Manipur opinion poll 2022: P MARQ predicts clean sweep for BJP with 31-37 seats

The north-eastern state of Manipur is set to conduct its assembly elections in two phases for the 60-member House. The first phase of the polls will be conducted on February 27 followed by the second phase on March 3. While the state is currently under BJP's rule with N Biren Singh as the Chief Minister, P-Marq is presenting the most studied, accurate, and on-point Opinion Poll about the current political scenario in the state.

Methodology of opinion poll

The predictions have been made after conducting a survey with a sample size of 4,250 of the population between January 9 to January 16. The methodology is random stratified sampling using predominantly three techniques Field surveys, CATI, and IDIs with key people in districts and assembly constituencies. We then use a probabilistic model to determine the number of seats a party is going to win from the estimated vote share with an error margin of just 3%. The survey results have been adjusted in proportion to reflect the state and district population across age groups, religion, gender, and caste. The questions in the survey were designed to reflect the current scenario electorally and politically and to gauge the critical factors that might play a role in this election.

Manipur Opinion Poll

The BJP is projected to stay ahead in the race as the poll shows BJP bagging the most 31-37 seats out of 60 seats followed by the Indian National Congress winning 13-19 seats. The National People’s Party (NPP) and the Naga People’s Front (NPF) are predicted to remain behind INC with 2-9 and 1-5 seats respectively. 

Who is the most preferred face as Manipur CM?

The current CM of the state Biren Singh was found to be the most preferred face for leading the state who is leading with 36.0% approval. Singh was followed by former CM and INC leader Okram Ibobi who received 17.0% of the approval. Yumnam Joykumar Singh and Gaikhengam were in third and fourth place with 11.0% and 10.0% respectively.

What is the biggest issue for Manipur citizens?

The poll revealed that unemployment and the unavailability of drinking water in the state are two of the major issues. 29% of respondents said that unemployment is the biggest issue in Manipur whereas unavailability of drinking water and bad roads were the second and third major concerns with 24% and 17% votes respectively. 

Rating of BJP's performance

22% of the respondents said that BJP's performance in the state has been excellent whereas 37% and 29% of respondents believed that the party's performance was in the good and average category respectively.

Citizens' biggest factor for voting

Improvement in law and order topped the voting by respondents with 28% whereas anti-incumbency and need for change drives 24% of the respondents towards casting their votes. 

Election results 2017

In the 2017 Manipur Assembly election, Congress emerged as the single-largest party by winning 28 seats in the 60-member House whereas BJP bagged 21 seats. Even as it harboured hopes of forming a government in the state again, BJP thwarted its plans by forging a post-poll alliance with the National People's Party, the Naga People's Front and LJP. Thus, the saffron party which had drawn a blank in the 2012 polls formed a government in Manipur for the first time with N Biren Singh taking oath as the Chief Minister on March 15, 2017.

Image: Republic World