Lok Sabha Exit Polls 2024: BJP Set To Overtake TMC In West Bengal, Predicts P-Marq

West Bengal Lok Sabha Exit Polls 2024: In a huge setback to Mamata Banerjee, BJP is expected to better its 2019 performance in West Bengal with both pollsters projecting BJP to be the number one party in the state. While P-Marq made a conservative estimate of 22 seats for BJP, Matrize predicted the saffron party might touch 25 out of 42 seats.

In a first, BJP is set to cross TMC since the first time Mamata Banerjee came to power in West Bengal back in 2011, both in vote-share and in seats, ringing warning bells for the state-ruling party ahead of the 2026 Vidhan Sabha Elections.

BJP is set to turn the tables in South Bengal's Medinipur, the Adhikari stronghold, which has three seats as compared to last time. For the first time, the Adhikaris, who have been with the TMC till the last Lok Sabha elections, have joined BJP. This, in turn, has turned out to be the game-changer.

BJP's performance in West Bengal made headlines in 2019 Lok Sabha elections as the party surpassed all poll predictions and secured 18 out of 42 seats, gaining 16 seats. The BJP swept North Bengal and made huge gains in South Bengal. This time around, BJP is slated to do well in TMC fortresses like East Medinipur with the influential Adhikaris going over to BJP. According to our pollsters, the BJP votes are more concentrated towards the North, Central and the South India. 

BJP's Performance Set To Improve, Likely To Surpass TMC In Bengal: Matrize

Matrize has predicted that BJP's vote-share is slated to grow by more than 3 per cent to 43.8 per cent while the TMC's vote-share has gone down by more than 1 per cent. When translated into seats, BJP is projected to get anywhere between 20 to 25 seats while the TMC's tally is expected to come down to 16 to 20 seats. The Left and Congress have seen a decline of vote share and even the number of seats are set to decline from 2 to 0 to 1.
 

BJP Number 1 Party In Bengal, Predicts P-Marq

P-Marq has predicted 22 seats for BJP and 20 seats for TMC. P-Marq has predicted TMC's vote-share to be at 44 per cent while BJP's vote-share has been predicted at 42 per cent.