Madhya Pradesh Exit Poll Result 2023: BJP likely to form government

The polling for all 230 assembly constituencies in Madhya Pradesh took place in a single phase on November 17 and the votes will be counted on December 3, 2023. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress are the main contenders in the state apart from Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) who want to make their presence felt.

After three consecutive victories in Madhya Pradesh elections in 2003, 2008 and 2013, the BJP lost to Congress in 2018 but stormed back to power in March 2020 when the Kamal Nath-led government collapsed. 

In this election, the saffron party faces a significant challenge of overcoming the incumbency factor. On the other hand, Congress is raising the alleged corruption in the Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led government.

The key candidates in Madhya Pradesh are CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan from Budhni, senior Congress leader Kamal Nath from Chhinddwara, Union Minister Narendra Singh Tomar from Dimani, BJP's Kailash Vijayvargiya, and Congress' Jitu Patwari from Rau among others.

While Congress has declared veteran leader Kamal Nath as its CM candidate, the BJP has left the field wide open for chief ministerial aspirants. For a long time, CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan remained the face of the BJP. However, this time, in a change of strategy, the saffron party has fielded three Union Ministers and four Members of Parliament (MPs) in an attempt to blunt anti-incumbency against Chouhan.

Madhya Pradesh Exit Poll Results: Matrize predicts simple majority for BJP

A close battle is predicted between the BJP and Congress in Madhya Pradesh with the saffron party having a slight edge, according to Matrize's exit poll. The BJP is forecasted to get 118-130 seats, the Congress 97-107 seats and others 0-2 seats. The majority mark is 116 in the 230-member MP assembly.

The Matrize Exit Poll predicts that Congress will get 41.7 per cent vote share in Madhya Pradesh, including 40.2 per cent in the Chambal region, 42.8 per cent in Mahakaushal, 44.8 per cent in Malwa Tribal, 43.7 per cent in Malwa Uttar and 36.4 per cent in Vindhya region.

Gain/Loss in vote share

On the other hand, the BJP will get a total vote share of 43.4 per cent in the state, including 41.4 per cent in the Chambal region, 43.1 per cent in Mahakaushal, 43.3 per cent in Malwa Tribal, 48.4 per cent in Malwa Uttar and 39.7 per cent in Vindhya region.

MATRIZE exit poll methodology

MATRIZE has attempted to gauge voters' opinion in the exit poll. The samples in this survey have been collated by speaking to various people. Our team has collected samples from 678 seats in 5 states. We have collated 323800 samples from 5 states. 145710 women and 178090 have been part of the survey. Samples have been collected from November 7, 2023 to November 30, 2023. There could be +-3 difference in the results.

Disclaimer: The methodology is random stratified sampling using predominantly three techniques Field surveys, CATI, and IDIs with key people in districts and assembly constituencies. Pollsters then use a probabilistic model to determine the number of seats a party is going to win from the estimated vote share.