Gadar 2 vs Jailer: Box office battle seems tough, gripped with uncertainty

Indian cinema is all pumped up as two of the biggest movies for August 2023, 'Gadar 2', and ‘Jailer’ are gearing up for release, and will stand as rivals. 

But the initial numbers that both the movies will garner is not fully certain, because while 'Gadar 2' is likely to have a higher revenue with its opening expected to be somewhere around Rs. 25 crore, 'Jailer' is also expected to open to the same amount.

Trade analyst Karan Taurani of Elara Capital, talking about initial numbers, he said: "It is a bit of a tough question, but ‘Gadar 2’ is likely to have a higher weekend opening which I estimate to be around Rs. 25 crores, though for 'Jailer' I also expect the same."

"But for 'Gadar 2' it will also all depend on its reception by audiences and the content it will present and whether it will be good or not, and that as of now seems highly unlikely."

Asking about the initial mass bookings, as 'Jailer' has a higher booking due to having over 900,000 bookings in advance, as opposed to 'OMG 2' with 45,000 tickets and 'Gadar 2' which has over 300,000 bookings according to  BookMyShow , he said: “The bookings are a good indicator, and yes they are higher for ‘Jailer’ and it’s a Tamil film yes?"

"But the thing is that prices in Southern cinemas for tickets are capped as opposed to the Northern belt where prices are higher and there is a wider audience as opposed to regional cinemas."

Whether Rajinikanth's face will make a difference, given the Tamil superstar is a pan-Indian face, he said: "It is true that Rajinikanth is pan-Indian, but also it is not about the question of him being pan-Indian or not."

"Revenue estimates are more based around the belt, and 'Jailer' is going to be a big success, but it’s going to be more so on the Southern side particularly in Tamil Nadu where over 80 per cent of its revenue will come from."

"Other cities in South India like Bangalore, Trivandrum or cities in Telugu speaking areas too will give a very good boost to the numbers. In the North, I do believe ‘Jailer’ will have a good following, but as of now I estimate 'Gadar 2' to have a slightly higher revenue."

Asked Taurani about lifetime gross of both the movies, he said: " expect 'Gadar 2' to go around Rs. 120-180 crore, whereas for 'Jailer' I'm expecting a similar range between Rs. 120-150 crore, meaning 'Gadar 2' will have a nominally higher gross."

"But as I said before, these numbers can change because for 'Gadar 2' its reputation and content are big factors in determining box office numbers, and so far the content isn’t looking all that good."

'Gadar 2' so far is expected to surpass 'Jailer', at least in the opening weekend. But these numbers are merely an estimate as the chances of  'Gadar 2' earning less are ironically also higher because its numbers now depend entirely on its reputation and how it will be received by audiences, whereas for 'Jailer' a positive reception seems much higher.

People want different content these days and with the growing popularity of Southern cinema in the Hindi belt, while the numbers seem slightly in favour of 'Gadar 2', this really could prove anyone's game. 

Another factor which may put 'Gadar 2' in the lead is its more patriotic fervour, as opposed to 'Jailer' which is more of an action-thriller.

Both the films have very big stars and are releasing on nearly the same date as ‘Jailer’ will hit theatres on August 10, 'OMG 2' and 'Gadar 2' will hit theatres on August 11.