Maharashtra exit poll: Congress projected to lose Shirpur after 35 yrs

As the electoral process for Maharashtra Assembly polls concluded on October 21, the predictions of Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat exit poll reckon a landslide victory for the saffron alliance of Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena.

Sitting MLA and BJP candidate Kashiram Vechan Pawara might have a slight edge over the Congress to retain the Shirpur seat. If this happens, Congress will lose its stronghold seat after 35 years. The party has fielded Ranjeet Bharatsingh Pawara. A total of seven candidates are in the fray in Shirpur including Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi's Motilal Damu Sonawane.

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Shirpur: Rural, reserved (ST) constituency

Shirpur seat is situated in the North Maharashtra region's Dhule district and is part of the Nandurbar Lok Sabha constituency. This is a rural, reserved (Scheduled Tribe) constituency with over 3.1 lakh eligible voters, of which 1.6 lakh are male and 1.5 lakh female. The seat is currently held by Kashiram Vechan Pawara, who was elected in 2014 on a Congress ticket by defeating the BJP candidate Jitendra Yuvraj Thakur. Shirpur constituency comprises of just the Shirpur taluka of Dhule.

2014 incumbent

Kashiram Vechan Pawara won by a margin of 25,201 votes (12.82%). Congress had a vote share of 49.4% in 2014. In that election, there were eight candidates in the fray and Shirpur registered a turnout of 66.4%.

Who is Kashiram Vechan Pawara?

Kashiram Vechan Pawara bagged his second consecutive win after registering a dominating victory in 2014 from Shirpur. He joined the BJP ahead of the 2019 Assembly elections.

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Mahayuti to gain, UPA to dawdle

The Mahayuti alliance is projected to secure seats in the range of 216 to 230 with incumbent BJP laying hold of a significant majority with 135 to 142 seats. This will be followed by ally Shiv Sena, who is predicted to secure 81 to 88 seats in Maharashtra. Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party is predicted to grab 30 to 35 seats. Meanwhile, Congress is estimated to contribute 20 to 24 seats to the UPA alliance.

Meanwhile, as per Jan ki Baat projections, AIMIM is likely to secure a sole seat in Mumbai's Byculla where Waris Pathan is seeking to retain his seat. Others are predicted to win eight to 12 seats in Maharashtra and Raj Thackeray's MNS is projected to be empty-handed. As per the predictions, BJP is like to secure 33% of vote share, followed by ally Shiv Sena with 24%. Sharad Pawar's NCP predicted to secure 15% vote share and Congress lags behind with 11%. While Others are predicted to win 10% of vote share, AIMIM to secure 2% and MNS left with only 1%.

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Seat share

• BJP - 135 to  142
• Shiv Sena- 81  to 88
• INC- 24 to 20
• NCP -35 to 30
• Others- 12 to 8
• MNS -  0
• AIMIM - 0 to 1

Vote share

• Bjp 33%
• Shiv Sena 24%
• INC 11%
• NCP 15%
• Independent-10%
• AIMIM- 2%
• MNS-1%
• Others-4%

The results for the Assembly elections will be announced by the Election Commission on October 24 (Thursday).

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