Jan Ki Baat Exit poll: NDA sweeps both states, betters 2014 tally

As the state Assembly polls in Maharashtra and Haryana conclude on Monday, it is predicted that the BJP and its allies are set to sweep both states, overcoming anti-incumbency, according to Republic TV - Jan Ki Baat Exit Poll. Both CMs Devendra Fadnavis and Manohar Lal Khattar are predicted to comfortably win a second term in their respective state assemblies. The BJP-Shiv Sena's 'Mahayuti' alliance faces the NCP-Congress' 'Maha-Agadhi' alliance for the 288-seat Assembly in Maharashtra. On the other hand, the BJP faces the Congress in the battle for the 90-seat Haryana state Assembly. The results will be announced on October 24.

READ | Maharashtra Exit Poll projects huge win for BJP-Sena; disaster for UPA

Maharashtra:

The BJP is projected to almost reach the halfway mark on its own winning 135-142 seats, while its saffron ally, Shiv Sena is projected to win 81-88 seats. Meanwhile, the Congress is projected to win only 20-24 seats while its ally NCP is projected to win 30-35 seats. The other Opposition parties comprising of VBA, AIMIM and other independents are projected to win only 8-12 seats while the Raj Thackeray-led MNS is projected to not win a single seat.

Seat share: 

• BJP - 135 to  142
• Shiv Sena- 81  to 88
• INC- 20 to 24
• NCP -30 to 35
• Others- 8 to 12
• MNS -  0

READ | Haryana Exit poll projection: BJP to win 2/3 seats, Vadra-Cong routed

Haryana:

On the other hand, the BJP is set to single-handedly sweep Haryana, with 2/3rd of the seats, awarding CM Manohar Lal Khattar a second term. While the BJP is projected to win 52-63 seats, the Congress is left far behind likely to win only 15-19 seats. Meanwhile, the JJP is projected to win 5-9 seats while others are projected to win 7-10 seats.

Seat Share:

• BJP: 52 to 63
• Congress: 15 to 19
• JJP: 5 to 9
• INLD: 0 to 1
• Others: 7 to 10

Key poll-factors in Maharashtra:

The biggest factor favouring the BJP is the successful passage of the Maratha Reservation which guaranteed 12% in educational institutions and government jobs, apart from the recently implemented reservation for the Economically Weaker Section. The recent abrogation Article 370 too has had a major impact on the polls with PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah including it in their poll campaigns. The Fadnavis has also pushed for major development schemes in the state, boosting manufacturing in the state. 

Apart from these factors, the impending Ram Mandir verdict, the recent Aarey protests, the fall of PMC bank and the ED probe into NCP leader Praful Patel's alleged D-gang links too have played a main factor for voters. Meanwhile, in Maharashtra, former Congress Mumbai chief Sanjay Nirupam's open revolt against Congress leader Milind Deora has created confusion. The recent spree of migration of senior Congress leaders like Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil, Narayan Rane and others to BJP has left the Opposition weak.

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Key poll-factors in Haryana:

The biggest disadvantage for Congress in the state is the recent resignation of former Haryana chief Ashok Tanwar amid reports of a tussle with former CM Bhupinder Hooda. Rahul Gandhi's sudden trip to Bangkok amid poll season too added to the confusion, to an already depleted Opposition. Matters did not help when senior leaders - Bhupinder Hooda, Ahmed Patel, and Ghulam Nabi Azad were caught on camera moaning that the party would barely win 10-12 seats.

On the other hand, Manohar Lal Khattar and PM Narendra Modi's pro-development politics have aided the BJP's chances. The push towards nationalism through abrogation of Article 370, implementation of NRC and other developmental schemes have helped the saffron party in the state. With strong support for the current Khattar government and a decimated Chautala clan, the BJP is set to win another term in Haryana.

READ | Haryana Elections: Here are 5 seats which could go down to the wire

Methodology:

R. Bharat-Jan Ki Baat Opinion Poll has used purposive sampling. It involves focused group discussion and face to face interviews done by field investigators with a visit to poll-bound states and constituencies. A sample set of almost 1,00,000 people was used to predict the exit polls.