Haryana Exit poll projection: BJP to win 2/3 seats, Vadra-Cong routed

As the assembly polls of Haryana has been concluded on Monday, October 21, the Republic Jan Ki Baat Exit Polls predicts a second term for Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar. The poll predicts a massive 52 to 63 seats for the saffron party, while Congress is projected to get 15 to 19 seats. While the newly formed JPP is projected to win 5 to 9 seats, INLD is projected to come down to 0 to 1 seats in the state.   

2014 assembly polls 

BJP has bettered its position compared to 2014 assembly polls. In 2014 assembly polls when the BJP came to power for the first time in the state, it won 47 seats. The INLD won 19 seats while the Congress won 15 seats. The BJP had a voting percentage of 33.3% and Congress, 20.6%. 

The projection suggests that BJP in this year's assembly polls will do better than that of its 2014 performance, with almost 17 seat gain, as per projection. The projection on the vote share also shows an around 20% increase from 33.3% in the last election to a predicted 56% now. While the projection for the Congress appears to be dismissal with the Congress projected to get almost the same seat share and the vote share like the last election. The INLD split seems to have cost the party which is looking a projected 18 seat fall from its 19 seat tally of 2014 to 1 seat now and a fall in vote share too. The newly formed JJP is projected to see a 25.6% vote share which is higher than the vote share of the INLD last election.

Haryana Seat Share prediction 
 

• BJP: 52 to 63
• Congress: 15 to 19
• JJP: 5 to 9
• INLD: 0 to 1
• Others: 7 to 10

READ: Haryana Elections: Here are 5 seats which could go down to the wire

Haryana Vote Share prediction 

• BJP: 56%
• Congress: 18%
• JJP: 10%
• INLD: 7%
• Others: 9%
• Independent: 6%
• Akali: 6%

READ: Haryana Opinion poll: BJP projected to win big, Congress struggles

Lok Sabha elections 2019

The saffron party clean swept the state winning all 10 seats in the Lok Sabha polls. The vote share in the state The pattern in Haryana has been those leading in the General Election, stake claim to power in the elections that follow to the state assembly. The Jan Ki Baat’s projections reiterate the same trend indicating the pro-BJP sentiment. 

READ: Congress will be in 3rd or 4th position in Haryana polls: Ashok Tanwar

Big names and contest to watch for on October 24

1. Narnaund: Haryana Finance Minister and incumbent Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) Captain Abhimanyu will face off against Congress’ Baljeet Sihag, Jassi Petwar from INLD and JJP’s Ram Kumar Gautam. The seat has a rather interesting history prior to 2014. For, Ram Gautam has won elections as a BJP as well as Congress candidate in 2005 and 2009 respectively. In the 2014 election, Abhimanyu won against Ram Singh Mor of the INLD.  
    
2. Ellenabad: Promising to be yet another close contest for INLD’s Abhay Singh Chautala, Ellenabad will witness other candidates such as Bharat Singh Beniwal from Congress and Pawan Beniwal from the BJP. Chautala first won from this constituency 10 years ago by contesting the bypoll. Subsequently, he defeated BJP’s Pawan Beniwal in 2014. The INLD has not lost this seat since 2000. 
    
3. Dadri:  This will be ace wrestler Babita Phogat’s first electoral battle. The Dadri seat is defined by its narrow margins and the tendency to throw up surprise winners. For instance, independent candidate Satpal emerged victorious in 2009 with a margin of only 145 votes. INLD won the seat in the 2014 Assembly election. Phogat will square off against Nitin Jangu from INLD, Major Nirpender Sangwan from Congress. According to the Republic-Jan Ki Baat poll, she is slightly trailing behind. 
    
4. Kaithal: Congress communications in-charge Randeep Surjewala suffered a humiliating defeat in the Jind by-elections held earlier this year. Despite this setback, the incumbent MLA from Kaithal is seeking re-election. While Surjewala was earlier an MLA in Narwana, he switched to this constituency in 2014. Anil Kumar from INLD and Leela Ram from the BJP are his principal opponents. He too is facing the possibility of losing the election. 
    
5. Mahendragarh: Senior BJP leader and minister Ram Bilas Sharma has been locked in a one-to-one battle with Congress’ Rao Dan Singh since 2000. While the latter defeated Sharma in three consecutive elections, the margin of victory decreased with every successive victory. Finally, Sharma won in the 2014 election by securing 83,724 votes against Singh who received 49,233 votes. The other key candidate is INLD’s Rajendra Singh.  

WATCH: Haryana polls: Fmr CM BS Hooda blatantly skips queue, pushes elderly

Methodology:

R. Bharat-Jan Ki Baat Opinion Poll has used purposive sampling. It involves focused group discussion and face to face interviews done by field investigators with a visit to poll-bound states and constituencies.