COVID-19 cases in Europe could reach '4 to 5 times' higher by January 2021, warns WHO

As the European nations are recording record spikes in daily cases of COVID-19, the World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned that the daily death toll on the continent could reach “four to five times higher” by January 2021 than that in April 2020. Most countries that had managed to flatten the curve of COVID-19 spread through stringent lockdowns in spring had started relaxing the restrictions. However, since this week, nations including Germany, France and the Czech Republic have begun reporting record case numbers.

In the wake of the resurgence of COVID-19 cases, WHO Europe director Hans Kluge in media briefing explained ‘epidemiological situation’ on the continent. He noted that the fall/winter surge has continued to unfold in Europe with “exponential increases in daily cases and matching percentage increases in death rates.”

WHO Europe director said, “The evolving epidemiological situation in Europe raises great concern: daily numbers of cases are up, hospital admissions are up, COVID-19 is now the fifth leading cause of death and the bar of 1000 deaths per day has now been reached.”

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Calling it a “great concern”, Kluge said that “daily cases are up” along with hospital admissions. Moreover, the WHO Europe director noted that COVID-19 is “now the fifth leading cause of death and the bar of 1,000 deaths per day has now reached.” He said that Europe has registered the highest weekly incidence of COVID-19 since the pandemic began earlier this year as nearly 700,000 cases were reported. 

Hans Kluge said, “Projections from reliable epidemiological models are not optimistic. These models indicate that prolonged relaxing policies could propel – by January 2021 – daily mortality at levels 4 to 5 times higher than what we recorded in April.”

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COVID-19 surge in Europe surpasses US

As per reports, the new cases in Europe’s five most-affected nations, that also make up a similar population as the United States, was at least 42 per cent more than that the increase in the US in the week to October 13. Johns Hopkins University’s seven-day rolling average of the new cases of COVID-19 in the US stood at 49,542 on October 13. However,  in France, the UK, Russia, Spain and the Netherlands, the daily average rise on the same day stood at 70,158. The population of these five European nations is reportedly 343 million, while the US population is 331 million.

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