Exit Polls 2024: How Accurate The Predictions Were in 2014, 2019 Elections

As anticipation mounts for the release of exit poll predictions after 6.30 pm today, the accuracy of past electoral forecasts in India has sparked widespread interest. With the Election Commission's embargo period preceding the release, political observers and citizens eagerly await insights into potential outcomes. Let's take a look back at the exit poll predictions of 2019 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections and their accuracy. 

Exit Polls in 2019: Evaluating Predictive Accuracy

In the 2019 elections, exit polls painted a picture of the anticipated electoral landscape, with various agencies offering their projections. On average, these exit polls predicted the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to secure around 306 seats, with the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) trailing at approximately 120 seats. However, the actual results surpassed these predictions, with the NDA clinching a commanding 352 seats, including 303 seats for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the UPA securing 93 seats, with Congress at 52.

Below is a summary of the exit poll predictions for 2019 compared to the actual results:

Exit Polls in 2014: A Look Back at Predictive Trends

The 2014 elections witnessed a historic victory for the BJP-led NDA, albeit with a notable discrepancy between exit poll predictions and actual outcomes. While exit polls correctly indicated the NDA's ascent to power, they underestimated the magnitude of its victory. On average, exit polls predicted the NDA to secure 283 seats, with the UPA trailing at 105 seats. However, the actual results saw the NDA triumphant with 336 seats, including 282 seats for the BJP, while the UPA secured only 60 seats, with Congress at 44.

Here's a snapshot of exit poll predictions for 2014 compared to the actual results:

What to Expect in 2024?

The upcoming 2024 elections present a unique scenario, with the NDA facing off against a new opposition coalition, INDI Alliance. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set ambitious targets for the NDA, aiming for a resounding victory with over 370 seats, as part of his 'NDA 400 paar' vision.

Notably, the Congress has opted out of participating in exit poll debates on television channels, citing concerns about speculative narratives and sensationalism.

As the nation awaits the release of exit poll predictions for the 2024 elections, it remains to be seen how accurately they will reflect the evolving political landscape and the aspirations of the electorate.