Adipurush box office prediction: Will Prabhas, Kriti Sanon starrer break all records?

Why you're reading this: Adipurush has become the center of attention due to its grandiose scale and the star-studded cast. This modern-day adaptation of the epic Ramayana has been generating immense excitement among audiences since its announcement before the pandemic. Now, the long-awaited day of its release has finally arrived. Directed by Om Raut, the film features Prabhas in the role of Raghava, Kriti Sanon as Janaki and Saif Ali Khan as Lankesh.

3 things you need to know

• Adipurush has reportedly been made on a budget of ₹500 crore.
• Advance bookings for the film are indicating massive collection on the opening day.
• Hindi and Telugu states are expected to drive the film's business in India. 

Adipurush BO: Will Prabhas starrer shatter all records?

Given the budget, the star-studded cast and the grand scale Adipurush has been mounted on, it is expected to get a great start at the box office. Entertainment industry tracker Ramesh Bala and film trade analyst Sumit Kadel spoke to Republic Media Network's Mugdha Kapoor at length, touching upon the expecations from the film and more. However, there is a difference in opinion on how much the initial collections will be.

"Adipurush opening day collection will probably be in the range of ₹40-₹50 crore net in India," Bala said. On the contrary, Kadel asserted that the movie is going to register the biggest opening for a Bollywood film till now, leaving Pathaan behind. He said that the stardom of Prabhas in the Telugu states will only drive the film's business further. 

(In Adipurush, Prabhas stars as Raghava, a character inspired by Lord Ram | Image: Prabhas/Twitter)

"Adipurush opening day collection will be ₹25-30 crore in Hindi. In the Southern states, it is expected to rake in ₹50-60 crore, mainly from the Telugu states. The day one collections in India are going to be ₹80-100 crore net in all languages," Kadel said. 

Though Kadel and Bala disagree on the initial box office collections of the film, they do agree that word of mouth will be a major factor in the film's success. Bala said that somewhere around ₹120 crore is plausible in the first weekend. While Kadel is of the opinion that the advance bookings look promising. “If the audience likes Adipurush, it could earn ₹200-300 crore in the first weekend in India in all languages,” he added.  

The South India factor

Prabhas' popularity in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh is unprecedented. Thus, the South Indian market will be a huge factor in the film's lifetime collections. "Prabhas is a big star and he will certainly draw the audience. North Indian states can contribute as much as 50 percent to the total collections. In the South, 80 percent is expected to come in from Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. There is not much buzz in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. In Karnataka, the buzz is relatively higher than Tamil Nadu and Kerala but lesser than the Telugu states. Overall, 50 percent of earnings will come from Hindi states, 40 percent from the Telugu states and another 10 percent from the other South markets," Bala said. 

(Prabhas promotes Adipurush at an event in Tirupati | Image: Prabhas Fanclub/Twitter)

Adding to this, Kadel said, "Adipurush is going to leave Pathaan behind by a huge margin because the Telugu states are going to be a big contributor. ₹40-45 crore are expected to come in from this region alone."

Prabhas is a driving factor in the film's business, but is that all?

Adipurush has been marketed as a 'Prabhas film'. But Kadel and Bala maintain that the film viewing experience will be another aspect that the audience will look forward to, despite the unending allure of Ramayana tale. "It is a test of Om Raut as a director. Prabhas' responsibility is to guarantee a good weekend business. People have seen Ramayana many times. It will depend on how it has been packaged for the audience. Content has to be strong. If the collections drop due to bad reviews, the blame will fall on the writer, the VFX team and others," Kadel shared. 

(The cast of Adipurush with director Om Raut | Image: Om Raut/Instagram) 

Bala stated that Kriti Sanon and the director will also be contributing factors to the film's success or failure. "Whether it is an animation movie or live-action is still not known. Even one day can make or break for any film at the box office. Certainly, Prabhas is a big star and will draw the audience but Kriti has her own fans. Om Raut delivered a big hit in the Hindi market with Tanhaji and all these factors will play a major role at the box office," he said.

Sentiments to drive the audience to the cinema halls

Indeed, Adipurush serves as a retelling of the timeless Indian epic, the Ramayana. The Ramayana has been a significant part of Indian culture for centuries and has been adapted and retold through various mediums, particularly on the small screen. 

With Adipurush, Kadel said, audiences will get what they have been waiting for years-- a big screen adaptation of the Hindu epic. "Ramayana will work on the sentiments of the audience and not on VFX. People want to see the Ramayana. After the pandemic, sentiments are pulling the audience to the screens. Religious films are working at the box office and it is going to be the case with Adipurush. There is a huge demand for this genre of films. People have been waiting to see Ramayana on the big screen for many years now," he opined. 

(Adipurush character poster featuring Prabhas as Raghava | Image: Prabhas/Twitter)

Echoing similar sentiments Bala added, "The audience will be made up of people who are religious, family-oriented and want to take their kids along to the movies, even though they might have seen Ramayana on TV before. People would want to show their kids the culture of India."

Adipurush success: A revival of mythological genre?

While Adipurush is set to release on Friday, the future of other films in the mythological genre is still not certain. Two Mahabharata adaptations and another Ramayana film, with director Nitesh Tiwari, are rumoured to be in the making for a while now, but nothing is confirmed. Will the success of Adipurush bolster the confidence of makers in investing in such big-budget projects? Bala and Kadel agree that it will. "If Adipurush works, Mahabharat will be made very soon. But the budget for such films is a huge problem. If Adipurush works at the box office and recovers the budget it is made on, it will instill confidence that making such a film with a pan-India star is possible," Kadel said.

"Yes, Adipurush success will revive the genre," Bala concluded.

(Devasheesh Pandey has also contributed to the story)