Jharkhand Assembly Poll Results: JMM-Cong-RJD set to form next govt, BJP concedes defeat

The results for the 81-seat Jharkhand State Assembly will be announced on Monday. Polling was held in 5 phases on November 30, December 7, 12, 16, 20. The BJP which had a fallout with its ally All Jharkhand Students Union and Lok Janshakti Party, faces the formidable combination of Congress, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and other parties like LJP, AJSU, JVM. CM Raghubar Das who is eyeing his second consecutive term faces a tough challenge from former CM and JMM chief Hemant Soren.

Polling in 5 phases:

The Jharkhand assembly elections recorded the overall voter turnout of 65.17% compared to the 66.53% recorded in the 2014 elections. For the first time since Jharkhand's creation 19 years ago, Assembly elections to all the 81 seats passed off without violence by Maoists. Of the 5,389 polling stations in the state, 396 in Naxal-affected areas were marked "critical" and 208 as "sensitive". 1,088 male candidates, 27  women nominees, and one third-gender candidate were in the fray for the 81 seats.

Poll scenario

The BJP and its allies AJSU, LJP who were initially touted to jointly contests the polls had a fallout leading to both parties fielding their own candidates against their saffron ally. While there is a possibility of AJSU and LJP joining a post-poll alliance with the BJP. The incumbent party faces a tough fight in the following key constituencies - Jamshedpur East, Chakradharpur, Litipara,  Baghmara, and Jharia. PM Modi, Amit Shah, Yogi Adityanath, Priyanka Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi have all campaigned actively throughout the state in all five phases.

Key battles

CM Raghubar Das, eyeing a sixth consecutive win from Jamshedpur East faces BJP rebel and former minister Saryu Rai, who is contesting as an independent candidate. Rai was instrumental in exposing former Bihar CM Lalu Yadav in the fodder scam and exposed the multi-crore  Iron Ore Mines allotment scam under former Jharkhand CM Madhu Koda. Meanwhile,  BJP state president Laxman Gilua who lost the Lok Sabha polls in May 2019 inspite of the larger mandate the BJP won, faces a tough battle against JMM incumbent Shashihbushan Samad for Chakradharpur. Another interesting battle is between incumbent BJP MLA Sanjeev Singh's wife and her widowed sister-in-law Purnima Singh who is fighting on a Congress ticket for the Jharia seat. The incumbent MLA Sanjeev Singh is being tried for killing his political rival and cousin Niraj Singh.

The last Jharkhand state polls in 2014 BJP sweep the elections after the first Modi wave winning 37 seats. Along with an alliance with AJSU and some defected JVM MLAs, the BJP successfully formed the government ushering Jharkhand's first non-tribal CM. The JMM which had held the government in the state managed to win only 19 seats, while the Congress was left with only 6 seats.

Key poll factors:

The main factor which is working against BJP CM Raghubar Das is anti-incumbency. Das, who previously served under the Soren government in 2009, is the first non-tribal chief minister of the state and hence is not the tribal majority's pick for CM. Moreover, the recent poll debacle in Haryana and Maharashtra may not favour the incumbent BJP.

Another factor that has angered the tribals is the attempted amendment to the Chhotanagpur and Santhal Pargana tenancy Acts in 2016. While governor Droupadi Murmu had turned down the amendments  in2017 after widespread protests from tribal groups, the  Tribal Advisory Committee (TAC) headed by Raghubar Das had formed mulled over gathering 'public opinion' on amending key points of these acts. This has led to widespread distrust against the government in the community.

Under the Chhotanagpur Tenancy (CNT) Act, only a tribal can purchase or sell land to another tribal belonging to the same thana area with permission from the DC concerned. The CNT Act is not applicable in Santhal Pargana districts of Dumka, Godda, Pakur, Sahebganj, Jamtara and Deoghar, where the Santhal Pargana Tenancy (SPT) Act is in force. The SPT Act does not allow any type of land transfer.

Moreover, the Pathalgadi movement which is strong in these tribal areas is a major challenge faced by the BJP government since 2017. Under this movement, activists have put up stone tablets in 200 districts of Jharkhand explaining the provisions in the Indian Constitution relating to tribal autonomy as interpreted by Adivasis. The state government has cracked down heavily against the movement, booking sedition cases against almost 10,000 Adivasis, as per reports.

The last key factor is also the current slowdown in the coal industry. Jharkhand which amounts to 40% of the total mineral resources in India has not translated in the rise in jobs in the area. The dipping economy and the scam-hit coal industry has been a worry for the residents, which is unfavourable to the BJP.
 

Incumbent CM Raghubar Das leading from Jamshedpur East as per early trends by Jan Ki Baat. 

As per initial trends, Hemant Soren, the working president of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, leads from both his seats.

