Ghulam Nabi Azad's Solo Fight Decisive Factor in BJP's Prospects for Anantnag-Rajouri Seat

Jammu and Kashmir: Ghulam Nabi Azad's Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) is gearing up to contest all Lok Sabha seats in the upcoming 2024 elections. The spotlight is on the Anantnag-Rajouri seat, where strategic moves and ideological clashes are taking centre stage.

Azad's departure from the Congress in 2022 marked a significant political shift, leading to the formation of DPAP and injecting a new element of uncertainty into the impending polls. Renowned for prioritising development and peace, Azad accused rival parties of deception during a rally in Samba. He pledged transparency, announcing that DPAP's symbol would be revealed a month before voting, dispelling any association with the Congress's 'hand' symbol.

Political analysts are abuzz with speculation about DPAP's potential impact, particularly on Congress vote shares, especially in the influential Udhampur seat where Azad's influence is expected to be pivotal. Opinions, however, differ on the party's significance in Kashmir, with some foreseeing its impact primarily in the Jammu region.

The Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha seat has emerged as a focal point, considered a potential game-changer in the electoral landscape. The proposed Constitution (Jammu and Kashmir) Scheduled Tribes Order (Amendment) Bill, 2023, aiming to include Paharis in the ST category, adds complexity to the political dynamics.

BJP leaders believe that combining the ST bill with a focus on development and peace could strengthen their foothold in the region. However, the Muslim vote bank in Rajouri-Poonch is a key battleground, where DPAP's ability to sway sentiments could indirectly impact the BJP's standing in the Anantnag-Rajouri seat.

Manzoor Anjum, Editor-in-Chief of Daily Uqaab, stated, "If Azad fights alone, it could impact the BJP's prospects in the region. The Pahari reservation bill becomes a decisive factor, with the BJP actively courting the Pahari-speaking community in anticipation of its passage during the short budget session."

What is Anantnag-Rajouri seat important?

In the 18 assembly segments constituting the Anantnag-Rajouri seat, traditional competitors National Conference, Peoples Democratic Party, and Congress have vied for dominance on 12 to 15 segments, added Manzoor Anjum.

However, the fate of the Anantnag-Rajouri seat hinges on the potential passage of the reservation bill. Anjum suggests that without the bill, BJP's competitiveness diminishes, potentially allowing the National Conference to lead on three seats, with the BJP securing two in Jammu.

"For the BJP, winning Anantnag-Rajouri is not just about numerical gains but holds narrative significance in establishing their presence in Kashmir despite the events of the last five years," Anjum added.

Senior Congress leaders anticipated a fight in two Jammu seats, while the National Conference is confident in retaining its three wins. With Lok Sabha elections preceding the assembly polls, smaller regional parties like DPAP face challenges but wield the potential to influence the broader political narrative, Anjum stated.

In the 2019 elections, the Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha seat took centre stage, with the National Conference securing victory with 40,100 votes. Congress trailed with 33,500 votes, and PDP claimed the third position with 30,500 votes. Anticipating the elections, analysts also predict a rise in voter turnout in South Kashmir, intensifying political manoeuvring. The Anantnag-Rajouri seat remains a focal point, shaped by past outcomes, emerging alliances, and the evolving role of new entrants like DPAP on the political chessboard.