Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Why BJP has not maxed out in Hindi heartland states

The BJP's victory in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh indicates that the saffron party is a force to reckon with when it comes to the Hindi heartland states. Out of the three states, BJP's strong show in MP is truly striking. Even after Shivraj Singh Chauhan's 15-year long stint as the CM, the party managed to secure an overwhelming majority. Keeping anti-incumbency at bay, the party workers on the ground, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's tireless campaigning, helped BJP secure an easy win.

On the other hand, Congress was unable to tide over voter fatigue and anti-incumbency in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

Ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, has the BJP reached its pinnacle in the Hindi belt or is there room for expansion?

Now, the question arises, after this recent sweep, whether the BJP has maxed out in the Hindi heartland or not? If we take a deep dive into BJP's performance in the last Lok Sabha election, we see that the ruling party at the Centre has enough firepower to better its performance in the Hindi belt. If we are to assume that PM Modi's image has only gotten stronger since 2019, buoyed by the recent Assembly polls success, we can see that the party has enough room for expansion even where it has traditionally done well.

According to data from India Votes ,the total number of Lok Sabha seats in the Hindi Belt are 225. Compared to the 2014 general election, the BJP's seat share fell to 183 in 2019 from 190. The BJP can still better its count with the INDI alliance partners squabbling over seat-sharing. Additionally, the BJP's vote share in the Hindi heartland states was 53.3% in the last general election.

BJP's not-so-secret weapons for 2024: Ram Mandir and UCC

There are two narratives that the BJP can use to increase both its seat share and vote share in the Hindi heartland. These narratives can go a long way in consolidating Hindu votes.  Additionally, the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) can also be seen as a medium to drive Muslim women voters closer to the party. The biggest example is from the 2017 Assembly election polls in Uttar Pradesh where the party received a historic mandate. With PM Modi bringing up criminalising triple talaq in his rallies ahead of the polls, the party's seat share in Muslim dominant regions was no less than miraculous. PM Modi's strategic move was a hit among Muslim women voters. The party won from regions where it had no presence before. Now, with the UCC, promising to bring equal inheritance laws and adoption rights for Muslim women, this move can turn out to be a game-changer.

The Ram Mandir inauguration in Ayodhya is being seen as the party's other Brahmastra ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. The mega event is being seen as a narrative that can break caste lines across UP and Bihar. In UP, the BJP had lost 18 seats to the opposition back in 2019. In Bihar, the party will take on the combined might of RJD, JDU and Congress.  

Ripple effect of BJP's surprise CM picks across North

Interestingly, the BJPs CM picks for MP and Chhattisgarh indicate that the BJP aims at creating ripple effects across the Hindi belt. Choosing a CM from the Yadav community in MP, the BJP is strongly placed to challenge Akhilesh Yadav's votebank in UP and and that of Tejaswi's in Bihar. This can be seen as a potent tool to blunt the INDI alliance's caste-survey ploy.

With Mohan Yadav hailing from the OBC community, the move could possibly have some ripple effect across UP and Bihar, where Yadavs form a considerable votebank. On the other hand, choosing a tribal leader as CM in Vishnu Deo Sai is also seen a masterstroke in Chhattisgarh. For the first time in the history of the state, a tribal leader has been chosen at the top post. The Tribal community constitutes around a massive 30% population of Chhattisgarh. This can work wonders in the neighbouring Jharkhand, where the tribal population is around 26%. Not to forget the ripple effect this move can have in states like West Bengal, where the tribal population is almost 6% and Orissa, where the tribal population is around 22.84%. Last year, BJP's surprise move to nominate Draupadi Murmu from the tribal community as India's president further cements the party's massive outreach.