As per early trends, BJP Rebel Saryu Rai is trailing and incumbent CM is leading. CM Raghubar Das, eyeing a sixth consecutive win from Jamshedpur East faces BJP rebel and former minister Saryu Rai, who is contesting as an independent candidate. Rai was instrumental in exposing former Bihar CM Lalu Yadav in the fodder scam and exposed the multi-crore  Iron Ore Mines allotment scam under former Jharkhand CM Madhu Koda.  

As per All India Radio News, AJSUP trailing with 2 setas, BJP leading in 14 seats and JMM leading in 18 seats. 

JVM-P chief Babulal Marandi leads as per early trends. As per sources, BJP top leaders are in touch with Babulal Marandi. Marandi, a former chief minister and president of JVM-P, had earlier claimed that the opposition parties did not show any interest when he tried to talk to them soon after the Lok Sabha elections. He had also ruled out a possibility of a post-poll alliance with the BJP. 

Poster with 'Jharkhand ki pukar hai gathbandhan ki sarkar hai. Hemant ab ki baar hai' (Jharkhand wants an alliance, they want Hemant this time) seen in Ranchi.

Speaking to Republic TV, JVM-P chief Babulal Marandi said that he keeps talking to the leaders of other parties. His remark comes as he leads as per early trends. Earlier, sources said that BJP top leaders are in touch with Babulal Marandi. Marandi, a former chief minister and president of JVM-P, had earlier claimed that the opposition parties did not show any interest when he tried to talk to them soon after the Lok Sabha elections. He had also ruled out a possibility of a post-poll alliance with the BJP. While speaking to Republic TV, he also said: "This is just the beginning, let the results come in then we will decide."

As per early trends, Gathbandhan comprising of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Congress and RJD is leading in 42 seats.

The BJP and its allies AJSU, LJP who were initially touted to jointly contests the polls had a fallout leading to both parties fielding their own candidates against their saffron ally. While there is a possibility of AJSU and LJP joining a post-poll alliance with the BJP. The incumbent party faces a tough fight in the following key constituencies - Jamshedpur East, Chakradharpur, Litipara,  Baghmara, and Jharia. PM Modi, Amit Shah, Yogi Adityanath, Priyanka Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi have all campaigned actively throughout the state in all five phases.

In Santhal Pargana region, BJP is leading in Barhait seat. The Barhait assembly is located in the Sahebganj district of Jharkhand and falls under the Rajmahal(ST) parliamentary constituency. In the 2014 Jharkhand assembly election, Hemant Soren of the JMM won from the Rajmahal(ST) assembly seat. The Barhait assembly seat voted on December 20 in the 5th phase of the Jharkhand assembly elections 2019. In the 2019 elections, there were a total of 1,95,391 eligible electors, of which 98,555 were male, 96,835 female and 1 voters of the third gender.

As per the trends, BJP leads in 38 seats, JMM Gathbandhan is leading in 34 seats, AJSU, JVM trailing. This despite the fact that the main factor which is working against BJP CM Raghubar Das is anti-incumbency. Das, who previously served under the Soren government in 2009, is the first non-tribal chief minister of the state and hence is not the tribal majority's pick for CM. Moreover, the recent poll debacle in Haryana and Maharashtra may not favour the incumbent BJP.

As per Election Commission, BJP is leading in 11 seats,  JMM+ is leading in 15 seats, and AJSU is trailing with only one seat in the 27 seats status that is known. 

As per EC, among the 46 status known, BJP is leading in 17 seats, JMM+ is leading in 23 seats (JMM = 15, RJD = 3, Congress = 7).  

Former CM and JVM(P) chief Babulal Marandi leading from Dhanwar seat. Speaking to Republic TV, he said: "I am talking to my party cadre. I will take time and see what happens before taking any decision." Earlier, he hinted that he is open for an alliance with BJP. Sources also said that BJP can make Marandi the CM in case it does not reach the majority mark in the state.

RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav says that Hemant Soren will be the CM and the JMM+ will win the election. However, as per EC, Hemant Soren is trailing from Dumka and Lois Marandi is leading. He is leading from Barhait with 6698 seats. 

As per EC, BJP is leading in 27 seats, JMM leading in 25 seats, Congress on 13 seats, RJD on 5 seats, and Babulal Marandi's JVM on 4 seats.

Jharkhand Congress leader Pranav Jha while speaking to media said that the party is open to explore alliances with other non-NDA parties to form a government in the State. When asked about the same, Jha replied, "Yes, our leadership in Jharkhand they are in touch. They have been in touch in the past and we'll see if it's required then we will all come together and make sure to give a stable and credible government to the people of Jharkhand." Jha, however, didn't state in particular which party or parties will be tapped.

Speaking to media, CM Raghubar Das said: "I will not comment on post-poll alliance because other phases of counting is left. I will do a PC in Ranchi in the evening after the result. Right now I just want to say that we (BJP) will form the government."

Jan Ki Baat founder Pradeep Bhandari says that there were three factors that played an important role in Jharkhand election. 

