram Manjhi has locked horns with 4-time MLA and veteran Dalit leader RJD's Uday Narayan Choudhary. While Manjhi is the sitting MLA of Imamganj, Choudhary who flipped from JDU to RJD after losing to Manjhi in 2015 - has the home advantage having held the seat since 1990. The other main candidates are Jitendra Kumar Paswan of RLSP and LJP's Shobha Sinha. The assembly seat has a diverse mix of rich upper-caste Hindus and backward caste Muslims - witnessing several bloody riots from upper-caste fringe bodies like the Ranvir Sena, Lorik Sena, Bhoomi Sena, Kisan Sangh and others.

Projected winner: RJD (Uday Narayan Choudhary)

Dumraon

 A traditional bastion of Rajput and Brahmin - has been held by JDU for the past ten years. This time around JDU has fielded Anjum Ara to face CPI (ML) Ajit Kumar Kushwaha and Independent candidate Shivang Vijay Singh. The three-way battle is close as Shivang- a hotel management graduate  - is the grandson of the late Maharaja Kamal Singh, who represented Buxar Lok Sabha seat as an Independent for two consecutive terms 1952 and 1957.

Projected winner: CPI-ML (Ajit Kumar Kushwaha)

Brahampur

This Congress bastion which turned into an RJD stronghold in 1995 for Lalu Yadav is witnessing an interesting triangular battle between VIP's  Jayraj Chaudhary, sitting RJD MLA Shambhu Nath Singh Yadav, and LJP’s Hulas Pandey. While the BJP had turned the tide in 2010, with Dilmarni Devi defeating the RJD, this is the first time in four decades that BJP has not fielded any candidate - giving the seat to its ally VIP. The seat has been dominated by the Bhumihars, the Yadavs and brahmans, but has a sizeable backward caste population too.

Projected winner: RJD (Shambhu Nath Singh Yadav)

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Raghopur

Mahagathbandhan's CM face Tejashwi Yadav faces  BJP's Satish Kumar, who had defeated Rabri Devi in 2010 state election and LJP's Rakesh Roshan.  As per census data, 1.30 lakh Yadavs form the bulk of the voters, the constituency has a significant presence of upper-caste Rajputs, whose electorate size is estimated at around 40,000 followed by Muslims at 22,000 and Paswans at 18,000. In 2015, then 25-year-old Tejashwi defeated BJP's Kumar when the BJP had gone solo. While it has been a Lalu Yadav bastion in 1995, 2000, 2005 - Tejashwi has campaigned only once in Raghopur in 2020, unlike his competitors who have been canvassing extensively.

Projected winner: RJD (Tejashwi Yadav)

Hasanpur

Tej Pratap who had contested from Mahua in 2015, shifted to "safe" seat of Hasanpur, after rumours that his estranged wife Aishwariya Rai would contest on an NDA ticket at Mahua. In  Hasanpur, Tej Pratap is pitted against sitting JDU MLA  Raj Kumar Rai, who has been holding the seat since 2010. This Yadav-dominated assembly segment from Samastipur district has seen extensive rallies by Tej Pratap with visuals of him playing cricket, riding a tractor in a field, playing the flute, and eating 'litti-Chokha', appearing on social media. Yadavs constitute nearly 65,000 of the total voters, while the Muslim electorate numbers 25,000. Forward castes' count is around 20,000 while Paswans' strength is around 18,000, Kushwahas (16,000) and Extremely Backward Castes (13,000) are said to constitute the remaining.

Projected winner: RJD (Tej Pratap Yadav)

Bankipur

Congress' poll debutant Luv Sinha - son of actor-turned-politician Shatrughan Sinha faces a formidable battle with four-time sitting BJP MLA Nitin Nabin. Other candidates in the fray are The Plurals Party chief Pushpam Priya, independent candidate and Oxford University academician Manish Barriarr. The Bankipur assembly which comes within the Patna Sahib Lok Sabha constituency, has over 25 percent upper caste Kayastha voters - making it a BJP stronghold. In 2015, Nabin defeated Kumar Ashish from the Congress party with a margin of around 39,000 votes.

Projected winner: BJP (Nitin Nabin)

Govindganj

Inspite of Chirag Paswan's promise to not contest against BJP, LJP's sitting MLA Raju Tiwari will face a triangular re-election battle with Congress' Brajesh Pandey and BJP's Sunil Mani Tiwari. Apart from Govindganj, Paswan has fielded LJP candidates against BJP in 4 other seats. These include 2 sitting MLAs- Lalganj's Raj Kumar & Govindganj's Raju Tiwari - who is also LJP state parliamentary board president. BJP eyes to win this seat - which it has not held since 2010.

