National Approval Ratings: In Uttarakhand, BJP-led NDA projected to be at the top of the order leaving UPA down to zero

With the dates for the all-important Lok Sabha polls now announced, the various political parties and the citizens of India have complete clarity on exactly when the country will once again undertake the largest exercise in democracy anywhere in the world. To present a snapshot projection of where the various parties stand at the moment in different states, Republic TV and CVoter have published the National Approval Ratings which present a complete picture of what would happen if elections are held today.

With 5 seats in its kitty, here is the projection for the state of Uttarakhand:

Seat Share 

• UPA: 0 seat
• NDA: 5 seats
• Others: 0 seats

Vote Share

• UPA: 36.8%
• NDA: 50.3%
• Others: 12.9%

Projections:

• As per the projections, the BJP is getting 29 seats in Uttar Pradesh alongside ally Apna Dal, the Congress contesting alone is getting 4 seats and the SP-BSP Mahagathbandhan is getting 47 seats. This comes at a time when the Modi government has already filed a petition seeking the undisputed land in Ayodhya be returned to the rightful owners and at the back of an 8-week mediation deadline being set by the top court to resolve the Ayodhya issue.
• In terms of vote share, the RepublicTVC-Voter projection is that the BJP alliance will get a whopping 41% vote share, the Congress will get 10.4% vote share and the Mahagathbandhan will get 43.4% vote share. Meaning, that the Mahagathbandhan as per Yashwant’s analysis is still in the lead, in terms of vote share albeit marginally, while Congress seems to be the biggest loser in the state.

Comparison to 2014:

• The BJP is projected to see a 43 seat decline from its 2014 performance of winning 71 seats while the NDA as a whole is projected to see a 44 seat decline. However, interestingly, this comes alongside a minor 1.4% fall in vote share. Hinting it might just be a close contest in most of the constituencies.
•  A 2014 comparison to the projections in March 2019 shows that the Congress had seen a 2 seat increase alongside a decrease in vote share by 0.6%, despite the anti-incumbency of the BJP both at the state and central level.
• And the Mahagathbandhan which was not in place in 2014 is projected to harvest massive gains by coming together in an alliance by cobbling a majority seat share of 47 seats in the state against a combined value of just 5 seats in 2014. This massive seat share is projected to be accompanied with a vote share of 43.4% which is higher than the combined vote share of the BSP and SP in 2014.

Read: National Approval Ratings: BJP-led NDA Projected To Clean Sweep Uttarakhand

January edition: Uttarakhand, which has five seats in the Lok Sabha, was clean sweeped by the BJP-led NDA in 2014. And as per the January edition of the National Approval Ratings, the situation was projected to remain the same.

NDA: Nothing has changed for the party/alliance which won all the seats in 2014. In each and every edition of the NAR, they have been projected to clean sweep the state with close to 50% of votes. And in January, it is projected to remain the same.

UPA: The Congress-led UPA, across all the editions of the NAR, has been projected to not win even a single seat. 

The months preceding the latest National Approval Ratings have witnessed a number of massive developments that may have a big impact on the on-ground sentiment as the phase-wise voting approaches. A parallel CVoter survey has already indicated that citizens' satisfaction with the performance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been on an upswing since the Feb 1 budget where a number of significant announcements were made - especially for farmers and for middle-class taxpayers. This satisfaction index the skyrocketed following India's air-strike against Pakistani terror bases across the LoC. Simultaneously, the satisfaction index of Congress president Rahul Gandhi has spiralled downward in the same time-frame.