Jharkhand Exit polls: JMM-Cong alliance projected to have an edge over incumbent BJP

With the much-awaited results for the Jharkhand State Assembly polls on Monday, the Republic Jan Ki Baat Exit Polls have predicted the BJP failing to cross the halfway mark in the 81-seat Assembly. The Congress-JMM-RJD (UPA) alliance is predicted to have an edge over the incumbent BJP government. The BJP which had a fallout with its ally All Jharkhand Students Union and Lok Janshakti Party, faces the formidable combination of Congress, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and other parties like LJP, AJSU, JVM. AJSU and LJP who are fielding candidates against the BJP and UPA may combine with BJP post-results. 

Jharkhand Exit Polls:

Seat Share:

The UPA is projected to win 37-46 seats defeating the BJP which is projected to win only 22-30 seats. Meanwhile, AJSU is projected to win 3-5 seats, JVM is projected to win 3-4 seats. Other parties including  LJP, AJSU, JVM, CPI(M) are set to win 5-7 seats. 

• JMM+ : 37-46
• BJP: 22-30
• AJSU: 3-5
• JVM: 3-4
• Others: 5-7

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Vote Share:

The UPA is projected to garner 40% of the vote share, leading over the BJP which is set to gain 33% of the vote share. Meanwhile, the AJSU is projected to gain 9% of the vote share and JVM is projected to gain 7%. Other parties are set to garner 11% of the vote share.

• UPA: 40%
• BJP: 33%
• AJSU: 9%
• JVM: 7%
• Others: 11%

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Key poll factors:

The main factor which is working against BJP CM Raghubar Das is anti-incumbency. Das, who previously served under the Soren government in 2009, is the first non-tribal chief minister of the state and hence is not the tribal majority's pick for CM. Moreover, the recent poll debacle in Haryana and Maharashtra may not favour the incumbent BJP.

Another factor that has angered the tribals is the attempted amendment to the Chhotanagpur and Santhal Pargana tenancy Acts in 2016. While governor Droupadi Murmu had turned down the amendments  in2017 after widespread protests from tribal groups, the  Tribal Advisory Committee (TAC) headed by Raghubar Das had formed mulled over gathering 'public opinion' on amending key points of these acts. This has led to widespread distrust against the government in the community.

Under the Chhotanagpur Tenancy (CNT) Act, only a tribal can purchase or sell land to another tribal belonging to the same thana area with permission from the DC concerned. The CNT Act is not applicable in Santhal Pargana districts of Dumka, Godda, Pakur, Sahebganj, Jamtara and Deoghar, where the Santhal Pargana Tenancy (SPT) Act is in force. The SPT Act does not allow any type of land transfer.

Moreover, the Pathalgadi movement which is strong in these tribal areas is a major challenge faced by the BJP government since 2017. Under this movement, activists have put up stone tablets in 200 districts of Jharkhand explaining the provisions in the Indian Constitution relating to tribal autonomy as interpreted by Adivasis. The state government has cracked down heavily against the movement, booking sedition cases against almost 10,000 Adivasis, as per reports.

The last key factor is also the current slowdown in the coal industry. Jharkhand which amounts to 40% of the total mineral resources in India has not translated in the rise in jobs in the area. The dipping economy and the scam-hit coal industry has been a worry for the residents, which is unfavourable to the BJP.

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2014 Assembly polls

The last Jharkhand state polls saw the BJP sweep the elections after the first Modi wave winning 37 seats. Along with an alliance with AJSU and some defected JVM MLAs, the BJP successfully formed the government ushering Jharkhand's first non-tribal CM. The JMM which had held the government in the state managed to win only 19 seats, while the Congress was left with only 6 seats.

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2019 Lok Sabha polls

Amid the larger mandate victory of the NDA, Jharkhand saw the BJP retain its 12 Lok Sabha seats. The JMM led by Shibu Soren managed to retain its 2 seats. The Lok Sabha polls saw the NDA re-elected to power with 353 seats, while the UPA won only 92 seats.