Madhya Pradesh Exit Poll Result 2023 LIVE Updates: BJP and Congress in close race

The voting for all 230 assembly constituencies in Madhya Pradesh took place on November 17 and the results will be declared on December 3, 2023. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress are the main contenders in the state apart from Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) who want to make their presence felt.

After three consecutive victories in Madhya Pradesh elections in 2003, 2008 and 2013, the BJP lost to Congress in 2018 but stormed back to power in March 2020 when the Kamal Nath-led government collapsed.

In this election, the saffron party faces a significant challenge of overcoming the incumbency factor. On the other hand, Congress is raising the alleged corruption in the Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led government.

The key candidates in Madhya Pradesh are CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan from Budhni, senior Congress leader Kamal Nath from Chhinddwara, Union Minister Narendra Singh Tomar from Dimani, BJP's Kailash Vijayvargiya, and Congress' Jitu Patwari from Rau among others.

While Congress has declared veteran leader Kamal Nath as its CM candidate, the BJP has left the field wide open for chief ministerial aspirants. For a long time, CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan remained the face of the BJP. However, this time, in a change of strategy, the saffron party has fielded three Union Ministers and four Members of Parliament (MPs) in an attempt to blunt anti-incumbency against Chouhan.

Madhya Pradesh Exit Poll Result 2023: BJP and Congress in close battle, P-Marq predicts 

P-Marq exit poll has predicted a neck-and-neck fight between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress in Madhya Pradesh. Both BJP and Congress are forecasted to win between 103 and 122 seats respectively. The other parties and independents may get 3 to 8 seats. Furthermore, the vote share of the BJP and Congress stands at 43.1 per cent. The other parties and independents might get 13.8 per cent vote share.

P-Marq exit poll methodology

The methodology is random stratified sampling using predominantly three techniques Field surveys, CATI, and IDIs with key people in districts and assembly constituencies. We then use a probabilistic model to determine the number of seats a party is going to win from the estimated vote share. The survey results have been adjusted in proportion to reflect the state and district population across age - groups, religion, gender and caste. The questions in the survey were designed to reflect the current scenario electorally and politically and to gauge the critical factors that might play a role in the voting preference of a voter. There is error margin of 3%.

Disclaimer: The methodology is random stratified sampling using predominantly three techniques Field surveys, CATI, and IDIs with key people in districts and assembly constituencies. Pollsters then use a probabilistic model to determine the number of seats a party is going to win from the estimated vote share.