1. Anti-incumbency against the CM Raghubar Das. Currently, he is leading from Jamshedpur East with 10829 seats against BJP Rebel Saryu Rai. 
2. BJP was poor in ticket distribution.
3. Congress and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) alliance was successful in transferring of vote.
    

As the official trend from the Election Commission shows that BJP is trailing in Jharkhand, sources said that the saffron party has reached out to AJSU. Sources also said that it has offered the deputy CM post to AJSU. Both the parties had a fallout ahead of elections in the state and fielded their individual candidates. Currently, BJP is leading on 29 seats, and JASU on 3 seats while JMM+ is leading on as many as 41 seats. 

After 6th round of counting, BJP Rebel Saryu Rai is leading against CM Raghubar Das from Jamshedpur east.

JMM chief Hemant Soren addresses media as he leads from both Dumka and Barhait seats. He has thanked Gathbandhan partners - RJD and Congress. He has said that the mandate is for a new Jharkhand. Earlier, he sought blessings from his father and former CM Shibu Soren. 

Speaking to media as he trails from Jamshedpur East against BJP rebel Saryu Rai, CM Raghubar Das said that he welcomes the decision and is still hopeful to form the governmnet. He added that he will speak to media once final results are declared. 

Here are the trends for the key constituencies:

• Jamshedpur East: The most contentious seat held by CM Raghubar Das is being challenged by BJP rebel and former minister Saryu Rai, who is contesting as an independent candidate. Congress has fielded party spokesperson Gaurav Vallabh from the constituency. Das, who is eyeing his 6th consecutive win faces a tough challenge from his own former cabinet minister. Rai was instrumental in exposing former Bihar CM Lalu Yadav in the fodder scam and exposed the multi-crore  Iron Ore Mines allotment scam under former Jharkhand CM Madhu Koda. This constituency has been held by Raghubar Das since 1995.
  
  At the time of publishing, Saryu Rai is leading from the constituency by a margin of 9000 votes. 
   
• Chakradharpur: The constituency which is reserved for Scheduled tribes is a mineral-rich constituency. BJP state president Laxman Gilua who lost the Lok Sabha polls in May 2019 in spite of the larger mandate the BJP won, faces a tough battle against JMM incumbent  Shashihbushan Samad and AJSU in the fray. Moreover, Gilua is unpopular as he tried to amend the Chhotanagpur and Santhal Pargana tenancy Acts and is against the Pathalgadi issue.
  
  At the time of publishing, Sukhram Oraon of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha is leading with 43472 seats.
   
• Litipara: A JMM bastion in the Santhal Pargana region witnessed a poll battle between incumbent JMM MLA Simon Marandi's son Dinesh William and BJP's Daniyal Kisku. JMM has registered three consecutive wins in 2005, 2009 and 2014 from this seat. The seat which falls under the Pakur district and is home to the Santhal and Paharia tribes - making JMM the automatic favourite.
  
  At the time of publishing, Dinesh William Marandi of JMM is leading with 56938 votes. 
   
• Baghmara: Incumbent BJP MLA Dulu Mahto is the favoured candidate in spite of being convicted by a local court and sentenced to 18 months of jail for helping a person in fleeing from jail. He faces Congress' Jaleshwar Mahato who had won the constituency on a JD(U) ticket. Dulu Mahto has held the unreserved seat since 2009.
  
  At the time of publishing, BJP's Dulu Mahto is leading against Congress' Jaleshwar Mahto. 
   
• Jharia: The seat is witness to a bloody family feud between Ragini Singh, wife of incumbent MLA Sanjeev Singh and her sister-in-law Purnima Singh. The incumbent MLA Sanjeev Singh is being tried for killing his political rival and cousin Niraj Singh. Niraj's widow Purnima has been nominated on a Congress ticket for the constituency which has a history of gun violence. The political battlefield seat is a BJP bastion and has been held by the saffron party since 2004.
  
  At the time of publishing, Congress' Purnima Niraj Singh is leading. 

As the BJP trails in Jharkhand, party president Amit Shah has said that they accept the mandate and thanked the people of the state on Monday. Taking to Twitter, Shah said that the party is dedicated towards the development in the state and congratulated the party workers and cadre for their hard work. As per trends at the time of publishing, JMM and alliance is leading on 46 seats and BJP on 25 seats. 

Soren on Jharkhand electoral victory

"The voters of Jharkhand are responsible for this mandate and I wish to thank them," he said. When asked who led the coalition, he added, "Let them debate on this, it does not matter to me. But it is true that in our coalition there was Congress, JMM and RJD. We fought together and we were victorious in defeating BJP."

Soren wins Dumka & Barhait

Hemant Soren who had contested from both Dumka and Barhait, like 2014, has won both seats as per EC trends. In Dumka, Soren won by a margin of 13188 votes and in Barhait he won by a margin of 25740 votes. Soren who was Jharkhand CM from July 2013- December 2014, is set to be CM again.

Raghubar Das tenders his resignation to Governor Draupadi Murmu