National Approval Ratings: In Madhya Pradesh, despite a victory in Assembly elections, UPA is predicted to face a massive loss to NDA

With the dates for the all-important Lok Sabha polls now announced, the various political parties and the citizens of India have complete clarity on exactly when the country will once again undertake the largest exercise in democracy anywhere in the world.

To present a snapshot projection of where the various parties stand at the moment in different states, Republic TV and CVoter have published the National Approval Ratings which present a complete picture of what would happen if elections are held today.

Despite losing the Hindi heartland in assembly elections 2018, according to predictions the BJP-led NDA government is single-handedly sweeping the state with a seat share of 24 out of 29, thus leaving 5 for UPA. 

In terms of vote share, the Modi wave is holding strong given the fact that Yashwant is projecting a 49.3% vote share for the BJP and 39% vote share for the Congress -- which means that in 5 years of Modi rule, BJPs vote share is projected to fall by just 4.8% but still remain a projected 10.3% higher than that of the Congress. Indicating that the state election sweep of the Congress has not propelled sentiment in its favour this year around

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Seat-share

UPA- 5
NDA- 24

Vote-share

UPA- 39%
NDA-49.3%
Others-11.7%

As per projections, after Uttar Pradesh, Akhilesh Yadav's SP and Mayawati's BSP extended alliance in Madhya Pradesh to fight all 29 seats does not seem to have an impact in the state, with a clear projected victory for NDA. 

The National Approval Ratings projections for Madhya Pradesh has been more or less consistent for the months of December, January and now March, except for UPA who has seen a downfall to 39%, and NDA gaining from 48.4% to 49.3%. 

In 2014, BJP won 26 seats in the state while Congress faced a defeat with just 3

The months preceding the latest National Approval Ratings have witnessed a number of massive developments that may have a big impact on the on-ground sentiment as the phase-wise voting approaches. 

A parallel CVoter survey has already indicated that citizens' satisfaction with the performance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been on an upswing since the Feb 1 budget where a number of significant announcements were made - especially for farmers and for middle-class taxpayers. This satisfaction index the skyrocketed following India's air-strike against Pakistani terror bases across the LoC. Simultaneously, the satisfaction index of Congress president Rahul Gandhi has spiralled downward in the same time-frame.

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