Mizoram polls: BJP predicts fractured mandate, holds cards on alliance with MNF and ZPM

As Mizoram gears up for upcoming state Assembly elections on November 7, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) unveiled its list of 23 candidates, including the outgoing House Speaker and individuals who recently switched allegiances from the ruling Mizo National Front (MNF). The BJP, formerly a part of the MNF-led government under the leadership of Chief Minister Zoramthanga, has opted to contest the elections independently.

BJP's state president Vanlalhmuaka anticipated a divided mandate in the northeastern state and asserted the party's willingness to consider post-poll alliances. However, he also set a condition, ruling out any possibility of an alliance with the Congress party.

While predicting a fragmented majority, the BJP has hinted at its intent to play a role in the government formed after the Assembly poll results on December 3. Vanlalhmuaka stated, "No government can be formed without the participation of the BJP”.

Mizoram has three major political parties: MNF, Zoram People's Movement (ZPM), and the Congress. With the BJP ruling out an alliance with Congress, the potential post-poll coalition options are limited to MNF and ZPM. Here's a brief analysis of MNF and ZPM:

MNF vs ZPM

MNF (Mizo National Front)

Both MNF and ZPM have disclosed their candidate lists. MNF, a constituent of the NDA alliance, is contesting the Mizoram elections independently. Chief Minister Zoramthanga expressed confidence in his party's prospects, projecting that MNF could secure between 25-30 seats in the 40-seat Assembly. He also suggested that Congress might only secure one to two seats, or possibly none at all, while ZPM might win around 10 seats.

The MNF, led by Chief Minister Zoramthanga, holds an advantage due to its effective distribution of financial assistance through the state's flagship Socio-Economic Development Policy (SEDP). This accomplishment is likely to work in their favour during the elections. Additionally, the MNF has garnered praise for its adept handling of refugees and displaced individuals from Myanmar and Bangladesh, as well as for its role in assisting displaced people from Manipur. This experience could bolster their image. The ruling MNF is emphasizing Mizo sub-nationalism and fostering unity among the Zo ethnic tribes, a sentiment that may resonate with voters who hold these values dear.

ZPM (Zoram People's Movement)

Although Zoramthanga has predicted 10 seats for ZPM and acknowledged it as the "biggest challenger," he also recognized the newly formed party as a significant competitor. ZPM, which was established just before the 2018 elections, became the main Opposition in the state, replacing the Congress. This achievement was particularly commendable, given that previous election battles in the state were typically between Congress and MNF.

ZPM has emerged as a formidable player in urban areas, indicating its growing influence since the 2018 assembly polls. The party's sweeping victory in the Lunglei Municipal polls earlier this year, where it secured 49% of the votes, established it as a significant political force. In contrast, the MNF received 29.4% of the vote share, making ZPM a dominant player in urban centres.

The decline of the Congress could create opportunities for ZPM to secure additional votes. The shift of Congress voters to ZPM was evident in 2018 when Congress's share of votes significantly decreased. Coupled with anti-incumbency sentiments, ZPM could pose a formidable challenge in the upcoming elections.

(With inputs from agencies)