Projected winner: BJP (Sunil Mani Tiwari)

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Kishanganj

The constituency becomes crucial as it was the first seat where the AIMIM made an entry in Bihar after its candidate won the seat. As many as 20 candidates are in the fray but the fight is between AIMIM's Kamrul Hoda, Congress' Izrahul Hussain and BJP's Sweety Singh. A minority-dominated seat - in 2010 and 2015 Congress candidate Javed Azad had won in assembly polls  but his mother lost the seat in the Lok Sabha polls. Citizenship Amendment Act has been a poll campaign issue in the area with Muslim population, with the AIMIM lashing out at JDU for supporting it in the parliament.

Projected winner: Congress (Izrahul Hussain)

Sikti

 RJD has fielded Shatrughan Mandal from Sikti assembly constituency, situated in Araria district, whereas sitting MLA Vijay Mandal will defend the seat for BJP. The seat is one of the 20 constituencies where BJP and RJD are in a direct contest. In 2015, Vijay Mandal had defeated Suman by 8,106 votes. Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Forbesganj (Araria district) on the last day of his election campaigning enlisted the works of Nitish led government. However, the seat has a large presence of Yadav and Muslim voters - vote bank of the RJD.

Projected winner: BJP (Vijay Mandal)

Madhepura

Stitching an alliance - Progressive Democratic Alliance (PDA) - with Chandrashekhar Azad's Azad Samaj Party, MK Faizi's Social Democratic Party and Bahujan Mukti Party - former Madhepura MP and Jan Adhikar Party (JAP) head Pappu Yadav has presented himself as the CM candidate in this year's election. He is contesting from Madhepura constituency against JDU's Nikhil Mandal and RJD's Chandrasekhar. Infamous for being accused in the 1998 CPI(M) leader Ajit Sarkar’s murder case, Pappu Yadav who has now been acquitted is looking to make a comeback in Bihar's political scenario and has been visible on the ground during Bihar floods. Previously, Yadav had also contested on RJD ticket from Madhepura.  In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, he was third in position and his wife Ranjeet Ranjan who is in Congress lost Supaul seat from where she was a three-time MP.
 
Projected winner: RJD (Chandrasekhar)

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Bihar Exit polls:

Seat share:

The Mahagathbandhan is projected to win 118-138 seats defeating the NDA which is projected to win 91-117 seats, LJP is projected to win 5-8 seats, while others are projected to win 3-6 seats. As per Republic Jan Ki Baat Exit Polls, the party-wise projections stand as such - RJD (79-91 seats), Congress (24-30 seats), Left (15-17 seats), BJP (60-75 seats), JDU (31-42 seats). While AIMIM is projected to win one seat, HAM and VIP are set to not win a single seat.

• NDA: 91 to 117 seats
• Mahagathbandhan: 118 to 138 seats
• LJP: 5 to 8 seats
• Others: 3 to 6 seats

Vote Share:

With RJD set to be the single-largest party, the Mahagathbandhan is projected to win 40-43% of the votes, while NDA is projected to win 37-39% of the votes. LJP is projected to win 7-9% of the votes, while others are projected to win 8-11% of the votes. Furthermore, the partywise vote-share is projected as such - RJD (24-26%), Congress (8-9%), Left (6.5 -8%), BJP (18-20%), JDU (15 -16%), HAM (1.5-2%), VIP (2%)

• NDA: 37-39%
• Mahagathbandhan: 40-43%
• LJP: 7-9%
• Others:8-11%

Bihar Exit Poll: Mahagathbandhan projected to form next govt; RJD single largest party

2015 Bihar elections results:

Bucking the Modi wave across India, the Mahagathbandhan - then comprising of RJD, JDU and Congress won 178 seats - ushering Nitish Kumar's third term as CM. On the other hand, the NDA - comprising of BJP, LJP, RLSP and HAM won only 58 seats, while others won 7 seats. Furthermore, RJD emerged as the single-largest party winning 80 seats and 18.4% votes, followed by JDU winning 71 seats and 16.8% votes. Meanwhile forming the prime Opposition, BJP won 53 seats and 24.4% votes while Congress won 27 seats and 6.7% votes. This alliance did not last for more than two years, when Nitish Kumar demanded then-deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav's resignation after he was accused of corruption. On 27 July 2017, Nitish Kumar returned to his old ally - BJP and was sworn in as CM with BJP's Sushil Modi as his deputy CM.